The UFC is back in New York City for its big annual trip to Madison Square Garden. This year, it’s UFC 281 featuring a stacked lineup that starts with the prelims at 6 p.m. EST before the main card gets underway at 10 p.m. EST.
UFC 281 centers around a rivalry that goes beyond MMA. Middleweight kingpin Israel Adesanya aims to continue his dominant ways, securing a sixth consecutive title fight by scoring redemption against Alex Pereira. In kickboxing, Pereira defeated Adesanya twice and has since transitioned nicely to MMA, looking to keep the trend going opposite “The Last Stylebender.”
In this betting preview, we’ll take a look at the full five-fight main card plus one of the more notable preliminary bouts:
- Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira
- Co-Main Event: Carla Esparza vs. Zhang Weili
- Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler
- Frankie Edgar vs. Chris Gutierrez
- Dan Hooker vs. Claudio Puelles
- Prelim highlight: Brad Riddell vs. Renato “Moicano” Carneiro
Assuming you are in a legal sports betting state, UFC 281 offers some playable wagers to add to the entertainment of watching high-stakes mixed martial arts.
Let’s see what this exciting UFC 281 card has on tap for sports bettors.
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are current at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Middleweight: Adesanya vs. Pereira
- Moneyline: Adesanya (-210), Pereira (+162)
- Prediction: Adesanya by Points
- Best Bet: Adesanya by Points (+130)
Strikers in MMA simply don’t get much better than Adesanya. Pereira holding an equal, if not better, resume as a pure striker is exactly why their third clash is such an intriguing matchup.
At this stage, there’s no surprise in what Adesanya sets out to do in his title defenses. Thanks to his great understanding of the fight game and striking at its core, Adesanya fights patiently and methodically, adapting to all types of challengers. He’s never overly aggressive, allowing opponents to fall into his traps to either be finished due to their aggression or picked apart slowly over five rounds.
Pereira has the size, ability and tools to threaten Adesanya perhaps unlike any other past challenger. The familiarity also helps and there shouldn’t be any expectations or worries of grappling attacks from either. Despite Adesanya’s shortcomings in their first two kickboxing matches, he was winning much more of both fights than he wasn’t. Considering they’ve both only improved tremendously since then, there’s no reason to think that won’t remain true.
The biggest factor will be Pereira’s power and his vicious left hook. Adesanya is admittedly aware of those dangers, however, so expect him to avoid circling in that direction at all costs as he picks his shots en route to a redemptive decision.
Strawweight: Esparza vs. Zhang
- Moneyline: Esparza (+285), Zhang (-400)
- Prediction: Zhang by Submission
- Best Bet: Zhang to Win (-400)
Esparza just can’t seem to earn respect. Unfortunately for her, enough has been seen from both of these combatants at this stage to know that these odds are rather justifiable.
The path to victory for the two-time strawweight titleholder is clear every time out: wrestle. She knows what she’s best at and so do her opponents – it’s just a matter of whether or not it can be stopped.
Esparza has unsurprisingly shown some nicely timed takedowns throughout her career. She’s also shot from questionable distances, however, leaving her susceptible to damage and bad positions, only to be bailed out by her opponent’s fear of her hanging on to a limb for dear life.
Zhang will make “Cookie Monster” pay for any sloppy attempts as the striking disparity in this matchup is nearly as large as Esparza’s first initial title defense attempt against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in early 2015. Elbows, knees, kicks – you name it, Esparza will be dealt it after failed shots to be hurt before Zhang takes the advantageous position on the ground. From there, she’ll lock in a submission – armbar or triangle choke – similar to her Jessica Aguilar victory.
Esparza will need to utilize well-timed takedowns on any Zhang striking bursts to have a shot, weathering the early storm to take things into deep water. -400 might not be the sexiest moneyline for the best bet, but in this case, a Zhang finish is just too enticing and likely.
Lightweight: Poirier vs. Chandler
- Moneyline: Poirier (-230), Chandler (+176)
- Prediction: Poirier by KO/TKO
- Best Bet: Poirier by KO/TKO (+135)
Most would agree this fight deserves five rounds and there will be no denying that here. However, the question must be asked as to whether or not the fight will make it to the 15-minute mark.
Chandler has proven to be one of the most explosive lightweight fighters in the sport’s history. A three-time Bellator champion, Chandler has seen his career take off since his successful UFC debut in Jan. 2021.
The problem for Chandler in this matchup essentially boils down to him being more wartorn than Poirier. “Iron” will need to land his big shot before Poirier, otherwise any wild exchange will lead to him getting decimated by those ever-lethal “Diamond” hook combinations.
