Every team is undefeated on Opening Day in Major League Baseball.
No matter how poor a team is on paper, every franchise has a chance on day one of the season. Opening Day is about new beginnings, but most over-performing teams soon return to reality. However, some keep winning and put together incredible seasons.
At least one major online sportsbook offered odds on the number of wins by any team by the end of the month of April. DraftKings Sportsbook had a market on whether a team would start super hot and win 21 or more games during time period.
“Yes” had -135 betting odds, while “No” was +110. It’s worth noting that the odds are subject to change, and the market itself may become temporarily unavailable as games are played.
Let’s look at some of the best starts in MLB history through 25 games (roughly the first month of the season) to gauge whether this bet is worth consideration.
22-3: 1907 Giants & 1955 Dodgers
Most teams are scheduled for 28 or 29 games in April, so 25 is a reasonable benchmark. Only two teams in MLB history have won 22 games of their first 25 of the season.
The 1907 New York Giants set the record by going 22-3 in their first 25 games. However, they dropped the ball immediately after the first month and cooled off faster than they heated up in April. They lost 11 of 15 shortly thereafter and fell out of first place for good, ultimately finishing fourth in the National League at 82-71. New York played sub-.500 ball after its hot start, proving that winning the pennant during the season’s first month is impossible.
Nearly 50 years later, however, the Brooklyn Dodgers sprinted from the gates and went on to finish the job. They matched the Giants’ pace by going 22-3 to start the season and never let up, cruising to the NL pennant with a 98-55-1 record. They finally vanquished the New York Yankees in the Fall Classic, winning their first and only championship in Brooklyn before relocating to Los Angeles a few years later.
21-4: 1902 Pirates, 1907 Cubs, 1911 Tigers, 1946 Red Sox, 1977 Dodgers, 1984 Tigers
The difference between 22 wins versus 21 in the first 25 games is significant. Only two teams have hit 22 victories during that span, but six have won exactly 21.
The 1902 Pittsburgh Pirates were the most dominant team in this group, finishing with a 103-36 record. Unfortunately, that was one year before the first World Series was played.
The 1907 Chicago Cubs were also fantastic, going 107-45 before sweeping Ty Cobb’s Detroit Tigers in the World Series. Cobb led the Tigers to a 21-4 start of their own four years later, but they couldn’t maintain it and finished second in the American League.
Detroit would repeat the feat in 1984, winning the World Series in five games over the San Diego Padres. The 1946 Boston Red Sox and 1977 Los Angeles Dodgers also started 21-4 and made it to the championship, but they lost to the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Yankees, respectively.
20-5: 1905 Giants, 1912 Reds, 1925 Athletics, 1928 Yankees, 1939 Yankees, 1958 Yankees, 1981 A’s, 1986 Mets, 1987 Brewers, 2001 Mariners, 2003 Yankees
Eleven teams won 20 of their first 25 games, a spike from six teams with 21 wins. So, only 19 teams in MLB history have won at least 20 of their first 25 games, including none since 2003.
That shows how hard it is to surpass 21 wins by the end of April.
Five of the 11 teams in the 20-win club went on to win the World Series. The 1905 Giants, 1928 Yankees, 1939 Yankees, 1958 Yankees and 1986 Mets all won the championship. The 2003 Yankees made it to the World Series but lost in six games to the Florida Marlins, while the 2001 Seattle Mariners tied the MLB record for most regular-season wins with 116.
So if a team wins at least 80% of its first 25 games, it’s likely the start of a good season.
Should You Bet The April MLB Prop?
It’s hard to start fast in MLB, and history shows it. However, regarding this prop bet, we believe “Yes” at -135 is the more viable bet. At -135 odds, a $135 wager would return $100 in profit.
In today’s game, small-market teams move to the wayside to the powerhouse clubs like the Yankees, Dodgers and Astros. There is a direct correlation between payroll and regular-season success, so teams that spend more typically win more.
That was true in 2022 when four teams cleared 100 wins and another five topped 90. With those clubs poised for additional success in 2023, we could see at least one of them come out firing and win 21+ games in April, especially if they can take advantage of MLB’s new schedule.
Impact of MLB Schedule Change
In past seasons, teams would play 19 games within their division. The format changed for 2023, with teams playing just 13 games against each of their divisional rivals.
The new format gives teams fewer divisional games in the season’s first month. Divisions aren’t equal, so fewer games against divisional opponents is beneficial for strong franchises in quality divisions.
The AL East is loaded with talent, unlike divisions such as the AL Central. AL East teams benefit from the shift away from 19 divisional games because they play weaker teams throughout the year. Some of these contests end up on a team’s schedule in April. The benefit is clear for a team like the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Rays won their first five games of the 2023 season.
The Rays started the season with the Tigers before matchups against the Washington Nationals and Oakland Athletics. Washington and Oakland are expected to compete for the worst record in 2023. The Rays probably wouldn’t have played these clubs in April without the schedule change.
In past seasons, the Rays more often played AL East teams, lowering their chance of reaching the April 21-win threshold. This season, they have a better chance because of their easier April schedule.
Good teams in weak divisions don’t necessarily benefit from the MLB schedule change because they’re losing six games against more beatable clubs. However, the DraftKings market only requires one team to reach 21 wins before the end of the month.
Other teams have an easier April schedule, so it makes sense to take “yes” if you’re interested in this market. The same couldn’t be said in past seasons when teams would be loaded with games against a challenging division right from Opening Day. The new rules make it more manageable for teams to win 21 contests, making the “yes” side of the wager the more playable option.
