How Do Same-Game Parlays Work?

What does it mean to do a parlay on a single game as opposed to multiple games, which is the traditional version of a parlay? We’ll give you some examples.

NFL Same-Game Parlay

The typical NFL SGP can feature a sky-is-the-limit string of picks.

One of the easier event outcomes is the anytime touchdown. That gives some leeway to the bettor. An NFL player need not score a touchdown at a specific time. They only need to score a touchdown sometime during the game. It adds a specific excitement as the focus is only on that contest for the bettor.

If you look at the drop-down menus on sites like DraftKings, that is where the menu opens considerably and wagers can be made above the typical offerings. For example, here was a Super Bowl same-game parlay.

• Joe Mixon under 69.5 yards
• Odell Beckham over 4 receptions
• Cooper Kupp over 90 receiving yards
• Los Angeles Rams record 4+ sacks
• First quarter under 10.5 points
• Tyler Boyd anytime touchdown
• Matthew Stafford 2+ passing touchdowns

Something to be noted is the distinctions one can make while wagering. This seven-legged parlay came in at a tidy +3500. However, it did not win because Odell Beckham Jr. tore his ACL early in the game. A bettor can go much more modest or stretch things out. This is partly why same-game parlays are so alluring.

NBA Same-Game Parlay

The 2022 NBA Finals offered some different possibilities as well. There are lots of events in an NBA game that can be bet. Below is an example from Game 5 of the Boston Celtics-Golden State Warriors series.

This was created by one bettor at Sports Illustrated:

• Jayson Tatum 40+ points plus rebounds plus assists
• Warriors over 104.5 total team points
• Steph Curry 5+ three-pointers
• Steph Curry under 6.5 assists

Again, the amount of options once a bettor drop-downs on menus becomes quite expansive. This parlay would have paid out at +450 but it didn’t pan out. It was the game where Steph Curry made no three-point shots, resulting in the entire parlay as a loss.

MLB Same-Game Parlay

Regular season baseball choices for same-game parlays can feel almost overwhelming. The options are practically endless and can be easily tied together. One can use player narratives, game narratives, or a combination of both.

Here is a same-game parlay with a game theme:

• Los Angeles Dodgers to win
• Walker Buehler Over 5.5 strikeouts
• Max Fried Over 5.5 strikeouts
• Mookie Betts Over 1.5 hits

The odds for this MLB SGP were +4500. A $10 wager would have paid out $450.

One can see how the events can be tied together from a looser sense. For Los Angeles to win, a good performance from Buehler is needed, probably with a good night from Mookie Betts. These performances can be considered correlated in a Dodgers victory.

NHL Same-Game Parlay

The National Hockey League gained some options for the same-game parlay.

Below is an example of a three-legged SGP from Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final:

• Avalanche to win moneyline (-120)
• Under 6.5 goals scored (-150)
• Nathan MacKinnon anytime goal scorer (+140)

This modest SGP wager had +550 odds, so $10 made a bettor $55. While this was a well-reasoned parlay, wins like these are still more the exception than the rule.

Parlays are the worst bets from the standpoint of turning a profit over the long run, so picking your spots wisely is necessary to take reasonable long shots as not all same-game parlays are equal. Let’s look at Nevada data on the industry’s win rate against sports bettors.

Nevada, the oldest sports betting state in the country, releases data to the public on its gaming industry. Since 1992, Nevada sportsbooks have had an average win percentage on parlays of 30.97%, according to data compiled by the University of Nevada Las Vegas Center for Gaming Research. That win percentage dwarfs that of straight (single-market) bets.

Overall casino win percentage on sports bets since inception in Nevada is approximately 5.6%. The average win percentage—the share of the total money wagered that the casino kept—on football is approximately 5.2%, for example. Also of note: Nevada casinos have lost money on the Super Bowl just twice in over three decades.

For a casino, sports betting has the worst margins out of any game, so sportsbooks are an amenity designed to bring people in the door to wager on, for example, roulette, which gives a casino a roughly 20% win percentage.

For this reason, sports betting is the most beatable house-banked casino game. Skill is involved, with bettors being able to make informed decisions to boost their chances.

Parlays account for a small percentage of the overall handle, but they are the most profitable for sportsbooks. Naturally, publicly traded online sports betting companies offering bets across the country are looking to parlays to become profitable.

Tyler Maher | Forbes Betting

Entertainment Value?

The so-called entertainment value of the same-game parlay is a key feature. Where the traditional parlay is spread out over more games and teams, the same-game or one-game option allows the wagerer to zero in on one contest.

You don’t have to switch the channel or stream to follow the results of your wager. You can simply do a SGP on your favorite team.

If you’re looking to place a same-game parlay that won’t be graded as a loss until the contest is over or nearly over, you could, for example, do a parlay on which players will hit a home run in a specific baseball game.

