How To Bet On Aaron Judge And The MLB Home Run Record

In many cases, it’s only possible to wager on a player’s full-year statistics before the season starts. Bets are usually in an Over/Under format, allowing bettors to choose whether a player will exceed or fall short of a specific total. Odds are often close to even and identical on both sides.

For example, DraftKings set the Over/Under for Judge’s home run total at 41.5 prior to the 2024 campaign. Judge had -125 odds of hitting the Over and +105 odds of hitting the Under.

Judge didn’t take long to cash the Over, clobbering his 42nd home run of the season on Aug. 11 against the Texas Rangers with 43 games to spare.

While sportsbooks don’t typically offer Over/Under futures bets for players this late in the season, DraftKings has made an exception for Judge as he nears his AL record of 62 homers. You can find the following betting market under the “Player Season Specials” of DraftKings’ MLB section.

Aaron Judge Regular Season Total HRs

• Over 62.5: -110
• Under 62.5 -110

As you can see, Judge has the same odds of breaking his record as not breaking his record, suggesting the bet is a toss-up.

Given that, let’s take a closer look at Judge’s statistics and recent home run trends this year to get a better sense of his chances.

Aaron Judge Home Run Pace

With 51 home runs under his belt, Judge needs 12 more to break his record and hit the Over at DraftKings. The Yankees have 31 games left and are in a tight divisional race with the Baltimore Orioles, so assuming Judge plays every game, he’ll need to average a home run every 2.58 games.

Judge has 51 long balls in 129 games played this season, averaging one homer every 2.53 games. If Judge maintains that pace and plays in every remaining game, he’ll finish with 63 homers and hit the Over.

It’s also worth noting that Judge got off to a slow start this year, so his home run rate has been even more furious lately. He has 45 homers over his last 94 games (one every 2.09 games), including 16 over his last 27 games. He went deep seven times in six games last week alone, so he’s only getting hotter.

Judge should also get a few extra plate appearances as he approaches the record, as manager Aaron Boone will likely move him up in the batting order. Judge has batted third in every game this season, but Boone moved Judge up to the leadoff spot when he was pursuing Maris two years ago and will probably do so again.

That said, Judge has little margin for error. He’s on pace to finish with 63 home runs, which barely clears the Over. If he misses time with an injury or goes into a slump, he may not have enough games left to recover. 

Home run rates also typically decline in September compared to the warmer months of July and August, when home run rates are at their peak. Judge has only missed two games all season, so he may start to wear down as fatigue catches up to him.

Judge has put himself in a good position to break the record, but he still needs to finish the season strong.

Prediction

It’s a tough call, but we’re betting on Judge to stay hot and exceed 62.5 home runs.

With Judge, no home run record is safe.

As a rookie in 2017, Judge shattered Mark McGwire’s 30-year-old record for most home runs by a rookie. Judge launched 15 four-baggers in September to blow past McGwire’s mark of 49, finishing with 52 (which Pete Alonso broke two years later).

In 2022, Judge made history again, belting 16 homers over his final 39 games to eclipse Maris despite frequently being pitched around. Judge averaged more than one walk per game during that stretch, drawing 11 intentional walks.

Judge has already made history in 2024. On Aug. 14 against the historically bad Chicago White Sox, he became the fastest player in MLB history to reach 300 career big flies.

While Judge faced intense pressure in 2022 while going after a 61-year-old record, the stakes are considerably lower this time around. He’s only chasing himself, so he should feel more relaxed. The 32-year-old has proven he can handle the extra media attention and knows what to expect now.

Judge should also benefit from the presence of Juan Soto. If Boone moves Judge up to leadoff, he’ll have Soto hitting directly behind him. Soto is having an MVP-caliber season at the plate as well, so Judge should see more hittable pitches compared to two years ago, when he had very little lineup protection.

Lastly, Judge is simply a better hitter than he was in 2022. His batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage are all considerably higher. He’s also walking more and striking out less, indicating better pitch recognition and a more polished approach.

Judge still has a ways to go, but at this point we don’t see much reason to bet against him.

• Judge has gone yard at Yankee Stadium once every 8.3 at-bats and on the road once every 9.8 at-bats this year. The Yankees play 16 of their final 31 games at home.
• Judge has done most of his damage with one out. He has 28 homers with one out compared to 12 with no outs and 11 with two outs.
• Judge has 25 homers with the bases empty and 26 homers with men on base.
• Judge has hit 27 homers in innings 1-3 (including 18 in the first inning), 10 in innings 4-6 and 14 in innings 7-9. He has not homered in the second inning or in extra innings this year.
• Judge has destroyed National League pitching with 20 homers in 34 interleague games. New York has nine games remaining against NL opponents.
• Judge has played up to the competition, swatting 35 homers against teams with a .500 record or better versus 16 homers against teams with losing records. 

