Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres
- When: Tuesday, July 4
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET / 3:40 p.m. PT
- Where: Petco Park (San Diego, California)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Angels +115, Padres -135
- Runline: Angels +1.5 (-195), Padres -1.5 (+165)
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 Runs (-105/-115)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Angels on Independence Day in what has become an interleague regional rivalry in recent years. MLB betting fans have more than just the 4th of July to celebrate on Tuesday, thanks to a phenomenal pitching duel between Shohei Ohtani and Joe Musgrove.
Ohtani is having the kind of season that could go down as the best in the history of baseball, with top-tier numbers on the mound and at the plate. The phenom leads the MLB with 31 home runs while ranking third in strikeouts (127) as a pitcher.
While Shotime is having a great season on the bump, his recent production at the plate is awe-inspiring. Ohtani hit a staggering .394 in June with 15 home runs, 29 RBIs and an OPS of 1.444—all league bests.
To put those numbers into perspective: Ohtani hit a home run in 14.4% of his previous 112 at-bats, all while hitting almost .400 over a sustained period. As a result, Ohtani became the first Japanese-born player to win AP Player of the Month three times.
The 2021 AL MVP also started five games last month, notching a 2-2 record with a 3.26 ERA. While Ohtani’s pitching stats in June weren’t the best, they were weighed down by two poor starts to begin the month. Ohtani finished June strong with back-to-back one-run starts while totaling 22 strikeouts and four walks over 13 1⁄3 innings.
Ohtani lowered his ERA in his last four games in a row and is poised to make a run at the AL MVP and contend for the AL Cy Young.
As for the Angels as a team, they are in the mix for the AL West title and trail the Texas Rangers by 5.5 games. While they have a losing record against the spread (ATS) overall, on the road, LA is 24-19 ATS with a return on investment of +0.33%. The Angels’ ROI in their previous 10 road games was an attractive +13.44%.
While the biggest story in MLB is Ohtani, we can’t ignore the skill the Padres bring.
Musgrove may not contribute anything at the plate, but with a 6-2 record, he’s doing his part on the mound. Musgrove hasn’t lost a decision in over a month, with a 5-0 record in his previous seven starts. The Padres are 5-2 in those games.
The San Diego native may also have the upper hand in this matchup, with positive numbers against the Angels’ biggest bats. Ohtani has never gotten a hit off Musgrove, while Trout is 1-for-7 with three strikeouts.
The righty may not have the best season numbers, but he has lowered his ERA consistently following a poor start to the year. Musgrove was 4-0 in June with a 2.25 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 36 innings.
Musgrove gives the Padres a great chance to win, but we must consider the Friar’s recent slump and poor ATS record. San Diego is 3-7 in their previous 10 games and has a poor ATS record of 39-45. At home, the Padres’ betting record is even worse, with an ROI of -12.18% when they play at Petco Park.
Best Bet: Angels vs. Padres
These two teams match up well on paper, but the Padres are dealing with a slump that makes them tough to trust with our MLB picks on Independence Day. Their high-powered offense has been neutralized due to leaving 3.64 runners in scoring position each game.
Despite winning the series opener 10-3 on Monday night, the Padres offense will likely sputter against a dominant Ohtani.
With betting odds of -195 to cover on the runline, the Angels are a playable wager. Ohtani is dealing on the mound and swatting home runs left and right at the plate.
Same-Game Parlay
This type of wager allows you to combine two or more bets from the same event into a single play. The advantage is that the odds for the combined wager are higher than betting all plays separately.
For more information, check out our same-game parlay overview.
Here’s the trio of MLB prop bets we have chosen for the Angels versus Padres:
- Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
- Shohei Ohtani Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-110)
- Shohei Ohtani to Record a Win (+165)
After combining these three bets into a same-game parlay, the odds jump to +1064. That would be good for a $1,063 profit on a $100 winning bet.
It’s a long-shot bet, but it’s playable.
The first leg of our same game parlay is for Ohtani to go over 1.5 total bases against Musgrove and the Padres pitching staff.
With 16 home runs in his last 29 games and 15 additional extra-base hits, Ohtani is covering this prop with one swing of the bat on most nights. To be specific, Ohtani eclipsed 1.5 total bases with a single at-bat 25% of the time in his previous 29 games. That doesn’t include games where it took more than one trip to the plate to cash this prop.
The second leg of Tuesday’s parlay is for Ohtani to go over his 7.5 strikeout total for game two of this series. Shotime had double-digit strikeouts in back-to-back games, and it is generally unwise to bet against momentum. Meanwhile, the Padres rank in the league’s bottom half in strikeouts per game at 8.63.
We are tripling down on the unicorn this 4th of July, with the third leg of our SGP betting on Ohtani to notch his third win in his previous four games. After a mini-slump stole some of his confidence on the mound, Ohtani is back on track with three quality starts in a row.
