Some sportsbooks are offering one of the worst bets you’ll find for Saturday’s UFC 285.
The main event of the highly-anticipated Las Vegas card is Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane. At BetMGM Sportsbook, Jones to win inside the first minute of the fight is priced at +4000 odds. Per BetMGM, it’s one of the most heavily-bet props for the heavyweight title fight.
That’s mind-boggling because it’s so unlikely, and +4000 isn’t close to a playable price. Jones hasn’t won a fight inside the first minute since 2008, and it wasn’t in the UFC.
The +4000 odds mean that you would win $4,000 for every $100 bet. That may sound enticing, but we’ll explain why it’s a lousy deal for sports betting consumers.
What also makes it so unlikely Jones wins inside the first minute?
- He’s been out of competition for three years
- His last three fights went all five rounds
- He’s generally a slow starter
- Jones isn’t known for KO power
- Gane has never been finished
- Jones is expected to wrestle, which eats seconds off the clock
- UFC fights ending within 60 seconds are rare
Jones winning inside the first minute is certainly possible, as nearly anything can happen in MMA. However, +4000 has an implied probability of about 2.5%, which is inflated.
In other words, there’s no value at this price point.
BetMGM isn’t alone in offering this prop bet. PointsBet Sportsbook has Jones to win inside 60 seconds at even worse +3000. FanDuel Sportsbook offers +7500 on Jones to win in the first 30 seconds, which is also unplayable. This is just a snapshot of the many betting sites regulated by sports betting states in the U.S.
Jones vs. Gane Moneyline
Plenty of other UFC 285 bets exist, so avoid this Jones prop. If you’re new to MMA betting, we recommend starting with the moneyline. It’s simply wagering on who wins, regardless of method or time.
The main event moneyline prices can vary slightly based on the sportsbook.
On fight day, Jones was around a -170 favorite, compared to around +140 for Gane. If you think Jones will win, look for a moneyline as close to plus-money odds as possible (Jones is a favorite at every sportsbook, so his odds will be negative everywhere). If you think the underdog Gane will get his hand raised, look for as large a plus-money number as possible.
Price shopping can require registering for an account at an online sportsbook that you have not used before. While registering takes only a few minutes, you must enter your personal information, including your social security number. It’s up to you whether you want to sign up for a new betting site to get a slightly better moneyline price on either fighter.
The main card of UFC 285 kicks off at 7 p.m. local time in Las Vegas (10 p.m. ET). The start time of the Jones-Gane main event will likely be around 12:00 a.m. ET.
