Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 19
- Time: 7:37 p.m. EST
- Where: Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Yankees +158, Astros -188
- Runline: Yankees +1.5 (-137), Astros-1.5 (+114)
- Total: Over/Under 7 Runs (+100/-122)
Note: Odds and lines are current at the time of writing and are subject to change.
It doesn’t matter who you are or how good your team is; no manager wants to face off against Justin Verlander (18-4, 1.75 ERA). The 39-year-old legend is the current favorite to win the American League Cy Young Award after putting together yet another age-defying campaign in which he led the AL in wins and both leagues in ERA and WHIP (0.83).
Verlander struggled in his most recent outing against the Seattle Mariners in the ALDS, but the ace of the Houston Astros should have more success against the New York Yankees. Josh Donaldson is New York’s only regular starter with a batting average over .250 versus Verlander.
The Yankees, meanwhile, will put the ball in Jameson Taillon’s hands for Game 1 of the ALCS. While we don’t expect Taillon (14-5, 3.91 ERA) to go blow for blow with Verlander, the veteran right-hander is no pushover. Like Verlander, he’ll also need to bounce back from a rough appearance in the ALDS.
Taillon will also have to contend with a Houston lineup that’s hit him hard throughout his career, batting .320 with a .959 OPS in 75 at-bats against him.
As a result, New York’s bats may need to step up if Taillon struggles again. The Yankees’ offense was mostly quiet against the Cleveland Guardians in the ALDS, batting just .182/.273/.370 with nearly twice as many strikeouts (53) as hits (28). Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, in particular, need to hit better after going 6-for-36 (.167) with 17 strikeouts versus Cleveland.
Due to the discrepancy in pitching talent, the Astros are baseball-betting favorites of -188 on the moneyline for Game 1 at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Over/Under is 7 runs (+100/-122) for this battle between two of the best offenses in baseball.
Our Best Bet Today
We cannot recommend betting against Houston with Verlander on the mound. Despite his checkered postseason history, Verlander remains one of the best pitchers in baseball and may be the best arm left in the postseason.
Instead, we’ll target the total for this game. Both starters are coming off poor showings in the ALDS and could struggle against two of the sport’s most dangerous lineups. The Yankees ranked second in runs during the regular season, while the Astros ranked eighth.
Because of the hype surrounding this game and the quality bats involved, we recommend the Over. Seven runs is pretty low, especially with all the power hitters on both sides. One of these teams could easily score seven runs on its own.
With +100 odds, the Over is also a value play. A $100 winning wager would return $100 in profits plus your original stake.
Our Same-Game Parlay
Same-game parlays are a way to increase the odds and potential payout as opposed to making bets separately. For more information, check out our guide on how to bet on a same-game parlay.
Here are the three prop bets we’ve selected for Wednesday’s ALCS same-game parlay:
- Jose Altuve To Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)
- Yordan Alvarez To Record an RBI (+150)
- Aaron Judge to hit a Home Run (+285)
The first leg of our same-game parlay for Game 1 features Jose Altuve, who’s still searching for his first hit of the postseason after going 0-for-16 during Game 1. Fortunately, he has a .444 lifetime average against Taillon with four hits (including two extra-base hits) in nine at-bats. After a few days off to reset and work on his swing, Altuve is a good bet to pull out of his tailspin tonight.
Next is slugger Yordan Alvarez, who had a much more productive ALDS than Altuve. Alvarez propelled Houston to a three-game sweep of Seattle with two homers and seven RBIs. He also has the platoon advantage against Taillon, making him the best bet to drive in a run tonight.
Finally, we’ll take Judge to go yard again tonight. As you may have heard, he swatted 62 homers during the regular season and added two more during the ALDS. With two lifetime homers against Verlander as well, this is a risk we are willing to take at +285 odds.
Combining this trio of wagers into a same-game parlay raises the odds to +1973 at FanDuel. At those odds, a hit on a $100 bet is good for a whopping $1,973 profit and your original wager back.
