Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 12
- Time: 4:35 p.m. EST
- Where: Truist Park (Atlanta, Georgia)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Phillies +120, Braves -142
- Runline: Phillies +1.5 (-184), Braves -1.5 (+152)
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 Runs (-104/-118)
Note: Odds and lines are current from FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of writing and are subject to change.
The Philadelphia Phillies remained red-hot on the road and took Game 1 of the NLDS from the Atlanta Braves, 7-6. The Phillies got off to a quick start and sent starter Max Fried to the showers after just 3 ⅓ innings. The Braves mounted a late comeback with a three-run ninth inning but ultimately fell short.
The win was the fourth game in a row where Philadelphia covered as a runline underdog. Heading into Wednesday’s Game 2, the Phillies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. That’s quite a feat for a team that finished the season with a sub-.500 record (40-41) on the road, but can they keep it going on Wednesday?
With Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA) on the mound, Philadelphia has a real shot to go home up 2-0 on the reigning World Series champions. Wheeler was lights-out in his postseason debut with a 6 ⅓ shutout innings against the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Wild Card Round. Wheeler now has an immaculate 0.42 ERA since the start of September.
Wheeler is slightly inconsistent on the road with a 3.84 ERA compared to a 1.85 figure at home during the 2022 regular season. But in 202 career at-bats against him, this current Braves lineup is hitting just .233 with more than eight times as many strikeouts (65) as walks (8).
On Atlanta’s side, Kyle Wright (21-5, 3.19 ERA) gets the call with his team up against a wall after Tuesday’s loss. If the Braves lose again today, they’ll be just one loss away from elimination.
The good news is that Atlanta was 24-6 in Wright’s 30 starts this year, including 16-1 over his previous 17 appearances. Wright led MLB in wins during the regular season and allowed two earned runs or less in 21 of his 30 starts. On top of that, the Phillies have a spotty .159 batting average against him in 69 career at-bats.
Despite a disappointing series opener, the Braves are baseball betting favorites of -142 on the moneyline for Game 2 at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Over/Under is 7.5 (-104/-118)
Our Best Bet Today
Our opinion on Atlanta remains the same despite its Game 1 failures. The Braves are the better team and are incredibly tough to beat at home. While Wheeler may outduel Wright, we are more interested in what happens after that.
The Phillies almost blew a 7-1 lead because of a shaky bullpen, and they will be back in the spotlight in Game 2. Philadelphia had the eighth-worst bullpen ERA in the regular season at 4.27, which showed last night. With Phillies closer David Robertson out after hurting himself celebrating during the Wild Card round, the relief corps is even worse off than usual.
We will lay the price and take Atlanta straight up in Game 2 to even this series. With -142 odds on the moneyline at FanDuel, a $100 winning wager on the Braves would pay $70.42 in profits plus your initial stake back.
Our Same-Game Parlay
Same-game parlays are a way to increase the odds and potential payout as opposed to making bets separately. For more information, check out our guide on how to bet on a same-game parlay.
Here are the three prop bets we’ve selected for Wednesday’s NLDS same-game parlay:
- Travis d’Arnaud to Record a Hit (-195)
- Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+104)
- Bryce Harper to Record 2+ Total Bases (+115)
Travis d’Arnaud to record a single hit is the lead leg of our same-game parlay. We like this bet for two reasons. The first is that d’Arnaud has four hits in his last two games and finished the year with a .296 batting average over his final 27 regular-season games. The second is his impressive .467 average in 15 lifetime at-bats versus Wheeler.
Speaking of Wheeler, he is the second leg of our Game 2 parlay. Wheeler is not known as a big strikeout pitcher, but that changes when he faces the Braves. He tallied 25 punchouts in his three starts against them this year, which isn’t too surprising given that Atlanta had the third-highest whiff rate (24.6%) in MLB this season.
Bryce Harper notching multiple total bases is the anchor of our same-game parlay on Wednesday. Harper has five hits in his last two games, including a double and a home run. The reigning NL MVP also has a robust .333 lifetime average against Wright, with a double and a homer in nine at-bats,
Combining this trio of wagers into a same-game parlay raises the odds to +589 at FanDuel. At those odds, a hit on a $100 bet is good for a $589 profit plus your original $100 wager back.
