Heading into the 2023 MLB season, few people who bet on baseball considered the Tampa Bay Rays serious World Series contenders. The Rays, one of six franchises without a World Series title, were close to the middle of the pack in terms of odds to win it all in the fall.
The Rays were coming off an 86-76 campaign where they got swept in the Wild Card Round, followed by a relatively quiet offseason. They entered 2023 with one of the lowest payrolls in the league, making it difficult to envision them stacking up with star-studded teams like the Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, New York Yankees and San Diego Padres.
Two weeks into the regular season, Tampa Bay has so far exceeded even the most optimistic expectations. The Rays haven’t lost yet, opening the season 12-0 (13-0 after Thursday’s game). With one more win, they’ll break the MLB record for most consecutive victories to start a season since 1900.
They seem likely to win at least 21 games by the end of April, which was a baseball prop bet you could have plunked money on before the season started. That market is no longer available.
Tampa Bay was not expected to be historically good this year, so what gives? Are the Rays a legitimately great team that was underrated during preseason projections?
Rays Benefiting From New Schedule
Before this season, baseball observers were curious to see the impact of many rule changes. Would bigger bases lead to more stolen bases? Would banning defensive shifts result in more hits? And most importantly, could players adjust to the new pitch clock?
These questions were debated during the offseason and throughout Spring Training. One overlooked and harder-to-answer question revolved around MLB’s new “balanced” schedule. Whereas the old schedule required teams to play 76 games against division opponents, the new schedule reduced that number to 52.
This change was expected to benefit teams in tougher divisions, such as the AL East, where all five teams (including Tampa Bay) are possible playoff contenders. Rather than playing nearly half of their schedule against formidable division rivals, they would get more opportunities to play weaker teams elsewhere.
The new schedule has been a major reason for the Rays’ success. They’ve had the fortune of opening against the Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals, Oakland A’s and Boston Red Sox, none of whom have a winning record or are expected to make the playoffs this year. Only the Red Sox play in Tampa Bay’s division, and they were pegged to finish fourth or fifth.
If the Rays had a series or two against a tougher opponent like the New York Yankees or Toronto Blue Jays, would they still be undefeated? Probably not.
Market Overreaction to Tampa Bay’s Start
Tampa Bay’s World Series odds have been cut in half since Opening Day, going from +2000 (11th-best) to +1000 (7th-best) at DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s a massive swing, and the Rays have 150 games left.
This seems like an overreaction, but apparently, some bettors have bought in. As mentioned, Tampa Bay has beaten up bad teams. The strength of schedule is making them look better than they actually are.
Outlier performances have also fueled Tampa Bay’s sizzling start. Pretty much the entire lineup is mashing, but they will not all keep hitting over .300. Three of the Rays’ 13 pitchers haven’t allowed a run yet, which is unsustainable. Regression to the mean will happen.
Health has been another factor on Tampa Bay’s side. The Rays began the season at near full strength, but injuries have already started in players like Zach Eflin, Jose Siri and Tyler Glasnow. As the season wears on, injuries will accumulate and force Tampa Bay to lean on its reserves and minor leaguers.
The Rays are good, but they’re not this good. Their winning streak appears extra impressive because it occurred at the beginning of the season. There haven’t been enough games to balance it out. If the streak had happened in July or August instead, it would only represent a fraction of the season and seem more like a blip. Tampa Bay’s World Series odds still would have improved, but not to this degree.
The Rays’ winning streak doesn’t tell us much other than that they can beat bad teams. There’s still a long way to go. It’s too early to predict October glory for a team because they dominated an easier part of their schedule in the season’s first month.
MLB futures bettors shouldn’t rush to bet on Tampa Bay. Much can change between now and the All-Star Break, let alone by the end of the season. Wait until they face some real teams. If they keep playing this well against legitimate contenders, this may be their year.
Other Tampa Bay Rays Futures
There are other ways to bet on the outcome of the Rays’ season other than whether or not they will win the World Series. However, the same logic applies to all Rays markets. You’re buying high off of the historic start, and it’s hard to recommend that as a strategy to build a sports betting bankroll.
If you’re sold on Tampa Bay and we can’t convince you otherwise, we recommend the unit-betting strategy. First, determine an amount for your wagering spend for the entirety of the MLB season. A unit is typically 1% of your bankroll. Any Rays futures bets should not exceed one unit. We recommend a fractional unit for these futures bets.
Below were the other futures odds after the team’s hot start.
Tampa Bay to Make the Playoffs
- Yes -450
- No +360
AL East Odds
- Rays: +150
- Yankees: +170
- Blue Jays: +250
- Orioles: +3500
- Red Sox: +5000
To Win the AL Pennant
- Astros: +380
- Yankees: +400
- Rays: +500
- Blue Jays: +550
- Twins/Guardians: +1100
Best Regular Season Record
- Braves: +400
- Rays: +450
- Yankees: +600
- Padres: +800
- Dodgers: +800
Odds from DraftKings. Subject to change.
