Love him or hate him, Colby Covington is one of the best UFC fighters.
The Clovis, California, native moved to Oregon early in his youth, where he began his life in combat sports as a wrestler. Covington impressed in high school, committing to Arizona State University.
However, he wound up at Iowa State Community College because of weak test scores. From there, he found his way to the University of Iowa before landing at Oregon State University.
Covington’s strong grappling skills carried him to the NCAA Tournament and represented his key to success once starting MMA.
Covington always possessed the ability to become a standout in the 170-pound welterweight division. However, it wasn’t until he developed a brash and outspoken character that he began garnering attention.
The consistent trash talk from Covington turned many fans and fighters sour on “Chaos,” but in the end, he backed it up with his actions in the cage.
Covington vs. Edwards UFC 296
Covington is the next challenger for current UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards. Edwards opened as a -135 odds favorite, while Covington opened at +114. It’s essentially a 50-50 fight if you ignore the vigorish.
UFC President Dana White announced in September that Edwards vs. Covington will take place on Dec. 16, 2023, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
There’s been a long buildup to the Edwards-Covington fight.
UFC 286 in March 2023 provided a surprise with the re-emergence of Covington in the public eye, who acted as the main event replacement fighter for Edwards’ title defense against Kamaru Usman. Covington hadn’t fought in over a year when he defeated his bitter rival Jorge Masvidal by unanimous decision.
The Masvidal win put Covington back in the win column. Accompanied by his willingness to serve as a backup fighter, White rewarded him with the next title shot.
The only argument to be made for Covington’s title shot is that the UFC is a business and the popular choice often outweighs merit. The wrestling standout is 2-2 in his last four fights, alternating wins and losses, with the latter from two title fights opposite Usman.
Aside from Masvidal, Covington’s other win in that stretch was a September 2020 TKO of former UFC champion Tyron Woodley via rib injury.
Covington’s shot at Edwards would be easier to justify based on the popularity factor alone if there weren’t multiple better options at welterweight. Belal Muhammad was the clearest contender, having gone unbeaten over his last 10 fights. Comparatively, Muhammad won three fights against top-10 opponents since Covington defeated Masvidal.
In a perfect world, Muhammad would challenge Edwards next while Covington tries to hand 17-0 finishing sensation Shavkat Rakhmonov a loss. However, the UFC decided to go a different way.
Colby Covington MMA Record
Covington has proved a balanced and nearly unstoppable force throughout his 17-3 run in MMA. While his finishing rate isn’t too high, splitting knockout and submission wins at four a piece, Covington makes up for it with other attributes.
The pressure and pace applied by “Chaos” provide exactly that for his opponents, as they’re overwhelmed by flurries of punches and nonstop takedown attempts. Three out of Covington’s 15 UFC fights saw him close as the betting underdog, with two of those coming in his Usman encounters.
The other? That came in Covington’s coming out party against Demian Maia in Brazil.
Covington closed as a +100 underdog for the Maia bout and silenced the doubters in a big way. Maia was fresh off his welterweight title defeat to the then-champion Woodley and remained a perpetual threat with his historic submission and grappling abilities.
Wrestling defensively, Covington kept the fight on the feet, where he bloodied and battered Maia with his high-volume attack. Covington stuffed all 13 of the Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace’s takedown attempts and nearly finished Maia in the waning seconds of the bout, all before insulting the entire nation of Brazil on the microphone as he fled from the scene in victory.
The Maia win led Covington to an interim title bout with another talented Brazilian, former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos. What made the matchup so intriguing was they stylistically mirrored each other in several respects.
Perhaps the biggest differences were size in favor of Covington and the power edge to dos Anjos. The former champ ultimately couldn’t keep up for five straight rounds, and “Chaos” outworked his way to his first taste of UFC gold by unanimous decision.
Another former title-holder fell to Covington after dos Anjos. Unfortunately for Robbie Lawler, he was on the receiving end of what is arguably Covington’s brightest performance.
In vintage form, Covington blended his striking into his wrestling beautifully throughout, giving “Ruthless” no opportunities to comprehend his next moves. It was a record-setting fight for Covington, who threw 541 total strikes en route to a unanimous decision.
Even in two defeats to Usman, there were plenty of positives displayed by Covington. There are even arguments that he should have won the rematch on the scorecards.
The first fight with Usman delivered an instant classic and showed the well-roundedness of both the wrestling-based welterweights. Neither attempted a single takedown in the fight and connected at least 140 strikes each.
The Woodley and Masvidal wins were more of the vintage showings expected from Covington. Thus far, Usman remains the only opponent to stifle a prime Covington.
Colby Covington Futures Odds
Fighting only once per year since 2019, Covington is again on track for just one fight in 2023. Luckily for bettors, that appearance is a title fight. His +500 UFC futures odds at DraftKings Sportsbook to end 2024 as champion is an interesting bet.
Covington, a Miami resident, always comes prepared and capable of hanging with any fighter, proving that inactivity isn’t a factor in his performance. Against the champion Edwards, Covington poses a unique threat thanks to his relentless pace and consistent takedown attempts.
Edwards’ defense was a highlight in his Usman trilogy bout, thwarting a consistent effort from “The Nigerian Nightmare.” The Covington pairing is a competitive one. If Edwards can’t maintain his gas tank, he’ll be in a world of trouble as the fight progresses.
Betting on Covington to hold the title at the end of 2024 is essentially betting on him against Edwards and another to-be-determined opponent. If Covington beats Edwards, it’s unclear who would be his first title defense.
Here are the top five on the DraftKings odds board to hold the welterweight belt at the end of 2024:
- Leon Edwards: +140
- Belal Muhammad: +300
- Shavkat Rakhmonov: +450
- Colby Covington: +500
- Kamaru Usman: +1000
Odds subject to change.
