UFC Vegas 69 had two late swaps in the main events, but the headlining fight is still must-see TV. Unfortunately, the overall card looks to be one of the more forgettable in recent memory, kicking off at 4 p.m. ET on Saturday before the main card at 7 p.m. ET.
The new main event of UFC Vegas 69 is a pivotal fight in the flyweight division. Former UFC strawweight champion Jessica Andrade steps in for Taila Santos to save the day against Erin Blanchfield. Stakes don’t get much higher than this fight for the rising star in Blanchfield, and the stylistic clash is as good as it gets.
In this betting preview, we’ll take a look at the full five-fight main card, plus one of the more notable preliminary bouts:
- Main Event: Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield
- Co-Main Event: Jordan Wright vs. Zac Pauga
- Josh Parisian vs. Jamal Pogues
- William Knight vs. Marcin Prachnio
- Jim Miller vs. Alex Hernandez
- Prelim highlight: Lina Lansberg vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
Assuming you are in a legal sports betting state, UFC Vegas 69 offers some playable wagers to add to the entertainment of watching high-stakes mixed martial arts.
Let’s see what UFC Vegas 69 has on tap for sports bettors.
Note: Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are subject to change.
Flyweight: Andrade vs. Blanchfield
- Moneyline: Andrade (-174), Blanchfield (+136)
- Prediction: Blanchfield by Submission
- Best Bet: Andrade to Win (-174)
After winning the Eddie Bravo Invitational and becoming a BJJ black belt at 19, Blanchfield entered MMA and quickly became the best prospect in the sport. In 2023, she’s shed that label and became a legitimate contender.
Standing in her way will be the human highlight reel, Andrade. “Bate Estaca” turns around relatively quickly after a January hometown trouncing of one-time title challenger Lauren Murphy. Like it was with Santos, this is the closest and best opportunity Blanchfield could get before fighting in a title fight. Win or lose, her stock won’t be dropping in this one.
Blanchfield’s strong point has been evident throughout her career. She’s one of the best and most relenting grapplers in the division. Her striking continues to catch up as she finds comfort on her feet, but it’s never a secret where she does her best work, and that will be no different versus Andrade.
Andrade has proven to be one of the strongest female fighters the sport has ever seen, regardless of weight class. Once an unrelenting tank with her pressuring onslaughts, Andrade has gotten slightly more methodical with age and experience. Her heavy leg kick attacks against Murphy came as a pleasant surprise to throw off her opponent.
While Andrade enjoys a good brawl and haymaker exchange, she’s also capable in the grappling department. Blanchfield won’t be shy to put their grappling abilities to the test. The additional two rounds make this fight more compelling and should help Blanchfield, although it’s her first time with the extra time. Andrade will be more of a threat to finish early as opposed to Santos, but even if she gets pummeled in the opening rounds, the New Jersey native won’t go away or slow down.
Expect early success from Andrade as Blanchfield is forced to figure out the puzzle, taking damage in the process. Eventually, Blanchfield will find her moment in a scramble to take advantage late, capitalizing with a submission. The sky has always been the limit for Blanchfield, and anyone who’s watched her entire career has known that. Now it’s time for her to shine the brightest.
Light Heavyweight: Wright vs. Pauga
- Moneyline: Wright (+240), Pauga (-330)
- Prediction: Pauga by KO/TKO
- Best Bet: Pauga to Win (-330)
With the main event out of the way, there’s not much to like about UFC Vegas 69, and this bout order is as illogical as any has ever been.
Both Wright and Pauga are coming off brutal losses in their last outings. This will undeniably be a make-or-break spot for Wright after losing three in a row and going 1-4 in his last five. Wright’s chin has already been susceptible to the heavy hitters at 185 pounds. He’s going up in weight for this one, whereas Pauga drops down from a heavyweight stint on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF).
Pauga hasn’t been a finisher in his six-fight career, but his size advantage alone should be all he needs to put Wright away after landing cleanly within the first two rounds.
