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After nearly a year, UFC royalty will face off in the octagon when current heavyweight champion Jon Jones takes on former two-time champ Stipe Miocic in the headline fight of UFC 309 at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 16.
They were previously scheduled to fight at UFC 295 last November, but Jones had to withdraw after suffering a torn pectoral muscle while training that required surgery. Jones is heavily favored to beat Miocic.
The event also includes a lightweight rematch between former champion Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler. Oliveira won by TKO when the two faced off in May 2021.
This card is incredible, as it features two of the three fighters in the MMA GOAT conversation. Keep reading for our UFC 309 preview and how to bet on it at our favorite UFC betting sites.
UFC 309 Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
- Heavyweight Championship: Jon Jones -625 vs. Stipe Miocic +455
- Lightweight: Charles Oliveira -258 vs. Michael Chandler +210
- Middleweight: Bo Nickal -1100 vs. Paul Craig +700
- Heavyweight: Marcin Tybura -148 vs. Jhonata Diniz +124
- Bantamweight: Jonathan Martinez +114 vs. Marcus McGhee -135
- Welterweight: Mickey Gall -142 vs. Raminz Brahimaj +120
- Women Flyweight: Veronica Hardy -148 vs. Eduarda Moura +124
- Lightweight: Jim Miller +142 vs. Damon Jackson -170
- Women Flyweight: Viviane Araujo +215 vs. Karine Silva -265
- Light Heavyweight: Nikita Krylov -180 vs. Azamat Murzakanov +150
- Middleweight: Chris Weidman +102 vs. Eryk Anders -122
- Welterweight: Basil Hafez +200 vs. Oban Elliot -245
- Lightweight: Mauricio Ruffy -800 vs. James Liontop +550
Jones vs. Miocic Prediction
The sportsbooks seem to think Miocic’s age and layoff will negatively affect him. Jones is a heavy -625 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Miocic is a +455 underdog.
Not surprisingly, Jones is garnering a lot of attention from the betting public. As of Nov. 15, 75% of the fight’s moneyline bets at DraftKings are on Jones to win.
We’ll also back Jones on the moneyline, specifically winning by KO/TKO/DQ or decision (-175). There’s always the chance that Jones gets Miocic on the ground and defeats him by submission (neither fighter is nimble on the ground at this stage in his career), but we like this fight to either end with a knockout or drag on until the bitter end.
We also don’t hate Miocic’s +5.5 fight spread odds (+275), but we recommend betting that at half of your normal betting unit.
Looking to watch this fight? Check out our UFC streaming page.
How To Bet on Jones vs. Miocic
The simplest bet to make for this fight is on the moneyline. That’s a wager on which fighter will win, regardless of the method of victory or length of the fight.
Jones is a -625 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings, which means that you’d have to wager $625 to win $100. Miocic is a +455 underdog, so you’d win $455 if your $100 bet on him cashes.
Another straightforward bet is the Over/Under on the total number of rounds the fight will last. Over 2.5 rounds has +124 odds and Under 2.5 rounds has -160 odds.
You can also bet on the method of victory as a prop bet. Jones winning by KO/TKO/DQ has the shortest odds at +120, while Jones winning by submission is +200 and him winning by decision is +400.
Miocic’s odds to win by KO/TKO/DQ are +700, by decision are +1400 and by submission are +3500.
Bettors can also wager on whether the fight will go the distance. The fight ending early has -475 odds compared to +300 odds of going the distance.
Lastly, you can combine multiple wagers into a parlay to get longer odds and take a shot at a higher payout. For example, you can bet on a fighter to win and for the match to go over or under a certain number of rounds.
Jon Jones Record (27-1, 10 KOs)
The youngest champion in UFC history, Jones has the most light heavyweight title wins, most title defenses, most wins and longest win streak in the sport’s history. His only loss came in 2009 through a controversial disqualification on an illegal elbow against Matt Hamill.
While Jones is one of the best fighters in UFC history, he’s also had his fair share of controversy outside of the octagon. As a result, he’s had his title stripped three separate times.
The first time came in 2015 when he was arrested on felony hit-and-run charges. He also had it stripped in 2016 and 2017 after testing positive for banned substances.
Jones took three years away from the sport from 2020 to 2023 before returning with his aforementioned victory over Gane, which he won via a guillotine choke submission in the first round.
While he’s not the same fighter he was when he was younger, the 37-year-old is still regarded as one of the best fighters in UFC history. He’s known for his strong front and roundhouse kicks along with his strong hitting ability on the ground.
This will be his first time facing Miocic, making this one of the biggest fights in UFC history. It might be the last time these two legacy fighters get a chance to shine before the new generation of fighters comes in.
Stipe Miocic Record (20-4, 15 KOs)
At 42, Miocic has spent the better part of the last two decades building an incredible resume that ranks among the best in UFC history. He holds the record for most wins in heavyweight title fights and the longest title defense streak in the heavyweight division (three).
That said, Miocic hasn’t fought much recently. This will be only his fourth fight since 2019 and his first fight since 2021.
That 2019 match was arguably the biggest fight of Miocic’s career, as he defeated Daniel Cormier with a fourth-round TKO in a rematch. They fought again in a trilogy match in 2020, which Miocic won via unanimous decision.
While Jones is coming back from an injury, Miocic arguably has an even bigger mountain to climb after his three-year layoff, especially at his advanced age. Miocic hasn’t won a fight since 2020 and will be facing off against Father Time just as much as he’ll be facing off against one of the greatest fighters in UFC history.
Dana White has already said he believes Miocic will retire after the fight, so this could be his last chance to shock the world and leave on top.
