Aaron Judge Stats: Home Run Total Line & Odds For 2023 MLB Season

According to oddsmakers, Judge will hit far fewer home runs in 2023 than his 62 in 2022. The over/under line for his 2023 home run total was 45.5 (-115/-110) on DraftKings Sportsbook heading into the season.

Based on Judge’s career so far, however, this line made sense. Excluding his cup of coffee in 2016 and the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, Judge averaged 41.4 homers over his first five full seasons. His home run totals in those years have varied wildly due to injuries though, ranging from 27 (twice) to 62, with seasons of 39 and 52 in between.

Judge’s age and injury history were baked into this futures bet as well. The reigning AL MVP turned 31 in April, which is around the age when baseball players start to leave their physical primes and begin declining. Some studies have also shown that players with bigger bodies, such as Judge, tend to diminish more rapidly in their 30s.

The massive outfielder has also had trouble staying healthy. While he played a career-high 157 games in 2022, he missed considerable time every year from 2018-2020, appearing in only 63 percent of New York’s regular-season games during that span. Judge isn’t guaranteed to play a full season, so projections are expecting him to miss some games and have adjusted his home run total down accordingly. You can’t hit bombs when you’re injured.

There’s also the inescapable pull of regression to the mean, which is the statistical trend of numbers reverting to their historical averages. This is especially likely in the case of Judge, whose 2022 was a clear anomaly.

As mentioned, nobody in AL history had ever hit 62 home runs, so it’s unwise to expect him to do it again. His previous high was 52, and only two players have ever had multiple seasons of 60+ home runs. That would be the aforementioned duo of McGwire and Sosa, both of whom accomplished that during baseball’s steroid era and were later proven to be juicing. Babe Ruth fell from 60 to 54 the following year, Maris plummeted from 61 to 33, and Bonds plunged from 73 to 46, so it’s fair to expect a notable drop-off from Judge as well.

So how many home runs should we expect Judge to hit in 2023? That will largely depend on his health. If he’s able to stay in the lineup for 140-150 games, over 45.5 is possible for him, as he’s already cleared that number twice in five full seasons. If he misses extensive time with an injury again, he’s likely going to fall short and end up closer to his average of 41.

It’s also worth noting that while 45.5 is well below 62, it’s still a huge total in MLB’s current offensive environment. Only two players went over that number in 2022—Judge (62) and Kyle Schwarber (46). Home runs declined across the sport in 2022 thanks to the installation of more humidors throughout the league and deader baseballs, both of which reduced the average travel distance of hits.

It’s possible nobody will reach 45.5 in 2023, not even Judge, especially with how often he walks and strikes out. He already led the AL in free passes in 2022 with 111 and often gets pitched around, which limits his number of opportunities. He only put the ball in play in 59 percent of his plate appearances in 2022, and obviously you can’t hit a home run without actually hitting the ball first.

Baseball sports bettors should also be aware that Judge’s line of 45.5 home runs wasn’t set in stone. It could shift throughout the season depending on his performance and health status. A hot start with a pace for another 50- or 60-homer season could cause the line to rise accordingly.

Through the end of May in the 2023 season, Judge had hit 18 homers. He had 18 homers through the end of May in 2022. That said, the over/under bet was no longer available at the aforementioned betting site. It could be reposted around the All-Star break. An alternative bet that we were able to locate was on FanDuel Sportsbook, which listed Judge as the favorite to lead MLB in home runs in 2023.

MLB futures bets don’t need to be placed before Opening Day, and much can change over the course of a season, so keep an eye on this line if you’d prefer to place your wager in-season.

One factor that’s hard to quantify is Judge’s motivation level in 2023.

In 2022, he was playing for a new contract, as he was set to become a free agent after the season. That gave him more of an incentive to crush, as a big year would lead to a big payday.

The Yankees tried to lock him up before the season started, offering him a seven-year, $213.5 million contract extension. Judge rejected the offer and chose to bet on himself, believing he could score an even bigger deal on the open market.

Judge was right. The decision worked out in his favor, as he dramatically increased his value by authoring one of the best offensive seasons of all time.

He entered the winter as the top free agent on the market, forcing New York to outbid other teams in order to keep him. The Yankees ultimately gave him the largest free-agent contract in baseball history in terms of total value, inking him to a nine-year, $360 million deal. They also named him the team’s first captain since Derek Jeter retired in 2014.

Judge entered 2023 with a $40 million salary, the third-highest in baseball behind only pitchers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, both of whom will make $43.3 million this year. It is the highest salary ever for a position player.

With Judge set for life, it’s fair to wonder if he will stop trying as hard now that he no longer has a financial incentive to play well. He’s still never won a World Series, however, so one has to imagine that will keep him motivated for the foreseeable future.

After going deep 62 times last year, Judge entered 2023 with 220 career home runs, more than half of which (114) came in 2017 and 2022 combined.

Nevertheless, 220 is an impressive total for someone who’s only been in the big leagues for seven years, two of which he barely played. It’s also a lot for someone heading into his age-31 season and for a player whose career might not even be half over, as he’s now under contract for nine more seasons.

