Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies
- When: Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2022
- Time: 8:03 p.m. ET
- Where: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, PA)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Astros (-102), Phillies (-116)
- Runline: Astros -1.5 (+160), Phillies +1.5 (-194)
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 Runs (+100/-122)
Note: Odds and lines are current from FanDuel Sportsbook at time of writing and subject to change.
The Philadelphia Phillies’ unlikely postseason run continued in Game 3 when they shut out and beat down the Houston Astros 7-0. It was the first World Series game played in Philly since 2009, and the home team did not disappoint. Bryce Harper crushed the first pitch he saw into the bleachers in what would be the first of five home runs on the night for the Phillies. The Astros didn’t have a single extra-base hit and struck out seven times.
The Phillies head into Game 4 in a perfect position to put Houston on the verge of elimination. The trouble is whether Aaron Nola can shake off his awful Game 1 start against Houston last week. It was his second bad start in a row after allowing the Padres six runs in 4 ⅔ innings the series prior. Nola has allowed 11 runs in his last nine innings pitched. Not a great look for a guy heading into the most important start of his career.
The Phillies’ offense may have to come through again if Nola lays another egg. Good thing the Phils’ offense has dominated the playoffs with 72 runs off 104 hits and 22 home runs. The Astros’ offense can’t hold a candle to those figures, with 41 runs, 80 hits and 15 long balls. So, should Nola remember how to keep the ball in the park, Philly could run away with Game 4.
While the Astros’ offense hasn’t been as explosive as the Phillies, their team ERA of 2.64 is better than the Phillies at 3.05. With Nola pitching, several guys in this rotation give the Astros a clear pitching edge. Cristian Javier may fall into that category, but the Astros are handing him the rock in this pivotal game.
Before all the Astros fans throw their computers out the window, we aren’t saying Javier is a lousy pitcher. His 2.54 ERA and 0.95 WHIP speak for themselves. But, assuming Nola gets back in line, we don’t feel Javier gives Houston an advantage.
However, we see a big difference between these offenses, with Houston having been outscored 12-2 in their last two games. One of those games was against likely Cy Young winner Justin Verlander. Why would we expect Javier to shine if Verlander can’t stop this lineup?
Thanks to the Phillies’ heavy-hitting roster, home win rate and solid pitching, Philly is a baseball betting favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook on the moneyline for the first time in this series.
Best Bet Today: Phillies vs. Astros
As much as we love how the Phillies are hitting right now, we’ve lost faith in Nola after two straight crushing losses. His ERA in those starts is well over 10.00 combined, and we don’t expect a miraculous 180 to occur. As far as Javier, he has solid numbers, but we still don’t trust him in such a prominent spot.
With that in mind, we’re going to side with the hitters and make a play on the total. With two explosive offenses and a big Nola-sized question mark on the mound, this is a spot to grab the over 7.5 (+100). At even odds, that’s a fair play.
Same-Game Parlay: Phillies vs. Astros
Same-game parlays are a way to increase the odds and potential payout as opposed to making bets separately. For more information, check out our guide on how to place a same-game parlay.
Here are the three prop bets we’ve selected for Wednesday’s World Series Game 4:
- Brandon Marsh to Record a Hit (-120)
- Christian Javier Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-102)
- Bryce Harper to Record 2+ Total Bases (+120)
The first leg of our World Series same-game parlay for Wednesday is for Brandon Marsh to record a hit. He may not be a household name, but he has had three hits in this series, including a big home run in Game 3. Marsh also owns Javier with a .571 batting average with a double and four hits in seven plate appearances against the pitcher.
Speaking of Javier, he is the second leg of our parlay. Javier keeps batters off the bases and runs off the board, but he has yet to strike out many guys in the playoffs. We are not worried about this, though, because he went over this total in eight of his last nine regular season starts. This game might get away from Javier, but six strikeouts from him isn’t a huge ask.
Finally, Bryce Harper rounds out our same-game parlay picks for Game 4. If the Phillies win the World Series, Harper would be the obvious pick for MVP, with a stupid .382 in the playoffs. He has already had three hits and a walk in this series, including a home run last night. If anyone is a good bet to go off, it’s Harper.
Combining this trio of wagers into a same-game parlay raises the odds to +832 at FanDuel. At those odds, a winning $100 bet would return $832.99.
