With all due respect to the American League West and the NL West, the AL East is the toughest division in baseball. That was evident in 2023, when every team in the division won at least 78 games.
A different team has won the AL East in each of the past three seasons, and every team in the division has made the playoffs during that time.
The division’s parity makes it difficult to predict who will finish first in the standings. Even sportsbooks seem to be having a hard time based on the futures odds at DraftKings Sportsbook:
- New York Yankees: +185
- Baltimore Orioles: +185
- Toronto Blue Jays: +400
- Tampa Bay Rays: +550
- Boston Red Sox: +1700
While the Yankees are getting a lot of love after trading for Juan Soto in the offseason, we think the Orioles and Rays are better bets, especially at plus odds.
Below, Tyler Maher will explain why he likes the Orioles, while Henry Palattella will make his case for the Rays.
Baltimore Orioles AL East Prediction
The Orioles have enjoyed a meteoric rise in recent seasons, going from 52 wins in 2021 to 83 wins in 2022 and 101 wins in 2023. Baltimore finished 2023 with the best record in the American League and won its first division title since 2014.
After an impressive offseason where they traded for Corbin Burnes and signed Craig Kimbrel, the Orioles are poised to repeat as division champs in 2024. Here are some reasons why:
- The Orioles were the only AL team to win over 100 games last year, and they did it despite playing in baseball’s toughest division. The AL East was the only division where four of the five teams had a winning record, and the Boston Red Sox (78-84) narrowly missed.
- The Orioles had a winning record against every team in their division, going 32-20 against AL East opponents.
- The Orioles got better as the season progressed. From July 1 onward (excluding the playoffs), they went 53-29 (a 105-win pace) with a plus-109 run differential.
- The Orioles had a .605 winning percentage on the road last year, proving they can win anywhere.
- The Orioles ranked fourth in the AL in scoring last year and return most of their starting lineup intact. That includes Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, both of whom finished top-10 in AL MVP voting last season.
- Rutschman leads all catchers in FanGraphs WAR since debuting in 2022.
- Burnes is a bona fide ace. He’s made three straight All-Star teams and previously won a Cy Young award, an ERA title and a strikeout title.
- Kimbrel ranks second among active players in career saves and has been an All-Star in nine of the last 13 seasons. He also won a World Series and has already spent three seasons in the AL East.
- The Orioles are young, so they still have room to grow. They had the seventh-youngest lineup in baseball last year, according to Baseball-Reference, and none of their projected starting position players are going to be over age 30.
- The Orioles have at least five quality starting pitchers in their rotation with Burnes, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and John Means, so getting reliable innings shouldn’t be a problem.
- According to MLB Pipeline, the Orioles have the No. 1 farm system in baseball as well as the No. 1 prospect (Jackson Holliday). They have plenty of assets to tap into if they need to call up reinforcements or trade prospects for established talent during the season.
- The Orioles have a new ownership group led by David Rubenstein. Unlike the previous ownership group, which consistently ran one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, the new ownership group is expected to spend more and be more committed to winning. According to Spotrac, Baltimore’s payroll is already up 29% from last year, jumping from $71 million to $92 million.
- The Orioles have one of the best GMs in baseball in Mike Elias, who has built the best farm system in the league and a 101-win team at the MLB level. Baltimore is equipped to contend for years to come.
Given all that, I’ll happily take the Orioles at +185 to win the division. I also like them at +550 to win the pennant and +1100 to win the World Series.
Tampa Bay Rays AL East Prediction
Why do I believe in the Rays? Well, because they’re inevitable.
I’ve seen all the offseason talk about how the Yankees are a World Series favorite and the Orioles are a powerhouse in waiting. And in a way, I agree. Soto and Burnes are both good baseball players who make their respective teams better.
But let’s not forget that Tampa Bay has made the playoffs in each of the last five seasons – the only AL East team to do so. The Rays also won the division twice during that span. No matter what happens or who’s on the roster, they always find a way to October.
Let’s look at their last three seasons specifically:
- 2021: Won 100 games and repeated as AL East champions. Wander Franco had a breakout rookie season, Mike Zunino was an All-Star, and they had a team OPS+ of 110.
- 2022: Took a step back but still won 86 games and qualified for the postseason. They only hit 139 home runs (25th in MLB) but had the fourth-best team ERA in baseball (3.41) and were in a division that featured a historic year from Aaron Judge and the Yankees.
- 2023: Started the season with 13 consecutive wins and reached the postseason for the fifth year in a row. Their lineup had only one regular with an OPS+ under 100, while their pitching staff had a 3.86 ERA (fifth in MLB) and recorded 1,507 strikeouts (fourth-most in baseball).
Which brings us to this year.
There’s no denying that Tampa Bay will have an uphill battle to win the division. Tyler Glasnow was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers, while starters Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan (who combined for a 2.87 ERA in 175 2/3 innings last season) are injured. With Franco on administrative leave, things suddenly look bleak in St. Petersburg.
But not so fast.
I really like the addition of Ryan Pepiot, who had a 2.14 ERA in 42 innings with the Dodgers last season. I’m excited to see what he can do under pitching coach Kyle Snyder’s tutelage.
The rest of the rotation has a chance to be effective as well. Zach Eflin (16-8, 3.50 ERA) performed well in the first year of his three-year contract, former top prospect Taj Bradley looks poised for a breakout, and Aaron Civale should be better after a full offseason in the Rays system.
And then there’s Tampa Bay’s offense. The Rays got rid of their only lineup regular who finished last year with an OPS+ under 100 (Christian Bethancourt) and replaced him with René Pinto, a slugging catcher with 20-homer potential. The rest of Tampa’s lineup is a good mix of proven players and prospects with potential.
Yandy Díaz finally started hitting the ball in the air last season, resulting in a batting title and a top-10 MVP finish. Isaac Parades (31 home runs), Randy Arozarena (23 HR), José Siri (25 HR) and Josh Lowe (20 HR) are all back after strong seasons in 2023.
The biggest name to watch outside of that group is Junior Caminero. The 20-year-old is coming off a 31-homer season in the minors in 2023 and hit .231 with a home run in 26 at-bats in the majors last year. He’ll open the season in Triple-A, but it shouldn’t be long until the sport’s No. 4 prospect becomes a household name.
While the Rays are the epitome of a small-market team, they’ve proven for nearly two decades that they can win on a tight budget.
The sportsbooks can keep doubting Tampa Bay. I won’t.
Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
