The MMA world expects any fighter out of Dagestan to have a strong foundation in the wrestling department thanks to experience in the art of Sambo. Islam Makhachev has proven no exception throughout his career.
Makhachev is a smothering pressure wrestler with breathtaking control on top. Opponents often suffer a smashing of fists and elbows en route to a TKO or submission loss when caught between the rock and hard place that is one of the lightweight division’s finest.
For many years, Makhachev was touted as Khabib Nurmagomedov 2.0 by those around him, including Nurmagomedov. Their similarities are undeniable with their grappling dominance.
Makhachev’s success has come primarily via his strong ground game, but over time, the best lightweight on the planet has also proven to be an elite-tier striker. It’s the start of the Makhachev era, and it may be long-lasting.
Who Will Islam Makhachev Fight Next?
Makhachev could end 2023 having only fought twice. The Sambo-smashing machine watches from the sidelines as the lightweight division sorts itself out.
UFC 289 in June will feature a pivotal matchup between former champion Charles Oliveira and surging perennial top contender Beneil Dariush. Oliveira was already offered an instant rematch after his October 2022 encounter that crowned Makhachev. Instead, “Do Bronx” felt he wasn’t ready and now targets the rematch by halting Dariush’s momentum.
Although the featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski wants his rematch with Makhachev, the Oliveira-Dariush winner was a lock for the next title shot in October. Especially if it’s Dariush, as a win over Oliveira would put him on a nine-fight unbeaten streak. He arguably deserves a title shot without getting through Oliveira, but there isn’t a much better way to seal the deal on your No. 1-ranked contender status.
As amazing as another Volkanovski fight would be, he has an interim title holder awaiting him. Dariush and Makhachev have been lined up to fight in the past, and it’s a phenomenal stylistic clash. It’s also the toughest for the dominant Makhachev in the division. Oliveira could play spoiler, and although it would only be a one-fight win “streak,” beating Dariush would be a fine enough justification for a rematch with Makhachev.
With possible injury and heal-time consideration for the Oliveira-Dariush winner, Volkanovski may have a minimal chance of sneaking back into a champion vs. champion affair. The Australian legend will defend against Yair Rodriguez in summer 2023. If all goes his way, he’d be healthy enough to fight again at the end of 2023, whether against Makhachev or another featherweight challenger.
Islam Makhachev MMA Record
Makhachev’s lifetime resume shows several combat Sambo accolades, including 2016 gold medals in the World Sambo Championships and FIAS, four Combat Sambo Federation of Russia crowns, and a title in the Russian Nationals.
Whenever someone can reach 20-plus fights with only one loss, it’s rare territory. In 25 bouts, Makhachev has done exactly that and has barely met resistance. In the UFC, he’s closed as the betting odds favorite in all 14 of his fights. Opening odds had him even at -120 for his Adriano Martins and Chris Wade matchups.
The lone loss for Makhachev is largely considered a fluke, getting knocked out in under two minutes by journeyman Martins in his second octagon appearance. Until Makhachev’s last with Volkanovski, Oliveira had set the record for most strikes landed on Makhachev in the Russian’s UFC career at a mere 25, showing how dominant he’s been in his last 12 fights. Oddsmakers had full faith in the Russian despite the competition boosts, closing as a significant -400 favorite vs. Volkanovski and -245 vs. Oliveira.
Makhachev finds submissions more than any other method of victory, forcing the tap or nap 11 times with four finishes via strikes. Makhachev’s biggest and best wins were his last two, notably his instant classic with the pound-for-pound best at the time, Volkanovski.
Makhachev was forced to utilize his striking more often than he was accustomed to against “The Great.” Regardless, he managed to hang and ultimately defeat the thought-to-be superior striker and champion via a unanimous decision. The win didn’t come without speed bumps. Makhachev took some to give some, displaying he could get through adversities in a drawn-out battle in what was his first full-five round experience.
The Oliveira fight was as anticipated as any matchup in recent years. Two of the lightweight division’s longest winning streaks collided, but the result was far from competitive as fans hoped. Makhachev had his way with the Brazilian, stifling any jiu-jitsu threats with his pressure and top control or pinning Oliveira to the cage on the feet. In round two, Makhachev’s hands did the damage, dropping the former champion before following him to the ground and locking on a tight arm-triangle choke. The UFC record holder for submission wins stunningly fell victim to a submission loss in arguably his biggest career bout, halting his epic run and expanding Makhachev’s.
Oliveira wasn’t the first jiu-jitsu black belt to fall victim to Makhachev, however. Thiago Moises and Davi Ramos were early indicators that Makhachev would be safe on the mats with “Do Bronx” despite a significantly higher degree of danger. Sandwiching those two victories were highlight-reel dominations of fan-favorite strikers Bobby Green, Dan Hooker, and Drew Dober. Against the latter, Makhachev’s violent submission game was on full display as he nearly ripped off Hooker’s arm with a kimura halfway through round one. Dober managed to last until round three, getting thoroughly outwrestled before suffering defeat via an arm triangle.
Green was never a stylistic threat to Makhachev and the now-champion’s whopping -1250 closing moneyline reflected that. The manner in which Makhachev performed on just 10 days’ notice was what made it most impressive. Makhachev pushed the pace immediately, tossing “King” to the floor and relentlessly battering him until the referee had seen enough. Thiago Moises is the only other opponent where Makhachev closed over or at -1000.
It’s an interesting case with Makhachev, as it can be with a lot of dominant wrestlers. His record can be nitpicked and argued as “not that great” on paper, with limited top-ranked wins, but the performances speak for themselves. If anything, his last two wins against legitimately elite competition wipe away any more doubt there could be. As time goes on, clear wins over fighters like Arman Tsarukyan are only looking better as the youthful contender rises through the ranks, looking his own degree of unstoppable.
Odds for Islam Makhachev to Keep the Belt
Around the midpoint of 2023, Makhachev was sitting at a justifiable -280 in UFC futures odds to remain champion by year’s end.
UFC 294 in Abu Dhabi looked guaranteed to be Makhachev’s return defense as long as he doesn’t get injured. Even if that were to happen, he won’t be fighting before that date, and certainly wouldn’t get rebooked before 2024.
Makhachev’s odds should shift somewhat significantly depending on the outcome of Oliveira vs. Dariush. Should Dariush win, the gap will shrink. If Oliveira gets back in the win column and gets his rematch, the odds will stay roughly the same or extend for Makhachev. “Do Bronx” will need to show there’s reason to believe a second fight with the champion would go differently than the largely one-sided first meeting.
It’s a safe bet on Makhachev to be champion at the start of 2024. If you’re comfortable with his potential chances of getting and beating Dariush, wait and grab the likely slimmer odds later in the summer. If not, dropping something on the current -280 will be as good as they’ll get, with all things considered.
