Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
- When: Tuesday, Oct. 11
- Time: 1:07 p.m. EST
- Where: Truist Park (Atlanta, Georgia)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Phillies +168, Braves -200
- Runline: Phillies +1.5 (-128), Braves -1.5 (+106)
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 Runs (+102/-124)
Note: Odds and lines are current from FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of writing and are subject to change.
On the heels of a shocking win over the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Wild Card Series, the Philadelphia Phillies head to Georgia to face the Atlanta Braves. The Phillies are coming in with plenty of momentum after taking back-to-back games from the Cardinals on the road. Meanwhile, the Braves have been one of the hottest teams in baseball during the second half and are a very tough opponent at home.
These two division rivals have already met 19 times this season, with Atlanta going 11-8 straight up while Philadelphia went 11-8 against the spread. The home team went 11-8 in those contests, whereas the Over was 12-6-1.
The reigning World Series champions have an edge on the mound in this pivotal Game 1. Max Fried (14-7, 2.48 ERA) has been the Braves’ ace this year and is the perfect guy to start this series for them. Fried also has a solid 3.13 ERA in four starts this season against the Phillies while holding them to a .258 wOBA.
If Fried does get into trouble, he has one of the best bullpens in baseball behind him. Atlanta’s relievers led MLB with 55 saves while ranking fourth in ERA (3.03).
As good as their pitching has been, the Braves’ offense has been just as strong. Atlanta ranked third in scoring and second in home runs, so they have plenty of firepower to fight back with if Fried struggles.
The first-round bye really helps Atlanta in the pitching department, as Philadelphia is going with No. 3 starter Ranger Suarez (10-7, 3.65 ERA). The southpaw is a capable pitcher with solid numbers, but there is cause for concern. While Fried was tremendous down the stretch, Suarez stumbled with a 4.55 ERA over his final six outings.
On top of Suarez’s recent issues, the Braves are dangerous against left-handed pitching with a .265 average and a .782 OPS. In five starts this season against Atlanta, Suarez is 1-2 with a 3.21 ERA in 28 innings. Compared to Fried, his numbers don’t add up to a win for the Phillies here.
With home-field advantage and a pitching mismatch, the Braves are baseball betting favorites of -200 on the moneyline for Game 1 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Our Best Bet Today
There are two primary reasons we are siding with Atlanta in Game 1, and Fried is one of them. He finished the season with a 1.95 ERA over his final 10 starts and has pitched well against Philadelphia this year.
The other reason to trust the Braves in Game 1 is that the Phillies are not a great road team. They finished the season with a losing record on the road at 40-41, while Atlanta was an impressive 55-26 at home. At plus odds on the spread, the Braves are the wise choice in Game 1.
With +106 odds on the runline at FanDuel, a $100 wager on Atlanta would pay $106 in profits plus your initial stake back.
Our Same-Game Parlay
Same-game parlays are a way to increase the odds and potential payout as opposed to making bets separately. For more information, check out our guide on how to bet on a same-game parlay.
Here are the three prop bets we’ve selected for Tuesday’s NLDS same-game parlay:
- Bryce Harper to Record a Hit (-180)
- William Contreras to Record a Hit (-185)
- Austin Riley to Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)
Bryce Harper is our first leg for Tuesday after a successful weekend at the plate in St. Louis. Harper finished the season on a three-game hitting streak and added two more hits during the Wild Card Round, including a home run. The reigning NL MVP also has a solid .286 average against Fried with eight hits in 28 at-bats.
William Contreras is another guy we think will nab a hit in Game 1 of this series. His stats skew hard toward left-handed pitching with a .354 average and 1.036 OPS in 116 plate appearances against southpaws this year. Contreras also has a fantastic .429 average in 14 at-bats against Suarez with two home runs and six hits.
Austin Riley rounds out our same-game parlay in an excellent spot to shine against the Phillies. Suarez has decent numbers against most of the Braves, but Riley is not one of them. The righty has a .417 average against Suarez with two extra-base hits in 12 at-bats.
Combining this trio of wagers into a same-game parlay raises the odds to +393 at FanDuel. At those odds, a hit on a $100 bet is good for a $393 profit plus your original $100 wager back.