Ronald Acuña Jr. sat at the All-Star Break with 21 home runs and 41 stolen bases, making him the best candidate this season to become the fifth member of the 40-40 (homers and stolen bases) club. He quickly added two more homers to his tally after the break.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, he had +175 odds to succeed and -215 odds to fail at reaching 40-40. The odds are subject to change based on his performances.
Because Acuña had already surpassed 40 steals, this was essentially a futures bet on whether or not he would reach 40 homers.
No player has gained membership to the 40-40 club since 2006, when Alfonso Soriano hit 46 dingers and stole 41 bases with the Washington Nationals. The other three members are Jose Canseco (1988), Barry Bonds (1996) and Alex Rodriguez (1998).
Does Acuña Have Enough Time?
Despite the 17-year drought, that does not mean we haven’t seen some speedy sluggers come close. Acuña made a run in 2019 but fell short, finishing with 41 homers and 37 steals.
Matt Kemp of the Los Angeles Dodgers came the closest, falling just a home run shy in 2011.
Through the roughly halfway point of the season, Acuña averaged just over four at-bats per game and about 17 at-bats per home run. In other words, he was homering roughly once every four games.
Assuming Acuña plays all of Atlanta’s remaining games, he will receive about 290 at-bats. Divide that by his home run pace, and you get about 17 dingers.
It will be close, as Acuña is on track to finish with 40. If this bet is still available in your state, we’d recommend betting a unit or two on Acuña here.
Acuña NL MVP Odds Favorite
Now let’s go back to the first member of the 40-40 club. In 1988, Jose Canseco hit 42 home runs and stole 40 bases for the pennant-winning Oakland A’s. He is the only member to achieve 40-40 while also winning an MVP award, but Acuña could become the second.
He was the -330 favorite to win the NL MVP at DraftKings as of mid-July.
Acuña is one of the few players with the power and speed to go 40-40. It also helps that he bats leadoff for the Braves, giving him more at-bats and opportunities to hit home runs.
Acuña has already met half the criteria to join the prestigious club. He does not need to steal another base for the rest of the season, putting the focus entirely on his bat.
Even if Acuña falls short of the 40-40 club again, he will still likely join the 30-30 club for the second time in his career. That would make him the second player in team history to go 30-30 multiple times, joining Ron Gant (1990 and 1991).
Acuña has a chance to accomplish something remarkable. He’s also having an MVP-caliber season for the team with the best record in baseball. Furthermore, he’s only 25 years old. If he doesn’t complete the 40-40 feat this season, he’ll likely have more chances in the future.