With another quality season in 2023, Judge will be more than halfway to 500 career home runs, which is an important milestone for getting into the Hall of Fame. Of the 28 players in the 500 club, 19 have plaques hanging in Cooperstown. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are expected to be elected as well once they hit the ballot, and the only eligible players who haven’t been inducted yet have all been linked to PEDs.

Because of injuries, Covid-19, and a relatively late start to his career (he didn’t play his first full season until he was 25), Judge still has a ways to go on the all-time homer list.

Entering the 2023 season, he ranked tied with Hall of Famer Tony Oliva for 308th all time and was 102nd through his age-30 season, one dinger ahead of fellow Yankees legend Joe DiMaggio.

For comparison, 26 players had already reached 300 career home runs by the end of their age-30 season and five players had already surpassed 400, so Judge still has some ground to make up if he’s ultimately going to catch some of the game’s immortal sluggers.

After clobbering 101 homers over the last two seasons combined, Judge is climbing the leaderboards at a rapid pace and appears poised to take another big leap in 2023.

As mentioned, Covid-19 and injuries have caused Judge’s regular-season numbers to fluctuate drastically from year to year, making him one of the less consistent stars in baseball.

Still, his talent has always been evident whenever he’s been on the field, reflected in his outstanding rate stats. While he struggled during his brief call-up at the end of the 2016 season, the numbers show that he’s been one of the best hitters on a per-game basis ever since.

2016 NY Yankees (84-78)

This was a transition year for the Yankees, who phased out aging superstars like Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira while integrating young stars like Judge and Gary Sanchez. New York missed the playoffs as a result but still finished above .500.

Like many hitters, Judge struggled in his first taste of the big leagues, batting just .179/.263/.345 and striking out 42 times in 95 plate appearances after being promoted in August. In the end, both Judge and the Yankees fell short of expectations.

• Runs: 10
• Home Runs: 4
• RBI: 10
• Stolen Bases: 0
• Batting Average: .179
• OPS:.608

2017 NY Yankees (91-71)

Judge and the Yankees both made major strides together in 2017.

Judge established himself as a superstar by shattering Mark McGwire’s rookie home run record of 49, which had stood since 1987. He also helped lead New York to 91 wins and an ALCS appearance. They came up short against the Houston Astros, with the Yankees falling in seven games and Judge finishing runner-up to Astros second baseman Jose Altuve in the MVP voting.

• Runs: 128
• Home Runs: 52
• RBI: 114
• Stolen Bases: 9
• Batting Average: .284
• OPS: 1.049

2018 NY Yankees (100-62)

The Yankees won 100 games under new manager Aaron Boone and likely would have won more had Judge not missed 50 games with injuries. His counting numbers declined precipitously as a result, although his rate stats remained strong. Judge still made his second All-Star team and finished 12th in MVP voting, although New York bowed out in the playoffs against the Boston Red Sox in the ALDS.

• Runs: 77
• Home Runs: 27
• RBI: 67
• Stolen Bases: 6
• Batting Average: .278
• OPS: .919

2019 NY Yankees (103-59)

This season was a near carbon copy of 2018 for Judge, who once again missed substantial time with injuries and finished with nearly identical numbers. The Yankees suffered a case of deja vu as well, losing to the Astros in the ALCS for the second time in three years.

• Runs: 75
• Home Runs: 27
• RBI: 55
• Stolen Bases: 3
• Batting Average: .272
• OPS: .921

2020 NY Yankees (33-27)

This year brought more of the same for both Judge and the Yankees. Judge once again struggled to stay healthy, appearing in just 28 of the 60 games during the pandemic-shortened regular season. Meanwhile, 2020 brought another early playoff exit for New York, who lost in five games to the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS.

• Runs: 23
• Home Runs: 9
• RBI: 22
• Stolen Bases: 0
• Batting Average: .257
• OPS: .891

2021 NY Yankees (92-70)

Judge was able to stay healthy for the first time since 2017 and put up big numbers as a result, falling just short of 40 homers and 100 RBIs. He helped the Yankees make the playoffs for the fifth straight year, but unfortunately they didn’t get far, losing the Wild Card Game to the Red Sox at Fenway Park. Despite the disappointing finish, it was a remarkable individual season for Judge, who was an All-Star and Silver Slugger while finishing fourth for MVP.

• Runs: 89
• Home Runs: 39
• RBI: 98
• Stolen Bases: 6
• Batting Average: .287
• OPS: .916

2022 NY Yankees (99-63)

With good health and a contract on the line, Judge delivered the best year of his career in 2022. Not only did he break the AL record for home runs, but he also set career highs in just about every other category. He carried the Yankees to the postseason as they slumped in the second half, earning his first MVP award for his historic season. It still wasn’t enough to put his team over the top in October, as New York was swept by Houston in the ALCS.

• Runs: 133
• Home Runs: 62
• RBI: 131
• Stolen Bases: 16
• Batting Average: .311
• OPS: 1.111

What kind of numbers will Judge post in 2023? We’ll just have to wait and see.