On Sept. 1, 2023, New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge made MLB history by becoming the fastest to reach 250 career home runs with a solo shot off Justin Verlander.
Judge’s 250th home run came in his 810th career game, 45 fewer than the previous record-holder, Ryan Howard.
Judge missed nearly two months in 2023 with a toe injury but still hit 37 home runs in 106 games, giving him 257 in his eight-year career.
With the 2024 season set to start and Judge healthy, he has a chance to reach 300 career home runs this year.
Here’s a look at what it would take for Judge to hit the milestone in 2024 and how bettors could profit either way.
Aaron Judge 2024 Prediction
Judge entered the 2024 season with 257 career home runs, 43 shy of 300.
Judge has the power and pedigree to hit 43 homers in a season, but it’s obviously not a lock.
He’s only reached that number twice in his career, surpassing it in 2017 and 2022. Injuries and the pandemic have limited his playing time in other seasons, causing him to average 104.4 games per year.
Judge has only played three full seasons in his career, missing significant time in four of the last six campaigns. Injuries are hard to avoid in baseball, especially when you’re six-foot-seven and 282 pounds.
In 2018, Judge missed nearly two months after getting hit in the hand with a fastball. The following year, he missed two months with an oblique strain.
In both years, he finished with 27 home runs.
In 2020, Judge again missed time with injury, enduring two separate calf strains. With the schedule being shortened to 60 games due to Covid, Judge appeared in just 28 contests.
In 2023, Judge sprained his big toe while making a catch at the wall at Dodger Stadium, costing him nearly two months. He also had a brief stint on the DL with a hip strain.
To recap, Judge’s full seasons have gone like this:
- 2017: 155 games, 52 home runs
- 2018: 112 games, 27 home runs
- 2019: 102 games, 27 home runs
- 2021: 148 games, 39 home runs
- 2022: 157 games, 62 home runs
- 2023: 106 games, 37 home runs
Looking at his whole career, Judge has 257 home runs in 835 games – an average of one home run every 3.25 games.
At that pace, he would need to play at least 140 games this season to hit 43 home runs.
That’s not guaranteed given Judge’s age (he turns 32 this year) and injury history. He already dealt with an abdomen injury in Spring Training this year, which isn’t a positive sign.
It’s hard for anyone to hit 43 home runs, even an elite slugger like Judge.
Only a handful of players typically reach that number each year, as there were four in 2023, two in 2022 and four in 2021.
Betting on Aaron Judge to Reach 300 Career HRs
As of March, DraftKings Sportsbook allowed baseball bettors to wager on whether Judge would hit his 300th home run.
The odds are subject to change as the season unfolds. DraftKings might take down the betting market later.
Will Judge Hit 300th HR in the 2024 Regular Season?
- Yes: -135
- No: +105
Judge reaching 300 career home runs in 2024 has a 57.45% implied probability.
Judge’s home run total prop at DraftKings is 41.5. Over 41.5 home runs has juiced odds of -125, while the Under has odds of +105. The odds are also subject to change as the season develops.
This line is only 1.5 home runs away from the 43 needed for 300, so a bet on the Over here is essentially the same as betting on him to hit his 300th in 2024.
Observant bettors will notice a discrepancy.
Judge has -125 odds to hit over 41.5 home runs but -135 odds to reach 300 home runs, requiring 43 home runs. Judge hitting 43 home runs is slightly less likely than him hitting 42 home runs, but the price is higher (wager $135 to win $100 versus wager $125 to win $100).
In other words, the special has worse odds for a riskier bet. You’re better off taking the Over on Judge’s home run prop.
If you want to take the Under on Judge’s home run total, however, the special market has more value. The special market has +105 odds of Judge going under 42.5 home runs, whereas his regular prop line has +105 odds of him going under 41.5 home runs.
In this case, the special market is the better wager because it has the same payout and gives you extra cushion if Judge finishes with exactly 42 home runs.
Unfortunately, you can’t arbitrage Judge’s home run bets.
Can Judge Stay Healthy?
Ultimately, these markets are more of a bet on Judge’s health than his performance.
If Judge stays healthy enough to play close to a full season, he’ll likely go over his home run prop and reach 300 career homers. If he misses substantial time again, however, he’ll likely fall short.
If you think Judge will stay healthy and hit a lot of home runs, consider the Over on his RBI total (105.5) as well.
Depending on how Yankees manager Aaron Boone constructs his lineup, Judge could have more RBI opportunities if Juan Soto (career .421 on-base percentage) bats in front of him.
If you’re bullish on Judge, it’s worth betting on him to win AL MVP at +550.
After trading for Soto in the offseason, New York is expected to be one of the best teams in baseball this year and has the third-shortest World Series odds (+750) entering the season.
If the Yankees play up to their potential and Judge has a big season, he’ll be a strong candidate to win his second MVP award. It also helps that Shohei Ohtani, who won two of the last three American League MVP trophies, is now in the National League.
If you don’t feel confident about Judge’s health, there will still be plenty of opportunities to wager on his prop bets throughout the season, including Opening Day.
Photo by Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
