Table of Contents
Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
- When: Friday, Sept. 16
- Time: 7:20 p.m. EDT
- Where: Truist Park (Atlanta, Georgia)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Phillies +160, Braves -190
- Runline: Phillies -1.5 (+112), Braves +1.5 (-134)
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 Runs (-114/-106)
Note: Odds and lines are current at the time of writing and subject to change.
The Braves and Phillies are on a possible collision course to meet in the first round of the playoffs. If Atlanta stays in the No. 1 wild card spot, the defending World Series champions could face Philadelphia in a grudge match between division rivals.
After scratching their way into first place on September 9, the Braves have lost four of five. They send ace Max Fried to the hill to get back on track and stay within a half-game of the Mets.
The Phillies won five in a row before yesterday’s 5-3 loss to the Marlins. The best fate they can hope for is to move into the No. 2 wild-card spot, which would allow them to host the wild card series. Under new rules for the 2022 postseason, the higher seeds in the opening round host all three games, if necessary.
Starting Pitchers
Ranger Suárez (9-5, 3.62 ERA, 114 Ks) vs. Max Fried (13-6, 2.50 ERA, 155 Ks)
If the Braves win the NL East, it will be thanks to their starting pitchers. Fried and friends have carried the defending champions back into the division race. Fried has a 1.87 ERA in his last four starts with a 22-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 24 innings. With Fried, manager Brian Snitker has a hurler he knows can get him to at least the sixth inning, freeing up the bullpen.
This season, Fried has two no-decisions against the Phillies, with 13 Ks in 12 innings and only two walks without giving up a homer.
When Philadelphia decided to convert Ranger Suárez into a starter in spring training, it was out of necessity. But that decision has turned into delight: the Phillies are 16-9 in starts made by Suárez.
The southpaw has come on strong after the All-Star break, posting a 2.86 ERA in nine starts. Suárez doesn’t make mistakes: he’s allowed just two home runs in 50 ⅓ innings since the break. He rarely touches the mid-90s with his fastball, and the spin rate on his four pitches is fairly low (less than 2,000 for his four-seamer, cut fastball, sinker and changeup).
Suárez keeps the ball low, but opposing batters will make contact. His K rate is only 7.6, but he has only surrendered 25 home runs in more than 300 innings in the major leagues. For that reason, don’t touch the Suárez strikeout market.
Hot Hitters
Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto has a .355 career average with three home runs against Max Fried. Teammate Bryce Harper has hit .348 lifetime off Fried.
Rookie middle infielder Bryson Stott is batting .333 for the Phillies since September 1.
The Braves have a hot-hitting rookie of their own: outfielder Michael Harris has a 391/391/783 slashline in September. FanDuel has Harris at -130 to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award. He would be the first Atlanta player to win the award since Ronald Acuña Jr. in 2018. Harris has five homers this month.
Atlanta’s Eddie Rosario is hitting .350 in eight games in September.
Our Best Bet Today
- Atlanta Braves -1.5 / Under 7.5 (+420 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
We expect Suárez and Fried to keep the bases clear and the baseball in the park. That means a low-scoring game, something like 4-2 or 4-1.
This season, Fried has two no-decisions against the Phillies, with 13 Ks in 12 innings and only two walks without giving up a homer.
Our Same-Game Parlay
A $100 bet on our same-game parlay would pay $1,168, including your original $100 wager.
- Michael Harris II To Record 2+ Hits (+350)
- Max Fried 7+ Strikeouts (+196)
Fried has struck out at least seven batters in seven games in 2022. He’s facing a Phillies lineup that’s fourth in the NL in home runs, and likes to swing freely.
Michael Harris is almost certain to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award, and he still has his foot on the pedal, and the pedal to the floor as his longest professional season winds down to the final regular scheduled games. Harris has seven multi-hit games since September 2. He’s 0-for-4 against Ranger Suárez, but that’s just one game.
