Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
- When: Friday, July 14
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET / 6:38 p.m. PT
- Where: Angel Stadium (Anaheim, California)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Astros +135, Angels -155
- Runline: Astros +1.5 (-150), Angels -1.5 (+130)
- Total: Over/Under 8 Runs (-105/-115)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
After a short intermission to the MLB season for the All-Star Game festivities, returning to games that matter on Friday feels good. The matchup at the top of our list is the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels battling in Anaheim.
Friday is the first time Shohei Ohtani will pitch in a week-and-a-half, as he chose not to take the mound in the ASG on Tuesday. It will be interesting to see if the break does anything to help his recent struggles as a starter.
Before we get into Ohtani’s slump on the bump, let’s talk about his month at the plate in June.
The unicorn hit an eye-popping .394 with 15 home runs and an OPS of 1.444 in 104 at-bats. Considering he also made five starts during June, Ohtani had one of the best months ever by an MLB player.
Shotime slowed down at the start of July but still has two home runs and a triple in 25 at-bats.
While Ohtani proved historically impressive last month, there were a few bumps in the road. On the mound, Ohtani has been less than himself.
Ohtani’s 4.06 ERA in May was the first sign of trouble. The results would be considered a below-average month for most mortal starters, but for Ohtani, it was a bit of a shock.
He rebounded slightly in June with a 2-2 record and 3.26 ERA, but his lone start in July was a disaster.
A week before the All-Star Game, the San Diego Padres rocked Ohtani for five runs on seven hits over five innings. The phenom coughed up two home runs and walked four while striking out five.
Some pitchers don’t like taking time off, which interrupts their flow. It’s hard to say which side of the debate Ohtani falls. But the Angels are probably happy the All-Star break occurred when it did.
Letting Ohtani try to work through command issues wasn’t the answer, so maybe taking almost two weeks off will help get the potential Cy Young winner back on track.
With Houston’s current roster hitting just .230 all time with three home runs in 122 at-bats against Ohtani, the Astros could struggle at the plate and hand the Halos a win.
Friday won’t be much of a pitching duel, with J.P. France getting the nod for Houston. France has a pedestrian 4-3 record with a 3.26 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 66⅓ innings.
He’s allowed three or more runs in three of his last five starts and twice walked the same number of hitters he struck out.
Best Bet: Astros vs. Angels
It’s always tempting to try and beat the books with a spread bet on the Angels when Ohtani is pitching, but there are three big problems with that strategy on Friday. First is Ohtani’s struggles, and second is the injury to Mike Trout.
The third and most direct reason to avoid the Angels on the MLB spread in this game is L.A. has an abysmal 1-9-0 record against the spread (ATS) in their previous 10 games. At home, the Halos are 2-7 ATS in their last nine.
The Angels are also just 2-4 ATS in their last six games against the Astros in 2023.
Los Angeles with Ohtani on the mound is always dangerous, but without Trout, the Angels are losing momentum and are not covering games at an acceptable rate.
With betting odds of +135 on the moneyline to win outright, our best bet for Friday’s series opener is on the Astros.
Angels vs. Astros Same-Game Parlay
This type of wager allows you to combine two or more bets from the same event into a single play. The advantage is that the odds for the combined wager are higher than betting all plays separately.
For more information, check out our same-game parlay overview.
Here’s the trio of MLB prop bets we have chosen for the Astros vs. Angels:
- Jose Abreu Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+130)
- Alex Bregman Over 0.5 RBIs (+205)
- Shohei Ohtani Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
After combining these three bets into a same-game parlay, the odds jump to +1303. That would be good for a $1,303 profit on a $100 winning bet.
This same game parlay has some of the longest odds of any we’ve pitched, but that makes the risk all the more worth it.
First is a bet on Jose Abreu to go over 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs against Ohtani and the Angels. We like this bet because Abreu is hitting .276 in his previous 130 at-bats with six home runs and eight doubles.
The slugger also has great numbers against Ohtani with a .400 average, with two walks and four hits in 10 at-bats.
Alex Bregman gets the nod with our second leg for the same reason as Abreu. The third-baseman has the most at-bats against Ohtani on the Astros at 27, hitting .370 with two doubles and three RBIs.
Bregman leads the Astros and ranks 18th in the MLB with 45 RBIs.
While Ohtani is our pick for the final leg of our SGP, we are betting against him recording over 6.5 strikeouts. Ohtani is a Cy Young-caliber pitcher, but his recent struggles have the Angels searching for a way to manage his workload.
A couple of extra days off might help, but it could also mess with his rhythm. Considering Houston is the 4th hardest team to strike out, we’re betting Ohtani brings baggage with him following a short vacation from the mound.
