How To Bet MLB First-Inning Props

The most common type of first-inning bet is whether a run will be scored in the opening frame. Sportsbooks like DraftKings frequently offer promotional odds boosts for this type of market.

A wager on at least one run being scored in the first inning (Over 0.5 runs) is called a YRFI bet (Yes Run First Inning), while a wager on no runs being scored by either team (Under 0.5 runs) is called a NRFI bet (No Run First Inning).

With a YRFI bet, at least one team must score in the first inning for the bet to cash. This can be a good bet to target if one or both starting pitchers have high ERAs or if either lineup has a strong top of the batting order and has had success against the opposing pitcher.

Conversely, NRFIs require both teams to get through the first inning unscathed. It only takes one run to ruin a NRFI bet, which can happen on one swing if a pitcher makes a mistake.

Furthermore, teams usually stack their best hitters at the top of the lineup. The first three batters are guaranteed to bat for both teams in the first inning, making the pitcher’s job more difficult.

For NRFI bets, you’ll want to target matchups between two talented starting pitchers or games with two subpar offenses.

While looking at a pitcher’s overall stats is helpful, also make sure to review their first-inning stats like ERA, FIP and WHIP before placing a NRFI or YRFI wager. Some pitchers struggle in the first inning against more formidable hitters, but others pitch better at the start of the game when their arms are fresh.

Bottom line: Keep in mind that NRFIs and YRFIs are essentially coin flips. Through July 4, 2024, MLB games that season had an average of 0.48 runs in the first inning, indicating a slight lean toward NRFIs.

A run line is baseball’s version of a spread in that it’s a wager on the margin of victory. If the New York Yankees are listed as -1.5 on the run line against the Houston Astros, they must win by at least two runs to cover. If the Astros win the game or only lose by one run, they cover as a +1.5 underdog.

Betting sites offer run lines for each individual inning, including the first inning. The same rules apply as a full-game run line, albeit with one difference. Unlike full games, innings can end in a tie if both teams score the same amount of runs.

This makes betting favorites a bit riskier, as they must outscore their opponent to cash the bet. Underdogs have more protection, as they still cover if the inning ends in a tie, so their odds typically have more juice compared to a full-game run line.

For example, if the Boston Red Sox are -0.5 run line favorites for the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies, they must score at least one run more than the Phillies that inning to cover. If Philadelphia scores more runs or if both teams score the same number of runs (which can be zero), the Phillies will cover as +0.5 underdogs.

Accordingly, betting on the underdog is often best, as you’ll still win your bet even if both teams tie the first inning. Betting on the favorite is riskier but usually comes with plus odds and higher payouts, so it can be a viable wager if you back a team with a better starting pitcher or a stronger offense.

The inning equivalent of a moneyline bet, this wager allows you to bet on which team will win the first inning. This wager is a three-way moneyline bet, so you can bet on the away team winning, the home team winning, or a tie.

In most cases, either team winning will be available at plus odds, while a tie will be favored with minus odds. Most of the time, the team that’s favored to win the game will have shorter odds, especially if it has a better starting pitcher on the mound.

The starting pitching matchup is an important factor to consider when making these bets. An ace gives his team a better chance at winning the first inning if he can shut down the opposing lineup, especially if he’s lined up against a No. 4 or 5 starter.

Similar to a NRFI or YRFI bet, you’ll want to look at a starting pitcher’s first-inning splits to help predict how he’s going to fare and whether his team is worth fading.

It’s also important to look at the top of the lineups for both teams. Teams with more power or better on-base guys at the top of their batting order are more likely to score runs and grab an early lead.

You can also wager on various statistical categories in the first inning. The most popular ones tend to be runs, hits and strikeouts, although some sportsbooks offer other categories like batters faced and pitches thrown.

In these cases, you can bet on the Over/Under for each team or the Over/Under for both teams combined.

For example, you can wager on whether the Chicago Cubs will score a run in the first inning or if there will be Under 1.5 total runs scored in the first inning.

Again, you’ll want to base your wagers on the starting pitching matchup and who’s batting at the top of each lineup. It’s also important to consider other factors like ballpark dimensions, the home plate umpire, temperature, wind direction and humidity, all of which can impact offense.

While some of these bets have Over/Under formats, it’s also possible to bet on the exact number or ranges. For example, you can bet on the Los Angeles Dodgers to record exactly two hits in the first inning or the St. Louis Cardinals to register 1-2 strikeouts.

Exact bets are riskier and harder to hit, so they usually come with plus odds. Ranges are more likely to hit as they account for more outcomes, but they have worse odds as a result.

Some online sportsbooks offer specialty betting markets for the first inning. While these markets may also be available for other innings, the first inning is different because you know ahead of time what the hitter/pitcher matchups will be.

Some specials are broken out by team, while others are for the whole first inning. Here are some examples:

• 1+ home run
• 1+ stolen base
• 1+ extra-base hit (double/triple/home run)
• 3 up 3 down (when all three batters are retired without reaching base)
• 1+ grand slam
• Total runs: odd/even

These wagers usually come with plus odds, as they are relatively rare. You should only make these bets if you think you’ve found some kind of trend or advantage.

For example, you could bet on a homer-prone pitcher surrendering a long ball in the first inning if you know he’s going to face Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani. If a team runs a lot and is facing a pitcher with a bad pickoff move, you could bet on them to steal a base.

These can be fun bets to sprinkle some money on or add to a parlay, but they’re basically random and aren’t worth betting consistently.

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