There is no offseason for the Ultimate Fighting Championship. The world’s premier mixed martial arts promotion has become a near-weekly provider of fisticuffs, allowing fans to wager on moneylines and props.
Extended play throughout the year is also an option depending on how confident a gambler feels.
That’s where UFC futures come in. Think of team sports like basketball or football. Before or during a season, the option is there to lay some cash on a team to win the title. In the case of the UFC, whoever is the champion by the end of the year would be the equivalent wager.
Dropping a bet on futures leaves your money in limbo for the whole year, making it a more significant investment in terms of duration. That’s why we recommend narrowing down the choices.
This betting guide will look at the UFC’s heavyweight division.
Considerations for UFC Heavyweight Title
UFC title fight matchmaking can be all over the place. There have been several instances throughout UFC history where fighters challenge for the title coming off losses, making things even trickier for gamblers.
When looking at the list of odds, it can help to consider the following:
- Ranking: The UFC has a ranking system for a reason, which helps indicate what title bouts may be on the horizon. Activity levels and fighter popularity can create a stir, leading to someone less deserving than the more expected choices.
- Win streak: Eight used to be the magic number for a winning streak in the UFC to guarantee a title shot. That’s changed recently, but if fighters don’t lose, they’ll eventually have to fight for the title. Otherwise, virtual riots can be expected.
- Weight: At heavyweight, there is a range of a whopping 60 pounds that fighters can weigh. History has shown it doesn’t always help to be the biggest of the bunch, but it’s hard not to overlook it if talent accompanies sheer size. Only twice in UFC history has anyone ever missed weight at heavyweight, so that’s no genuine concern amongst the best the division offers.
- Injuries: No one is ever 100 percent healthy going into a fight, so they’re not going to be 100 percent coming out of one. Depending on how prone to injury a fighter has been, placing faith in them could be problematic no matter how deserving they end up being of a crack at gold.
- Fight frequency: This goes hand-in-hand with injury potential. The UFC has always been favorable to athletes willing to get in the octagon as often as possible.
- Charisma: If you generate pay-per-view numbers and buzz on social media, you will be rewarded more than others.
UFC Heavyweight Division Odds
Heavyweight is undeniably the most unpredictable division in the sport because every fighter has knockout power. No champion has defended the title more than three times, which tells you how herculean of an effort is needed to stay atop the land of giants.
Who will be the baddest man on the planet heading into 2024? Let’s take a look at the prices.
Note: All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook are current at the time of publication.
Jon Jones (+150): The greatest light heavyweight of all time and arguably the greatest pound-for-pound fighter ever has teased a heavyweight debut since 2013. One decade later, it’s officially set to happen.
Jones last fought in February 2020, picking up a controversial unanimous decision win over Dominick Reyes, where he looked more human than ever. This came after previous victories that left fans feeling maybe “Bones” was finally losing a step despite still coming out on top. Jones, however, felt the opposite and decided he had done it all at 205 pounds and vacated the title. Jones’ intentions were a Ngannou megafight, stalled because of contract negotiations that inevitably fell through.
Jones also wanted his payday and got it because, at his best, he’s one of the best of all time.
However, there are many uncertainties in such a different and unique weight class. Jones has always been the bigger man throughout his career, and despite taking these past three years to pack on weight, he’s now 35 and has been bouncing around gyms after personal issues led to his removal from his longtime home at JacksonWink MMA.
Jones will be welcomed to heavyweight by Ciryl Gane at UFC 285 on March 4 in a vacant title bout. If he proves he can win against one of the division’s very best, he should be able to carry that momentum into 2024.
Cyril Gane (+150): Gane becoming an undisputed champion at some point in his career is about as safe of a bet as can be made. At +150 for 2023, those are playable odds with his return to a title bout coming in a matter of months.
Francis Ngannou’s injury may have been a reason for Gane’s early success in the Frenchman’s first career title fight. Regardless, Gane is undeniably the most unique, technical and mobile striker the division has. His combinations are sharp and powerful, and he rarely gets caught with big shots. Gane gives everyone in the division fits with his striking alone, and if he continues to tighten his takedown defense, which cost him against Ngannou, he’ll remain a constant for years to come.
Stipe Miocic (+400): The UFC heavyweight legend is practically semi-retired, and there have been no signs of interest regarding a return until Jones vs. Gane materialized. UFC President Dana White consistently indicated that if Ngannou vs. Jones didn’t materialize, Miocic vs. Jones was the likely backup choice. So, like with Jones, it’s nearly guaranteed a Miocic return will be for the title if he fights.
While someone like Jones or Gane is a winnable fight for Miocic, he’s 40 now and hasn’t fought since a March 2021 knockout loss to Ngannou. Should he win and become a champion again, it’s possible he officially retires before the year ends. Stay away from this one.
Serghei Pavlovich (+550): Pavlovich has essentially been the second coming of Ngannou. A heavyweight with that next-level freakish power. The Russian has been so devastating since his only career loss in his UFC debut against Alistair Overeem in 2018 that no matter who he faces, one punch could do the trick.
The problem with Pavlovich is that he needs to have more personality. However, that matters less at heavyweight when you’re knocking people out the way he is. Still, be cautious about his title opportunity chances this year.
Curtis Blaydes (+1400): Blaydes has been the divisional dark horse for years. Outside of the random Derrick Lewis knockout, Ngannou has been Blaydes’ kryptonite. Also holding the strong wrestler back is his relative lack of personality or interest from fans. Blaydes has all the talent to be a champion and is a tough matchup for Jones and Gane. It’s difficult to see him getting a chance at fighting those guys, but Ngannou out of the picture is a big help.
