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The UFC is typically bet pre-fight, such as the moneyline, method of victory prop bets and Over/Under the total number of rounds. Live betting is popular among some bettors, and it’s also possible to wager on UFC spreads at DraftKings.
A less common but interesting way to bet MMA is with UFC futures. It’s like wagering who will win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the NFL season. You get to dust off your crystal ball and make some long-term predictions. The UFC doesn’t have seasons, so you bet on who will hold the belt in a particular division at the end of the calendar year.
The main drawback to futures is that your money is tied up for months, but you can potentially find some playable UFC futures wagers before things unfold. It’s a good opportunity to research fighters and see if you can find a worthwhile bet.
You might not find any UFC futures odds worth playing at UFC betting sites, but the lines can still be worth a look.
As always, sometimes the best bet is not betting at all.
How To Bet on UFC Futures
UFC futures are betting on who will be the champion in a certain weight class/division at the end of the calendar year.
These wagers often become unavailable at sportsbooks in the second half of a calendar year. Futures are eventually reposted towards the end of the calendar year for who will be champion at the end of the next year.
Unlike for the NFL, UFC futures betting markets come and go at sportsbooks depending how the UFC schedule unfolds.
Not all sports betting sites offer UFC futures.
The best sites to wager on UFC futures are DraftKings (UFC’s official betting partner) and BetMGM. Other books, like FanDuel, don’t offer UFC futures.
What do the UFC futures betting odds mean?
They simply tell you the price you must pay for a particular outcome. Typically, everyone other than the current champion in a division will have plus-money odds. The current champion might also be plus-money, but often they are minus-money, especially if their scheduling timeline looks favorable.
What to Consider for UFC Futures
A complex web of factors can determine who receives a coveted title shot. The UFC isn’t like the NBA, NFL or MLB in that there isn’t a playoff tournament to determine the winner of a season.
When looking at the odds, it can help to consider:
- Ranking: The UFC generally stays faithful to its official rankings when awarding title shots, but many exceptions exist. Sometimes people outside the top five get shots. Some fighters hold on to their high ranking beyond their prime, creating logjams for up-and-comers.
- Win streak: At some point, a win streak is too long for the UFC to ignore. Sometimes meritocracy must be maintained to not aggravate diehard fans and MMA media. For less popular UFC fighters, securing a title shot can take a winning streak of 10 fights.
- Age: MMA fighters usually reach their prime after 30, so the UFC typically doesn’t rush 20-somethings to title shots. There are exceptions, like when it’s clear a top talent will be too large for the weight class. Conor McGregor is an example of being fast-tracked to a title shot working out spectacularly, while Darren Till is a case of that going wrong.
- Weight issues: Missing weight in the past can hurt a fighter’s chances of getting a title shot in the future. If a fighter misses weight for a title fight, they are ineligible to win the belt.
- Injury history: Unless it’s a star or long-running former champion, fighters typically don’t get a title shot after a bout of serious injury issues.
- Activity: Taking three or more fights in a year usually puts a fighter in good graces with the UFC while opening a path to a title fight sooner rather than later.
- Charisma: Fighters with large social media followings and skills on the microphone or in interviews are given more opportunities. The UFC is always looking to make new stars.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
How Do You Read UFC Odds?
Reading odds for MMA is the same as for other sports. The American odds format gives you a favorite (shown with minus odds) and an underdog (plus odds). These numbers tell you how much you can expect to profit from a successful wager, whether it be the moneyline or a prop wager.
Why Would You Bet on Negative UFC Odds?
You should bet on favorites (negative odds) as part of a potentially profitable sports wagering strategy. While you win less money on a favorite than an underdog, you won’t win in the long run betting exclusively on plus-money underdogs. The bigger the negative odds, the more that fighter is considered a favorite and the more likely they are to win.
Is Plus or Minus the UFC Underdog?
UFC underdogs will have a plus sign next to their odds. This shows you how much you’d profit on a $100 bet. You can bet less than $100, but the odds represent what you’d win with a Benjamin Franklin.
How Often Do Underdogs Win in UFC?
Betting underdogs win 30-40% of the time in the UFC. However, not all underdogs are the same, so make sure to do your research and pick your spots before backing one.