Heavyweight: Parisian vs. Pogues
- Moneyline: Parisian (+186), Pogues (-245)
- Prediction: Pogues by Points
- Best Bet: Pogues to Win (-245)
The best bet when dealing with unranked heavyweights is not to bet at all. In this case, you’d be gambling on a possible parlay addition, but we still recommend avoiding that.
Parisian has been the great alternator at heavyweight since winning his 2020 Contender Series bout. He’s currently in the pattern of winning one and then losing one in his last five, so the timing could align perfectly here for Pogues, who is fresh off a win in the last season of Contender Series.
Pogues has youth and solid experience after competing in Bellator and LFA. The LA-born competitor likes his high kicks and is relatively comfortable wherever the fight goes. He’ll keep Parisian off him to pick away at the TUF 28 alum, scoring a decision win.
Light Heavyweight: Knight vs. Prachnio
- Moneyline: Knight (-113), Prachnio (-113)
- Prediction: Knight by Points
- Best Bet: Knight to Win (-113)
This is a weird one. Knight and Prachnio have both shown flashes of brilliance, but they’ve been unable to maintain those flashes consistently.
Knight is a fire hydrant of a man at 205 pounds and packs serious strength and power, but he has lacked highlight-reel knockouts since joining the UFC. Prachnio, on the other hand, snapped a dreadful three-fight skid recently, outpointing an equally inconsistent Khalil Rountree Jr. From there, Prachnio body-kicked Ike Villanueva for a TKO before falling short against Philipe Lins, who is also on this card.
Knight is as explosive and overwhelming when blitzing as one might imagine for a light heavyweight. Aside from the precarious position he was caught in versus Devin Clark, he’s been durable and able to survive big shots. Prachnio will need to work the body similarly to how he did against Villanueva to slow Knight down. Looking at his track record, it’s too hard not to lean towards Knight crumbling Prachnio somewhere in the middle of the fight.
Lightweight: Miller vs. Hernandez
- Moneyline: Miller (+186), Hernandez (-245)
- Prediction: Miller by Submission
- Best Bet: Miller to Win (+186)
This wasn’t the original matchup made for Miller, but it’s still mind-blowing that he isn’t the co-main event of UFC Vegas 69.
UFC’s record holder for most fights and wins is still going strong, riding a three-fight winning streak of all finishes. Miller may no longer be a top lightweight at 39 years old, but he’s proven to be still serviceable and dangerous.
Hernandez enters the bout on short notice after recently dropping to featherweight in a losing effort to Billy Quarantillo. It’s been tough sledding for Hernandez since his big debut win over Beneil Dariush in 2018. “The Great Ape” may have his back against the wall in this one.
Miller will be forced to weather a typical early storm from Hernandez, causing the latter to fade. Miller never tires and always seeks his finish, whether on the ground or his feet. If Hernandez can’t put the veteran away, he’ll get beat on until taken down and submitted.
This is a risky one to drop a wager on, depending on how you feel about short-notice fights, but for Miller, nothing ever changes. A fight is genuinely just a fight.
Prelim: Bantamweight: Lansberg vs. Bueno Silva
- Moneyline: Lansberg (+310), Bueno Silva (-440)
- Prediction: Bueno Silva by Submission
- Best Bet: Bueno Silva to Win (-440)
Admittedly, there’s not much to choose from here.
We’re highlighting this fight not because it will be a good fight but because it should be a good performance from Bueno Silva in a division that desperately needs new life. The Brazilian has injected a bit of that since moving up from flyweight, winning two in a row, with her last coming via an armbar of Stephanie Egger.
At this point, Lansberg is just hanging onto her roster spot for dear life. The 40-year-old Swede has nothing left to offer up aside from toughness. Lansberg is at her best when getting on top of opponents and beating them up. That won’t help against Bueno Silva, who is well-versed in BJJ and able to hit submissions like the Egger armbar off her back. Bueno Silva is too dangerous and should shine brightly in this one, spelling a fourth straight (and likely final) UFC loss for Lansberg.