Blaydes could have a great 2023, but the timing for him finally becoming champion feels more likely for early 2024 than anything else.
Tom Aspinall (+1600): Gane and Aspinall are the future of heavyweight, and it’s not hard to see that. The Brit’s 2023 return will see him enter off the heels of a torn ACL, which always takes longer to return from.
Aspinall can become a champion someday, but it won’t be in 2023 due to the time he’s lost. He must make up for his layoff before getting a title shot.
Tai Tuivasa (+5000): Similar to Aspinall, Tuivasa has some making up to do, but not because he lost time – he just lost. Tuivasa made an admirable effort against Gane in Paris before getting steamrolled by Pavlovich. The Aussie’s epic chin might not be dusted yet. It just isn’t looking good after the damage taken in these previous two fights.
“Bam Bam” likely gets a step down for his next time out, and that alone won’t be enough to help him get a title shot. A three-fight win streak at minimum is a requirement for Tuivasa after this skid. Despite being one of the most popular fighters at heavyweight, he couldn’t get a title shot after five straight knockouts.
Alexander Volkov (+5000): Volkov, 34, has appeared to enter gatekeeper status, and he’s a damn good one. He’s beating who he’s supposed to beat and losing to the new blood like Gane and Aspinall. We’ve seen the ceiling on Volkov. He’s a fun guy to watch and has an incredible back tattoo, but again, there’s not much personality to go along with him. Considering everything else around him, there’s no real value here whatsoever.
Jailton Almeida (+6500): This is where things get interesting. Almeida is one of the best-untapped talents in the division. His most significant issue in recent months has been keeping his fights intact, which hasn’t been his fault.
Almeida’s rise will solely hinge on matchups and activity. If he fights frequently and beats good names impressively, he can reach the top much quicker than he probably should. This one is a bit like Blaydes, though. Better chances next year.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+7500): Rozenstruik is in the same boat as Volkov, but a notch below, considering he just lost to him. Unless he drastically revamps his game, Suriname’s finest shouldn’t be considered among this list’s options.
Serghei Spivac (+7500): Is there value on “The Polar Bear” at +7500? More than anything, he’s a sleeper because of his recent showings highlighting strong game planning and fight IQ. Unfortunately, like Almeida, fight cancellations hurt him significantly.
Had Spivac fought and defeated Lewis as expected at the end of 2022, he’d be right in the thick of big-fight possibilities out the 2023 gate. The matchup has been rebooked, and that’s how he’ll start 2023. Spivac’s progression and the title track were stalled, making his chances of getting a title shot this year slim to none, no matter how well he does.
Alexandr Romanov (+10000): Even though the vast majority believe Romanov was robbed of a draw against Marcin Tybura in 2022, it was a setback for the previously unbeaten Moldovan.
Romanov has a unique slam-and-toss-you-around style that is always fun to watch. Perhaps not the prettiest at times. He’s another one like Almeida with some real promise. Ultimately, the Tybura loss ended all his hopes of making 2023 a contender year.
Derrick Lewis (+10000): There may not be a fighter that has ever better personified “puncher’s chance” than Lewis. Sadly, with a continually fading chin and lack of overall development, “The Black Beast” sits alongside Volkov and Rozenstruik but rightfully notches below both.
Francis Ngannou (+10000): At his best, Ngannou looks unstoppable. “The Predator” possesses statistically the hardest punch ever recorded. He has the world record to prove it.
Ngannou has managed to sleep his opponents first before ever getting KO’d in his career. Newfound wrestling abilities were displayed in his last bout, but along with it came a knee injury sidelining him for all of 2022. The most significant question mark around Ngannou entering 2023 had nothing to do with his capabilities in the octagon. If he fights and is healthy, there’s no reason to believe he wouldn’t be champion.
Ngannou’s stance on getting what he rightfully deserves financially and in terms of fighting freedom ultimately cost him his roster spot. Ngannou wanted a new contract that rewarded him millions to fight, unlike his previous $600,000 purse for defeating Gane. Additionally, the champion wanted a new deal to allow him to compete in boxing. Instead, the UFC let him walk, and he’s now a free agent, likely crossing over into another sport before we see him in MMA again.
The UFC has historically been extremely particular about its contract exclusivity. If you aren’t Conor McGregor, there’s a 99-percent chance you aren’t going to get such luxuries. It’s certainly possible that Ngannou will re-sign with the UFC in the future. At this juncture, it’s unlikely to be in 2023 or in time for him to recapture the title he never lost.
Conclusion
Heavyweight had never been weirder and more challenging to predict than it was before the Ngannou situation was settled.
When it comes to your safest choice, that’s Gane. At +150, he’s the experienced heavyweight whose lone successor just parted ways with the promotion. He’s constantly in the title discussion after becoming an interim champion and due to his performance against Ngannou. Styling on Tuivasa in an entertaining fight only helped him stay on everyone’s minds, and he taps into a new French market for the promotion.
Depending on how things play out against Jones will be huge for France’s finest. Gane could theoretically rematch Jones if a loss was close or controversial, presumably later in the year. Pavlovich is a fun risk to play. Ultimately, Gane is the most comfortable option, no matter what happens in the division. There are too many questions about Jones’ fighting capabilities in this new dangerous landscape.
