Best Paul Skenes MLB Prop Bets: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals (9/16/24)

Game Details

• Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
• Date: Monday, Sept. 16
• Time: 7:45 p.m. ET / 6:45 p.m. CT
• Location: Busch Stadium (St. Louis)

Odds Summary

• Moneyline: Pirates -135, Cardinals +115
• Runline: Pirates -1.5 (+125), Cardinals +1.5 (-150)
• Total: Over/Under 7 (-115/-105)

All odds courtesy of Bet365 Sportsbook and subject to change.

Monday’s contest kicks off a four-game series between the Pirates and Cardinals, both of whom are playing out the string. Mired in last place, Pittsburgh is seven games below .500 and headed for a sixth straight losing season. Meanwhile, St. Louis also has a losing record (74-75) and would need a miracle to make the playoffs.

The Cardinals have lost three in a row and have a worse run differential than the Pirates (minus-67 vs. minus-53), so don’t be fooled by their superior record.

This will be Skenes’ third time facing St. Louis. He’s 0-1 with a 1.23 ERA and 16 strikeouts in his previous two outings against the Cards.

He’ll go up against Andre Pallante, who’s 6-8 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in 102 1/3 innings this year. The 25-year-old righty has a 3.33 ERA in 27 career innings against Pittsburgh, albeit with more walks (14) than strikeouts (13).

St. Louis has been solid at home this year (39-35) while the Pirates have struggled a bit on the road (33-38). Accordingly, we like Pittsburgh to win outright on the moneyline but prefer the Cardinals +1.5 on the runline.

As for the total, we’re leaning Over. Seven runs is a low total and gives us little margin for error, so we think the Over has a better chance of hitting.

Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Skenes is averaging 7.6 strikeouts per start and has notched at least seven strikeouts in 14 of 20 starts this season, including both of his starts against St. Louis (eight whiffs both times). He’s shown no signs of slowing down, either, averaging 7.3 strikeouts over his last six outings.

Skenes has been lights-out on the road with a 12.7 K/9 and should be fresh after six days of rest. Look for him to put up another big strikeout total.

Paul Skenes Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-220)

Skenes hasn’t recorded more than 18 outs since July 23, as the Pirates are trying to manage his workload and prevent him from getting hurt in a meaningless game. Over his last eight starts, he’s averaging 17 outs per game.

There’s no reason for Pittsburgh to push Skenes past six innings here, so bank on that trend to continue.

Paul Skenes to Record the Win (+100)

Skenes has recorded a win in four of his last five starts and has a clear advantage over Pallante here. The Pirates should be able to get their ace enough run support to win the game and spot him another win. The plus odds make this wager even more appealing.

This was originally published ahead of the Sept. 9 game between the Pirates and Marlins.

Paul Skenes Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+128)

The Over is always tempting with Skenes, but we like the Under at plus odds. Skenes has gone under this number in three of his last four starts, averaging 6.75 whiffs per outing during that stretch.

Skenes has gone just five innings in each of his last two starts, and the Pirates seem to be scaling back his workload a bit now that they’re out of the playoff race. There’s no need to push him here in a meaningless late-season game for both sides, so he’s unlikely to go more than five or six innings.

That makes it tough for Skenes to rack up at least seven strikeouts. He also has a considerably lower strikeout rate at home than on the road (10.1 K/9 vs. 12.7 K/9), so we think he’ll finish with six.

Result: Skenes finished with nine strikeouts, hitting the Over.

Paul Skenes to Record the Win (-115)

Skenes going up against one of the worst teams in baseball at home is a recipe for a win, especially with a rookie starter pitching for Miami. Bellozo has been wildly inconsistent so far, so Pittsburgh’s bats should be able to give Skenes enough run support for his 10th win (assuming the bullpen does its job).

Result: Skenes recorded the win.

This was originally published ahead of the Aug. 28 game between the Pirates and Cubs.

Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)

With 130 strikeouts in 17 outings, Skenes is averaging 7.6 strikeouts per start. He’s hit the Over on this prop in 13 of his 17 starts (76.5%), including two of his last three.

The Cubs rank in the middle of the pack for strikeout rate (22.6% – 15th-highest in MLB) and have fanned 18 times in 10 innings against Skenes. They haven’t faced him since his first two career starts in May, so he’s improved significantly since then.