While your chances of winning your bet diminish the longer the game goes without one of those players hitting a homer, it’s not over until it’s over.

Same-game parlays and their allure help the sportsbook’s bottom line immensely. The attraction of “pumped up” payouts can draw anyone in.

Most wagerers probably would not understand the algorithms sportsbooks utilize for these bets, but the betting public can’t because the algorithms are kept secret.

Obviously, as the number of legs goes up, the likelihood of winning falls precipitously. The chance that the sportsbook wins is much greater than 50%. Over a short time frame the bettor may benefit. When it comes to the longer haul, the sportsbook cashes in.

There have been some unsubstantiated reports indicating same-game parlays are now accounting for more than half of all parlay dollars bet. State gaming regulators release data on the amount bet on parlays, but they don’t break it down by type of parlay.

Straight bets often favor the bettor more because of the one-to-one nature. Even regular parlay bets are a bit more advantageous to the wagerer. Income generated in the 6-10 times plus range is a boon for books when it comes to same-game parlays.

Nearly every regulated online sportsbook in the U.S. offers SGPs, including the ones below.

• FanDuel Sportsbook: FanDuel is known for having one of the smoothest interfaces in the industry. New customers can claim $200 in bonus bets by placing a $5+ wager after signing up.
• DraftKings Sportsbook: DraftKings is on par with FanDuel and has a Parlay Builder tool that makes it easy to assemble parlays for almost any game. New users can get $150 in bonus bets guaranteed when they win their first $5+ wager after signing up.
• BetMGM Sportsbook: BetMGM also has a user-friendly layout that makes building parlays incredibly easy. New players at BetMGM can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if their first wager loses using the promo code FORBES.
• Caesars Sportsbook: Caesars has the most extensive array of odds boosts in the industry. New users can claim a bonus bet up to $1,000 with the bonus code FORBES1000.
• Bet365 Sportsbook: Bet365 is a British-based gambling company with an outstanding global reputation. New customers can claim up to $1,000 in bonuses using the promo code FORBES.
• Fanatics Sportsbook: Previously PointsBet Sportsbook, Fanatics launched in 2023 and is one of the newest sportsbooks on the market. New users can earn up to $100 in bonus bets each day for 10 days.
• BetRivers Sportsbook: BetRivers has more of a local flavor compared to bigger-name sportsbooks. Its welcome offer varies by state and ranges between $100 and $500 in bonus bets if you use the bonus code SPORTS.
• ESPN BET Sportsbook: ESPN BET debuted in 2023 and has quickly established itself as one of the stronger online sportsbooks on the market.
• Hard Rock Bet: Hard Rock Bet launched in 2019 and features a modern app with plenty of bells and whistles.

Betting on a same-game parlay is mostly straightforward. Again, be aware of the abundance of possibilities. With online apps, it becomes almost as easy as point and click depending on which sportsbook one chooses.

Shopping Around the Sportsbooks

Always compare prices at different online sportsbooks, as many use different third-party odds suppliers. This applies to all forms of sports betting.

For same-game parlays, one leg that is 25 or 50 cents on the dollar different from another book could mean quite a few dollars difference, especially over time.

Developing a Theory for the Game

Correlating wagers helps develop theories for betting same-game parlays. That does not guarantee winning, however.

Now, the degree of correlation is not always clear. Sometimes, it is very obvious.

For example, betting on a game at Coors Field is probably different than at Citi Field. Citi Field run production ranks near the bottom of the league, while Coors Field is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. An SGP involving home runs from multiple players would make more sense at a hitter-friendly park, though the price you get would reflect that.

The key is to try and develop game theory sensibly. Do not wish for an outcome to happen as much as attempting to research more sound outcomes.

Yes, one may not win anyway, but again do not get too big of a head. That is when wagers go up and the disastrous results may too. Too many legs can cloud the true level of correlation between those legs.

It is part of the reason why SPGs are often called lottery-style sports betting games because one sweats out a multitude of parts from one contest.

For the rare person who can make a living from sports betting, a process called game scripting is common. Game scripting is a private program or system that predicts possible outcomes for games. It allows the bettor to theorize ways to bet more. This is helpful for same-game parlays. This is not something for the casual bettor to be concerned about.

Determining a Bet Size

Determining a bet size for same-game parlays is probably the smartest strategy other than not betting them at all. There can be money to be made, but again, the chances are much lower compared to the typical bet. Know your risks.

For example, an average same-game parlay ideally should involve a very low percentage of your betting payout for a typical night. If one wagers $50 or $100 a night, toss a few dollars, no more than say $10 at first, on a SGP.

The bait of being tempted to bet larger sums of money is very real. Do not give in. Bet within your limits and never exceed them, especially when it comes to same-game parlays.