Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
- When: Wednesday, Sept. 28
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where: Nationals Park (Washington, District of Columbia)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Braves -215, Nationals +180
- Runline: Braves -1.5 (-130), Nationals +1.5 (+108)
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 Runs (-108/-112)
Note: Odds and lines are current from FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of writing and subject to change.
The Atlanta Braves (97-58) need a strong finish to their series against the Washington Nationals (53-101) on Wednesday as they are tied with the New York Mets for the top spot in the NL East. The Mets and Braves kick off a crucial matchup on Friday, but don’t worry about the Braves succumbing to a “look ahead” loss. They know every game is a must-win and won’t take their foot off the gas.
With the division crown coming down to the wire, the Braves couldn’t have picked a worse time for Jake Odorizzi (5-6, 4.61) to make his next scheduled start. He started the season with terrible results, and things have only worsened. In three September starts, the righty has a hideous 9.49 ERA in 12 ½ innings with a K/BB ratio of 7/14.
The Braves have a much better team on paper, but Odorizzi is a huge liability and hasn’t notched a win in over a month. It doesn’t help that the Nationals’ offense has been surprisingly productive in September. However, their bats have gone silent this series, with just two runs in two games against Atlanta.
Despite Odorizzi’s terrible season, we have to say that the Braves have the edge tonight with Josiah Gray (7-10, 5.17) starting for Washington. If there was an award for the worst pitcher in each league, Gray would be the NL’s frontrunner. His ERA in September is 8.38 in three starts, and Gray hasn’t won a game since early July.
Gray enters play on Wednesday with a four-game streak of allowing four or more earned runs to score. His K/BB rate in his last five games is laughable at 15/16, with four multi-home run games in eight starts. He did hold the Braves scoreless in five innings earlier in the year. But, we aren’t expecting lightning to strike twice.
Despite Atlanta’s lack of quality pitching, the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook list the Braves as heavy baseball betting favorites of -215 on the moneyline with a total of 8.5 runs.
Our Best Bet Today
The Braves may seem like the clever play here with Gray on the mound, but we feel the value is on this showdown to go over the total. The Braves scored exactly eight runs in three straight games, and the Nats’ offense isn’t as bad as you may assume.
Odorizzi is almost as bad as Gray, which means anything can happen in this game. The most likely outcome is at least one of these powder kegs ignites and sends the total soaring over 8.5 runs.
With -108 betting odds on the Over 8.5 runs at FanDuel, a $100 wager would pay $92.59 in profits plus your initial stake back.
Our Same-Game Parlay
Same-game parlays are a way to increase the odds and potential payout as opposed to making bets separately. For more information, check out our same-game parlay guide.
Here are the three prop bets we’ve selected for Wednesday’s same-game parlay:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. to Record a Run (-175)
- 1st Inning Over 0.5 Runs (-106)
- Marcell Ozuna to Record 2+ Total Bases (+140)
These bets combine for odds of +548. A $100 wager would pay out $548.21 plus your original bet.
The lead leg of our same-game parlay for Wednesday is for Acuna to score a run. Acuna has been heating up at the plate over the last week with two multi-hit games and four runs scored in his previous four games. We expect a lot of scoring today and betting on Acuna to get in on the fun.
The second leg is a simple fade of these two pitchers in the hopes one gives up an early run. Gray, in particular, is susceptible to early runs. He’s allowed two first-innings runs in his previous three starts, and Washington allows first-inning runs in 34.42% of games.
The final leg of our same-game parlay is for Marcell Ozuna to record at least two total bases. Ozuna may not be one of the marquee hitters on this team with a .222 batting average. But, he is raking .310 in September and has two multi-hit games in his previous five starts. Against Gray, we’re happy to grab Ozuna at these odds to stay hot.
