MLB Stolen Bases Prop Bets: What To Know

MLB’s new rules have dramatically altered various parts of the sport, intentionally and unintentionally. Several of those changes benefited would-be base stealers.

The most radical change was the introduction of a pitch clock, which stipulates that a pitcher must deliver the ball within 15 seconds of receiving it when nobody is on base and within 20 seconds when runners are on.

This has made it easier for baserunners to time pitchers, as they know hurlers must throw home by a certain point. Pitchers can no longer “hold” runners at a base as easily by stalling and repeatedly checking them.

Similarly, there is also a limit on the number of pickoff attempts a pitcher can make. Pitchers are only allowed to make two pickoff attempts per at-bat, whereas they could previously throw over as many times as they wanted.

This makes life easier for baserunners, as they no longer need to worry about pickoff throws after the pitcher has already attempted two. They can also take a larger lead after the second pickoff attempt.

MLB also expanded the size of the bases, which are now roughly equivalent to a standard pizza box.

While the intended effect was to improve player safety by reducing collisions and base-related injuries, the new bases also shortened the distance between the bags, slightly reducing the distance baserunners have to cover and making them more difficult to throw out.

Red Sox manager Alex Cora says baseball’s new, bigger bases “look like a pizza box,” and Padres star Manny Machado noticed they feel different, too, but "look better.”

Here’s why MLB is making the change: https://t.co/db0I2eXqK2 pic.twitter.com/7RwWMEr2Wh

— The Associated Press (@AP) February 23, 2023

Unsurprisingly, these factors caused an explosion of base-stealing in 2023.

In 2022, the average MLB game had 1.4 stolen base attempts, 1.0 stolen bases and a 75.4% success rate.

In 2023, those numbers rose to 1.8, 1.4 and 80.2% (an MLB record), respectively.

Time will tell if those trends hold in 2024, or if pitchers and catchers will adjust to reduce base-stealing.

Baseball tends to be cyclical and is a game of constant adjustments, but there’s no denying that baserunners gained a clear advantage in 2023.

With steals up across the board last year, are the conditions favorable enough for someone to swipe 100 bags in a season?

Hugh Nicol of the Cincinnati Red Stockings stole 138 bases in 1887, but most people don’t consider that the record. The game had different rules then and the American League hadn’t even been established yet.

The modern record belongs to Rickey Henderson, who stole 130 bases in 1982 for the Oakland Athletics. He finished his career with 1,406 stolen bases – the most in MLB history.

The last player with at least 100 steals in an MLB season was St. Louis Cardinals speedster Vince Coleman (pictured), who racked up 109 thefts in 1987. That was Coleman’s third straight year in triple digits, so it wasn’t as big of a deal then.

Coleman’s feat was the 21st instance in MLB history of a player topping 100 steals in a season, although only the eighth since 1900. Only 12 men in baseball history have pulled off the historic achievement, including just four since 1900.

The game has changed considerably since then for a number of reasons.

• Teams began to de-emphasize the stolen base after analytics revealed that the risk of stealing a base (getting thrown out) was typically not worth the reward.
• Increased pitching velocities and bullpen usage made getting on base more difficult, resulting in fewer opportunities for steals. Faster pitches also reach home plate quicker, giving runners less time to steal.
• Batters responded by bulking up and changing their swings to hit more home runs, trading contact and speed for power.
• Baseball stadiums shifted away from artificial turf in the 1990s, reducing the need for faster players skilled at slapping the ball through the infield.

Stolen bases declined precipitously over the past few decades, and nobody has come close to equaling Coleman’s feat. No player has tallied 80 steals since 1988. Marquis Grissom (1992) and Jose Reyes (2007) are tied for the most steals since then with 78.

Those trends finally reversed in 2023, as the rule changes sparked an increase in base-stealing. MLB players were successful on a record 80.2% of their stolen-base attempts, up from 75.4% in 2022.

While nobody approached 100 stolen bases, Atlanta Braves superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. led the majors with 73 – the most since Reyes’ 78 in 2007. He also slugged 41 home runs, becoming just the fifth player in MLB history with at least 40 homers and 40 steals in the same season. He received National League MVP honors for his efforts.

Oakland A’s outfielder Esteury Ruiz finished second with 67 steals, marking the first time since 2009 that multiple players surpassed 60 steals.

Acuña led the majors with 87 steal attempts and played nearly every game, appearing in 159 of the Braves’ 162 games. He will need to be even more aggressive on the bases if he wants to have a realistic chance of threatening 100 steals, which seems unlikely given how much talent is behind him in Atlanta’s lineup. Why risk running into an out when so many Braves players are capable of driving him in?

Perhaps teams will look to steal even more bases in 2024 after seeing how successful base-stealers were in 2023. However, it’s also possible that pitchers and catchers will acclimate to the new rules and do a better job of suppressing steals.

At some legal online US sportsbooks, you can wager on which player will lead MLB in stolen bases over the entire season. It’s a straightforward futures bet, as only a handful of players have the speed and opportunities to lead the league in steals. That’s why you often see the same players win multiple stolen base titles in their careers.

At DraftKings Sportsbook, Acuña has the shortest odds to lead the majors in steals in 2024 at +150, followed by Ruiz at +280. Acuña has only led the majors in steals once in his six-year career, so the biggest key for him is staying healthy.

He’s played at least 120 games just twice in his career and suffered a torn ACL in 2021.

Reigning NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll is a viable bet at +550 odds after stealing 54 bases (third-most in MLB) in 59 attempts last season. If he continues to progress this year by reaching base more frequently and attempting more steals, he could lead the majors, especially if Acuña misses time due to injury.

It’s also possible to wager on whether a player will go Over or Under a certain number of stolen bases in a season.

For example, DraftKings has the line for Acuña set at 56.5 steals with -115 odds on the Over and -105 odds on the Under. Given that he’s topped 40 steals just once in his career, the Under appears to be the safer bet.

You can place these wagers on other prominent players as well, including Shohei Ohtani and Trea Turner. However, these markets aren’t available for every player.

Once the season starts, it’s also possible to wager on stolen base prop bets, like whether a player will steal a base during a specific game or how many bases a team will steal in a game.

It’s hard to predict stolen bases (which is why they usually have plus odds) because players aren’t guaranteed to get an opportunity every game, but it could be a worthwhile wager if a batter is facing a pitcher who gives up a lot of hits, walks and/or stolen bases.

Similarly, you can also target a catcher who struggles to throw out base-stealers.