• Judge would become the first American League hitter to top 60 home runs multiple times.
• Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire are the only batters to reach 60 HR more than once. Sosa did it three times but did not win the home run title in any of those seasons. McGwire cleared 60 homers twice.
• Judge, Babe Ruth and Roger Maris are the only players to hit 60 homers who were never implicated or accused of using performance-enhancing drugs.
• All three 60-homer seasons in the American League came from Yankee players (Ruth, Maris and Judge).
• If Judge can hit as many as 18 homers in September, he would break Ruth’s franchise record of 17, set in 1927. Judge’s monthly high is 15, which he set in September 2017.

Sportswriter Tommy Holmes wrote of Babe Ruth: “Some 20 years ago, I stopped talking about the Babe for the simple reason that I realized that those who had never seen him didn’t believe me.”

George Herman “Babe” Ruth was an American original whose accomplishments have become mythic. But Ruth was no myth: His batting prowess was real. In 1927, he smashed 60 home runs, a shocking number at the time.

Consider this: In 1927, when Ruth hit 60 homers, no team (other than Babe and the Yankees) hit as many. The Philadelphia A’s, who finished in second that year, hit 55 home runs.

Ruth was a tremendous hitter ahead of his time. That’s why he acquired so many nicknames. Here are a few of Babe Ruth’s nicknames:

• The Great Bambino
• The Sultan of Swat
• The Colossus of Clout
• The Behemoth of Bust
• The Big Bam
• The Caliph of Clout
• The Big Fella

That last one would work for Judge, who at 6-foot-7 is five inches taller and about 40 pounds bigger than Ruth ever was (even with all those hot dogs Ruth used to eat).

If sports betting sites had existed in 1961, the home run odds for that season would have had Mickey Mantle as the favorite to break Babe Ruth’s single-season record.

Mantle was his generation’s most admired ballplayer. Somewhat like Mike Trout, Mantle was a gifted athlete who seemed capable of anything. Also like Trout, sadly, Mickey was hounded by injuries. 

But The Mick was a superstar who once hit a home run that measured 565 feet. He belted one at Yankee Stadium that struck the facade at the top of right field. If it hadn’t struck part of the stadium, that baseball might have traveled 600 feet.

But, in 1961, Mantle was joined in his pursuit of Ruth’s record by a shy teammate, one with far less fanfare.

Maris was from South Dakota, and superstars didn’t come from South Dakota. He had been acquired in a trade from the Kansas City A’s, a bat for hire, a corner outfielder expected to take pressure off an aging Mantle. But, he ended up doing a lot more than that.

Maris had a swing made for Yankee Stadium: It was quick, short, with a slight uppercut, and he frequently pulled pitches down the line. At Yankee Stadium, “The House That Ruth Built,” the right field foul pole was only 314 feet from home plate. It sat there like a cherry at the top of a sundae, taunting Maris and every other sweet-toothed left-handed power hitter.

In 1961, the American League added two new teams, the (expansion) Washington Senators and Los Angeles Angels. That decision, to increase the number of teams to 10 from eight, had a ripple effect that helped Mantle and Maris chase The Babe and 60 home runs.

Two more teams in the league meant 20-24 more pitchers. Those two dozen pitchers were not “major league” caliber in most cases, and it also meant other rosters were stretched thinner with pitching. AL batters feasted. Maris smashed nine home runs in 18 games against the new Senators. Mantle hit 11 in 17 games against the same team.

By August, it was unclear if the record would fall to Mantle or Maris. But in September, Maris surged, and by the final weekend of the season, he had 60 home runs entering a three-game, season-ending series against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. That season, he was helped by the increased schedule from 154 to 162 games.

On Oct. 1, 1961, in the final game of the season, Maris hit a patented high fly into the right field stands for his 61st homer. The single-season home run record stayed in the Yankee family.

If Judge gets to 62 homers and beyond in 2022, he will keep the American League single-season home run record in the Yankee family, which is probably how Ruth would have liked it. It’s unclear if Ruth would have understood how betting on sports works.

In a fitting parallel to Maris catching Ruth, it was another Yankee who finally passed Maris more than six decades later.

Aaron Judge was already an established superstar and fan favorite heading into the 2022 season. He burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2017, becoming the first rookie in MLB history to top 50 homers. With his hulking 6-foot-7 frame and titanic power, he was immediately hailed as the next Ruth.

Like Mantle, however, Judge saw his enormous potential dimmed by injuries. He missed considerable time in each of the next three seasons, leading some fans to wonder if he could ever stay healthy.

In 2022, Judge silenced the critics with a season for the ages. He appeared in a career-high 157 games, taking the field nearly every day. He came on strong after a slow start, clobbering 59 homers in a 130-game span from April 22 to Sept. 20.

After smashing his 60th homer on Sept. 20, Judge still had two full weeks to pass Maris. With the pressure mounting, he tied Maris on Sept. 28 before finally passing him on Oct. 4 – the penultimate day of the regular season. New York fans were mildly disappointed, however, that Judge hit his 61st and 62nd homers on the road.

The 62 homers helped Judge beat out two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani for his first AL MVP award. Perhaps drained by his pursuit of history, he struggled in the postseason, batting just .139/.184/.306 with 15 strikeouts in nine games as the Yankees were swept in the ALCS.

Two years later, Judge has another shot at history. Can he outdo himself? Time will tell.