There aren’t many situations as exciting in baseball as a no-hitter. Even a close call can be exhilarating. Fans dream of being in an MLB ballpark when their team’s pitcher goes nine innings without allowing a hit.
The feat is rare, but some sportsbooks, including DraftKings, allow baseball bettors to drop a few bucks each day on whether the day’s schedule will include a no-no.
Is it worth betting this prop wager? Let’s briefly examine the history of the no-hitter and some information on these types of bets for fans hoping to cash in.
No-Hitter Betting Odds
Those looking for a sweat may want to check out this interesting wager. The bet is offered almost daily, so a fan simply has to bet whether a no-hitter will occur on the selected day.
DraftKings typically offers the following odds on the bet:
- Yes: +2500
- No: -20000 (sometimes shortens to -10000)
These plus-minus odds tell you how much you would win on a $100 bet (plus odds) and how much you’d have to bet to profit $100 (minus odds).
Someone wanting to test the waters on this wager would score $2,500 on a $100 wager. On the other end, a bettor would have to risk $20,000 to profit just $100.
You can wager any amount, even less than $1. The negative side (not seeing a no-hitter on a given day) doesn’t offer much upside, but it’s obviously the safer bet.
What is a No-Hitter in Baseball?
A no-hitter occurs when a pitcher or a combination of pitchers doesn’t allow a hit over an entire game. That means at least 27 outs without a hit.
It doesn’t mean a run can’t be scored. It’s also important to note that a no-hitter doesn’t necessarily mean the pitcher or team earns a win. Walks, errors and hit-by-pitch scenarios could mean a pitcher or team ends up with a loss despite not officially giving up a hit.
That seems unlikely, but it has happened a handful of times in MLB history. Obviously these are low-scoring affairs, usually with the hitless yet winning team scoring just a few runs.
Since 1991, MLB has defined a no-hitter as “a game in which a pitcher, or pitchers, gives up no hits while pitching at least nine innings. A pitcher may give up a run or runs so long as he pitches nine innings or more and does not give up a hit.” Prior to that, a no-hitter was defined as “an official game in which a pitcher, or pitchers, gives up no hits.”
The key phrase was “official game.” A game may fall short of nine innings due to unforeseen circumstances (such as weather) but has still been played long enough to count in the standings. MLB notes that “A game is considered a regulation game—also known as an ‘official game’—once the visiting team has made 15 outs (five innings) and the home team is leading, or once the home team has made 15 outs regardless of score.”
The new rule made it so a shortened-game no-hitter didn’t count, as pitchers had to go at least nine innings. Because of the change, 31 “no-hitters” were taken off the books.
What’s the Difference Between a No-hitter and a Perfect Game?
The difference between a no-hitter and a perfect game is as follows:
- No-hitter: A pitcher or pitchers don’t allow any hits through the completion of nine innings and a complete game, although players may still reach base by other means (walks, errors, hit batters, etc.).
- Perfect game: A pitcher retires every batter in a game without any of them reaching base at all. This is one of the rarest feats in baseball.
On the perfect game side, there have been 24 perfect games in MLB history — all by different pitchers. The first came in 1880 from Lee Richmond of the Worcester Ruby Legs. The second came only five days after the first, this time from John Montgomery Ward for the Providence Grays. Cy Young added his name to the list in 1904.
Some familiar names in the perfect game club include Jim Bunning, Sandy Koufax, Catfish Hunter, Dennis Martinez, Kenny Rogers, David Wells, David Cone, Randy Johnson and Roy Halladay.
Don Larsen even saw perfection in the World Series in a 2-0 win over the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1956 — the only perfect game in postseason history.
On June 28, 2023, Yankees pitcher Domingo German threw one against the hapless Oakland Athletics.
Retired 27 in a row. Masterful.
Presented by @Delta pic.twitter.com/VeGDgfgM5c
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) June 29, 2023
When wagering on unlikely pitching feats, bettors will have to stick to no-hitter prop bets. No perfect game prop bets are available at regulated sportsbooks.
Who Has the Most No-Hitters in MLB History?
Regarding no-hitters, flamethrower and Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan leads the pack with seven. That included four with the California Angels from 1973-75, one with the Houston Astros in 1981 and two with the Texas Rangers from 1990-91.
The last came when the “Ryan Express” had reached age 44—an impressive record. His total collection of no-hitters seems unlikely to be beaten. Amazingly, Ryan also pitched 26 one-hitters that were broken up in the seventh inning or later.
Beyond Ryan, 35 pitchers have thrown multiple no-hitters. Sandy Koufax checks in second with four from 1962-65. Four more players have thrown three no-hitters in their careers: Justin Verlander, Bob Feller, Cy Young and Larry Corcoran.
Johnny Vander Meer adds an impressive record to the no-hitter club. The left-hander is the only pitcher to throw back-to-back no-hitters. He did so in 1938 for the Cincinnati Reds. The first came against the Boston Bees. Four days later, Vander Meer repeated the feat against the Brooklyn Dodgers.
In total, there have been 325 no-hitters recognized by MLB. The first came on July 15, 1876, from George Bradley in the National League’s first season. The most recent was on Aug. 2, 2024, from Blake Snell of the San Francisco Giants.
How Often Does a No-Hitter Happen?
For those considering the no-hitter wager, what is the average number of no-hitters pitched per season? Baseball-Reference.com notes: “No-hitters occur at a rate of about three per season over the course of MLB history. The most no-hitters in a single season was 1884 in which 12 were thrown, followed by 1990 with nine and 1991 with eight.”
In more recent times, there have been 77 no-hitters since 2000. During that time, there were roughly 58,000 games played. That equates to 0.0013% of games featuring a no-hitter—much longer odds than one would find in the DraftKings bet.
Using these numbers, a baseball fan will see a no-hitter once out of about every 758 games. Theoretically, that should be a much higher payout than DraftKings’ 25-to-1 wager.
- Number of no-hitters from 2000-24 – 76
- Games played from 2000-24 – roughly 58,000
- Odds to throw no-hitter – 0.0013% or 1 in 758
Should You Bet on a No-Hitter?
Baseball fans looking for a sweat have better options when it comes to MLB wagering than dropping money on a no-hitter. A moneyline bet gives you a better shake. One thing that works in a bettor’s favor is that a combined no-hitter counts toward a winning bet.
That’s a small consolation and won’t make the wager much better, but a combined no-no is more likely than it would have been just a couple of decades ago. The days of pitchers like Ryan hurling for nine innings (and sometimes more) don’t happen much anymore.
When making the DraftKings no-hitter bet, the wager will lose quickly more often than not. It’s a bet that only occasionally provides some late-inning excitement on an extremely lucky day.
However, if you’ve got some primo seats to watch the ace on your favorite team, dropping a few bucks on a no-hitter could be a fun sweat. Imagine everyone cheering on your possible, yet unlikely, winning no-hitter wager. It could be worth the entertainment value.
An elite pitcher on the mound might make that bet a bit better. Simply betting $10—about the cost of a beer in some stadiums—would yield a return of $250.
That said, you aren’t going to build a sports betting bankroll on the no-hitter prop.
Based on the statistics above, these wagers are like buying a lottery ticket. Betting the “no” side is also a long-term bad bet. You’re chasing a miniscule return. If you lose the bet just once, you’d have to win the bet 200 more times to win back enough to cover that one loss.