We recommend the Over on this prop.

Result: Skenes recorded six strikeouts.

Paul Skenes Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-125)

Skenes has been terrific all season, but he’s not infallible. He’s allowed multiple earned runs in four of his last six starts, including three of his last four.

We expect that trend to continue today against Chicago’s lineup, which has been crushing the ball lately. The Cubs are averaging a whopping 9.8 runs per game over their last six contests, topping six runs in five of those games.

Chicago has already faced Skenes twice this year, so the familiarity could help its hitters have success today.

Result: Skenes allowed two earned runs.

Paul Skenes to Record the Win (-105)

Not only are we backing Skenes to cool off the Cubs’ red-hot bats, but we also think he’ll get plenty of run support against Hendricks. The Pirates torched him for eight runs on 11 hits the last time they faced him and should be able to put up some runs here, giving Skenes an early lead.

Coming off wins in his last two starts, look for Skenes to make it three in a row.

Result: Skenes settled for a no-decision after Pittsburgh’s bullpen blew a massive lead.

This was originally published ahead of the July 29 game between the Pirates and Astros.

Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+125)

With 97 strikeouts in 12 outings, Skenes is averaging 8.1 strikeouts per start. He’s hit the Over on this prop in eight of his last nine starts, including his last five in a row.

The Astros don’t strike out a lot (third-lowest strikeout rate in MLB), but they’ve never faced Skenes before. That should give him an advantage, as it seemingly has in most of his starts so far.

We recommend the Over on this prop, especially at plus odds.

Result: Skenes finished with 6 strikeouts.

Paul Skenes Over 18.5 Outs (+130)

This is a wager on Skenes to complete at least 6 1/3 innings, which he’s done in five of his last seven starts. He’s completed seven innings (21 outs) in four of his last five outings, so he appears to be getting better at navigating lineups and pacing himself.

Skenes has finished at least six frames in 10 of his 12 starts this year, including all five of his road starts. That gives him a good chance to pitch into the seventh inning, making this another appealing wager at plus odds.

Result: Skenes recorded 18 outs.

Paul Skenes Under 1.5 Walks (-180)

Skenes has shown remarkable control, issuing just 13 walks in his 12 starts so far (1.1 walks per start). He did not walk anyone his last time out and has hit the Under on this prop in nine of 12 starts this season.

What’s more, Houston is one of the most aggressive teams in baseball, ranking 28th in walk rate (7.1%). Given the matchup and Skenes’ track record, this looks like a fairly safe bet.

Result: Skenes issued 3 walks.

This was originally published ahead of the July 23 game between the Pirates and Cardinals.

Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-110)

With 89 strikeouts in 11 outings, Skenes is averaging 8.1 strikeouts per start. He’s hit the Over on this prop in seven of his last eight starts, including last month’s gem against the Cardinals.

St. Louis has MLB’s 10th-highest strikeout rate in the second half (24.8%) and the 13th-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers overall (23.2%), making this an attractive matchup for Skenes.

Result: Skenes finished with 8 strikeouts.

Paul Skenes Over 17.5 Outs (-210)

This is a wager on Skenes to complete at least six innings, which he’s done in nine of his 11 starts. He’s completed seven innings (21 outs) in three of his last four outings, so he appears to be getting better at navigating lineups and pacing himself.

The Cardinals aren’t a major threat to knock Skenes out of the game early, as they rank below average in most offensive categories. They also have one of the lowest walk rates in the majors (7.6% – 23rd), so they’re unlikely to drive up his pitch count.

Accordingly, we also like Skenes to go under 1.5 walks (-140). He’s issued multiple free passes in only three of his 11 starts and is averaging just 1.2 walks per start.

Result: Skenes recorded 25 outs.

Paul Skenes to Record the Win: Yes (+105)

Pitcher wins can be hard to predict due to all the factors beyond a starter’s control (run support, defense, bullpen performance, etc.), but Skenes makes it easier than most. His dominance and ability to pitch deep into games makes him a strong candidate to earn the W every time he takes the mound.

He’s earned six wins in his last 10 starts, so we like his chances of getting another one today against a middling opponent, especially at plus odds.

Result: Skenes recorded his first MLB loss.

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