Defensively sound as any on the feet, Poirier doesn’t generally let clean shots slip through his guard. Chandler’s blend of speed, precision and power is what he’ll need to lean on to sneak the right punches in before Poirier sees them coming. Ideally, Chandler mixes things up and makes Poirier think with some takedown attempts. Even if he doesn’t get them, that opens him up to the potential knockout blow.
Chandler just hasn’t been that guy in the UFC, however. His last times heavily leaning on his wrestling came against Brent Primus and Goiti Yamauchi in Bellator, seeing him pick up unanimous decision wins. The moments have seemingly got to Chandler at this point, resulting in him going 2-2 thus far. With Poirier sharp as always and eager to rebound after his previous loss, everything lines up for a quick (but fun) fight in favor of Louisiana’s finest.
Bantamweight: Edgar vs. Gutierrez
- Moneyline: Edgar (+186), Gutierrez (-245)
- Prediction: Gutierrez by KO/TKO
- Best Bet: Gutierrez by KO/TKO (+195)
Edgar’s last MMA fight just couldn’t be a fun one.
The living legend is a shell of his former durable self at 41 years old. Last fighting an entire year ago in the same venue, Edgar performed significantly better than many expected him to against Marlon “Chito” Vera. He appeared to be on his way to a solid victory, but his chin ultimately failed him when sustaining a nasty front kick late in the third.
One of Edgar’s greatest career attributes was his chin and in this final stretch of his career, it’s failed him in four of his seven outings.
Gutierrez has been on an absolute roll since dropping his UFC debut in Nov. 2018. The Factory X product is arguably the best leg kicker at 135 pounds now that the likes of Jose Aldo and Marlon Moraes are out of the picture. Even when they were around, they hadn’t scored a leg kick TKO as recently as Gutierrez.
Edgar will be getting chopped at with any given opportunity and as long as this fight stays standing, he’ll be trying to avoid a mixed back of power strikes Gutierrez throws from all angles. The leg kicks will be key to halting Edgar’s generally great movement and boxing patterns, and in turn, setting up punch combinations.
“The Answer” can get this fight to the ground if he so pleases, but Gutierrez will make him work for it and like Esparza versus Zhang, he’ll have pain sent his way for his efforts. This is a changing of the guard bout and there are just no two ways about it.
Lightweight: Hooker vs. Puelles
- Moneyline: Hooker (-172), Puelles (+134)
- Prediction: Hooker by KO/TKO
- Best Bet: Hooker by Points (+220)
Call it a hunch, but this feels like “the one” for good old Hooker.
Like the aforementioned Gutierrez, Puelles has looked sensational since his UFC debut. His last win – a kneebar submission of Clay Guida – was his biggest yet and showed that there’s something to the 26-year-old Peruvian. Despite that, Hooker is still a good bit fresher than Guida and presents some more unique challenges at this juncture.
The bout acts as Hooker’s return to 155 pounds after the tough featherweight retry against Arnold Allen earlier this year. He’s always been at his best at lightweight and considering his usual opposition, Puelles is a large step down.
When he finds his rhythm and utilizes his great length, Hooker can be a truly dangerous out for anyone – just ask Dustin Poirier. Since that fight, Hooker has also shown improvements in his wrestling game that he’ll surely mix into this fight.
The Hooker by striking finish prediction is mostly just optimism that he’ll show up reinvigorated in vintage form. Therefore, our best bet is on Hooker by decision as he’ll outsmart Puelles strategically and use his overall experience to show the youngster he’s still got some gas left in the tank at lightweight.
Prelim: Lightweight: Riddell vs. Moicano
- Moneyline: Riddell (-104), Moicano (-122)
- Prediction: Riddell by Points
- Best Bet: Fight Goes the Distance (+118)
Just win, baby. Riddell and Moicano will look to do exactly that by any means necessary following their recent showings.
Riddell’s strong momentum came to a screeching halt at the hands of Rafael Fiziev before his most recent appearance against Jailin Turner this past July. Meanwhile, Moicano acted as a short-notice sacrificial lamb to Rafael dos Anjos in March.
It has been rare for Moicano to see the judges’ scorecards, whether by win or loss. In this matchup with Riddell, the New Zealander should be able to bully the former featherweight in most areas the action goes. On the feet, both are capable of landing powerful punches to put away opponents. Simply because of the nature of the bout, the combination of wrestling for Riddell, and jiu-jitsu for Moicano, this battle should provide a versatile blend of closely contested action.
That’s not to say that they’ll play it safe in this one, because they historically aren’t those types of fighters. But a win is big here and both are smart enough to recognize that, leading to a win by decision for Riddell.
