Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
- When: Tuesday, Sept. 20
- Time: 7:20 p.m. EDT
- Where: Truist Park (Atlanta, GA)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Nationals +280, Braves -350
- Runline: Nationals +1.5 (+136), Braves -1.5 (-164)
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 Runs (-110/-110)
Note: Odds and lines are current at the time of writing and subject to change.
The Braves are looking every bit the part of defiant defending world champions. “Take the crown from us,” the Braves seem to be saying as they have a 12-4 record in September. Only one game separates the Mets and Braves in the National League East, and the rivals are tied in the loss column. Later this month, Atlanta will host the Mets for a crucial three-game series.
The Nationals have lost nine of 12, which is part of the reason the fine folks at FanDuel have the odds heavily stacked in favor of a Braves win on Tuesday. Since August 23, in 11 of the Nats’ 13 losses, the margin has been at least two runs. The Nationals are not just losing; they’re losing handily.
Starting Pitchers
Patrick Corbin (6-18, 6.11 ERA, 124 Ks) vs. Charlie Morton (8-6, 4.17 ERA, 187 Ks)
Where would the Braves be if Charlie Morton was the player we knew and expected in 2022? The answer: first place. The rail-thin righty has been frustrating for manager Brian Snitker this season.
In 28 starts, the veteran has only eight quality outings. That makes you wonder if Snitker will relegate Morton to the bullpen in the postseason. That seems likely if Atlanta ends up playing in the three-game first round of the playoffs.
In each of his last two starts, Morton has allowed four earned runs. He’s allowed 49 baserunners and nine homers in his last 41 innings. Ouch.
Corbin deserves better than to be a 20-game loser, but you also can’t ignore his 6+ ERA, and this is not a new trend. From 2020 to 2022, the southpaw has a 5.73 ERA in 71 starts and nearly 400 innings. Small sample size this is not.
According to Baseball Savant from MLB.com, Corbin’s hard-hit percentage is the fifth-highest in the National League, and since 2021, it has ranked third in MLB. Something seems to have happened since Corbin turned 30. Where has that guy who finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting in 2018 gone?
Neither of these pitchers can be trusted in the strikeout markets, and we’d be surprised if either man was still on the bump in the sixth inning. The Braves pen is set up pretty nicely, but Washington has tired and ineffective arms coming out of its relief corps.
Hot Hitters
It’s time to take a look at Alex Call, who is already in his third MLB organization and hasn’t had a full big league season. But the Nationals outfielder has a .970 OPS since September 1, and there are four homers on his ledger in just 65 ABs in 2022.
Might he become a patchwork replacement for the departed Juan Soto? Well, he won’t be anywhere near as great as the former Nats star, but Call is putting together a nice September.
Matt Olson is slumping, and Dansby Swanson’s bat has all but disappeared in September. But thankfully, Travis d’Arnaud and Rookie of the Year candidate Michael Harris III are red hot this month.
Harris is batting .339 with five homers and 14 RBI since September 1, and the veteran d’Arnaud must have consumed a youth potion because he’s hitting .342 this month with a 1.050 OPS. He had two hits on Monday.
Our Best Bet Today
- Atlanta Braves Race to 7 Runs (+194 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
As we stated, the Washington Nationals are losing by big margins in the latter stages of an unnerving run for a team that won the World Series just three seasons ago. Rivalry schmivalry; we see this one as a lopsided affair with the Braves getting to the Nats bullpen after knocking out starting pitcher Corbin.
If Atlanta scores seven runs, a $50 bet gets you nearly $100, or a $100 wager nets you $194. The Braves have 220 home runs, which is 18 more than any other National League club. A few big swings are all it takes to get the crooked numbers on the board on the way to 7+ runs in Atlanta at cozy Truist Park.
Our Same-Game Parlay
Our daily Braves same-game parlay from FanDuel Sportsbook gives us odds of +364, meaning we can get a $464 payout, including the return of our original stake.
To make your own parlay, choose “Same Game Parlay Builder” under Nationals-Braves game. Choose from dozens of player and game props to construct a wager that is best for you, and see the odds get bigger and bigger, which could mean a larger payoff.
- Matt Olson To Hit a Home Run (+340)
- Braves To Win (-350)
What happened to Olson? He has had one home run since August 24. His demise seems to mirror the rise of Freddie Freeman, whom he replaced so well for the first four-plus months of the season. We’ll take a chance on Olson, who has three jacks against the Nationals in only 13 games. Washington starter Patrick Corbin has allowed 27 homers. Only three NL pitchers have coughed up more.
