The UFC is back on the road for the final time for a 2022 Fight Night event. UFC Orlando goes down this Saturday night at the typical pay-per-view hours, starting with prelim action at 7 p.m. EST followed by the main card at 10 p.m. EST.
Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson (16-6-1) is set to compete for his first and only appearance this year when colliding with Kevin Holland (23-8, 1 NC). The welterweight fan favorites will be energized after an overall thrilling lineup of bouts in the Sunshine State.
In this betting preview, we’ll take a look at the full six-fight main card plus one of the more notable preliminary bouts:
- Main Event: Kevin Holland vs. Stephen Thompson
- Co-Main Event: Bryan Barberena vs. Rafael dos Anjos
- Matheus Nicolau vs. Matt Schnell
- Tai Tuivasa vs. Sergei Pavlovich
- Jack Hermansson vs. Roman Dolidze
- Eryk Anders vs. Kyle Daukaus
- Prelim highlight: Angela Hill vs. Emily Ducote
Assuming you are in a legal sports betting state, UFC Orlando offers some playable wagers to add to the entertainment of watching high-stakes mixed martial arts.
Let’s see what this exciting UFC Orlando card has on tap for sports bettors.
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are current at the time of writing and subject to change.
Welterweight: Holland vs. Thompson
- Moneyline: Holland (-156), Thompson (+122)
- Prediction: Thompson by points
- Best Bet: Thompson by points (+390)
Thompson enters his eighth UFC main event with intentions of snapping a two-fight skid. For Holland, he too looks to get back in the win column with his first UFC headliner victory after two prior attempts.
In each fighter’s last outing, they found themselves on the receiving end of strong grappling games from superior opponents in that department. If anyone has an edge on the ground in this matchup, it would be the BJJ black belt Holland. Thompson’s takedown defense has been a key to his success over the years, allowing him to keep fights on the feet to land his versatile karate techniques.
In his last two fights, Thompson offered next to nothing for Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad. However, those are two of the best fighters at welterweight, and Holland himself would struggle against them. It’s incredibly easy to forget about Thompson’s sensational showing against Geoff Neal directly before his tough matchups against Burns and Muhammad.
Throughout his career, “Wonderboy” has always been one of the trickier puzzles to deal with on the feet. Despite now being 39, styles make fights, and Thompson’s distance management remains second to none against most willing to engage in striking affairs with him. Holland has specifically worked on his wrestling in recent years, but it won’t be enough to give Thompson problems.
Welterweight: Barberena vs. dos Anjos
- Moneyline: Barberena (+400), dos Anjos (-620)
- Prediction: dos Anjos by points
- Best Bet: dos Anjos by points (-125)
Barberena is just one of those terminator-like fighters that fans have trouble rooting against. “Bam Bam” is never out of a fight, but he’ll need to find a way to fend off dos Anjos’ historically strong pressure game to have a chance in this one.
Defeating Robbie Lawler was huge for Barberena in his last fight. The Montclair, Calif. native wilted the former welterweight champion with his persistent flurries and aggressive nature. Unfortunately, against dos Anjos, trying to fight fire with fire will lead to getting taken down by the well-rounded one-time UFC lightweight kingpin.
Dos Anjos, like Lawler, is also on the backend of his career but has remained consistent with his grappling and ability to chain takedowns off his combinations. It isn’t often that “RDA” loses the pressure battle unless his opponent has the wrestling game to match. In this case, he should be able to show off his overall skillset in vintage fashion.
Flyweight: Nicolau vs. Schnell
- Moneyline: Nicolau (-400), Schnell (+285)
- Prediction: Schnell by submission
- Best Bet: Schnell by submission (+1000)
Even though Nicolau should probably have a loss to Manel Kape directly in the middle of his current stretch, he’s on quite a solid run.
Everything the Brazilian does is just clean. Nicolau leaves little room for error, which makes him a rightful favorite for the often fire-friendly Schnell. There’s just something about the momentum difference with “Danger” right now.
Schnell’s last win over Su Madaerji was one of the most absurd fights ever. The number of times the man was hurt only to remain in the fight and put his foe away speaks volumes about what will need to be done to him in Orlando.
Between the two, Nicolau just isn’t much of a finisher, and his two career losses came via strikes. When Schnell finds his shots, they’ll do damage and eventually stun Nicolau, leading to a patented Schnell sequence that results in a wild submission win. It will be a nail-biter for bettors as Nicolau should take an early lead, but the numbers on a Schnell finish are almost too good to be true.
Heavyweight: Tuivasa vs. Pavlovich
- Moneyline: Tuivasa (+180), Pavlovich (-235)
- Prediction: Tuivasa by KO/TKO
- Best Bet: Tuivasa by first-round KO/TKO (+470)
It’s quite a shock that this fight isn’t the co-main event. Then again, these are ranked heavyweights instead of the usual precursor unranked fellows.
Tuivasa vs. Pavlovich will not go to the judges’ scorecards. Forget about it. With some fights, it just couldn’t be any more obvious.
Pavlovich is coming into his own with four straight wins, most recently taking out Derrick Lewis in under a minute. The stoppage may have been arguable, but the Russian smasher packs incredible power and has finished all but three of his 16 career wins.
The moneyline for this fight couldn’t be more of a slap in the face of Tuivasa. Despite his great streak ending against Ciryl Gane in September, Tuivasa did much better than oddsmakers seemingly remember. “Bam Bam” — yes, there are two at UFC Orlando — had Gane in trouble at one point, knocking him down only to show off his otherworldly chin before the Frenchman rallied to close the show.
No other heavyweight is on the level of Gane regarding technical striking. This is a tailormade heavyweight knockout artist slugfest, and those are exactly what Tuivasa personifies.
Middleweight: Hermansson vs. Dolidze
- Moneyline: Hermansson (-205), Dolidze (+158)
- Prediction: Dolidze by KO/TKO
- Best Bet: Dolidze by KO/TKO (+460)
Hermansson has once again been dealt a short-notice opponent.
“The Joker” put on a good showing against Chris Curtis in his July outing, but one that underwhelmed the fans in London. Surely, Hermansson will look to make up for that this weekend, but it will be no easy task against a red-hot Dolidze.
Two nasty Performance of the Night knockouts carry Dolidze into this fight, and he’s truly starting to come into his own. The Georgian doesn’t need much with his well-timed punches and knees in tight. A solid grappler in his own right, Hermansson should look to lean on his wrestling to avoid the damage Dolidze will inflict.
On paper, everything points to Dolidze continuing to climb as Hermansson has alternated wins and losses in his last six fights.
Middleweight: Anders vs. Daukaus
- Moneyline: Anders (+172), Daukaus (-225)
- Prediction: Daukaus by points
- Best Bet: Daukaus by points (+150)
From speaking about Dolidze, it’s onto one of the victims of his previous two knockouts in Daukaus.
The younger Daukaus brother showed real promise before running into Dolidze’s knees and fists. It was a quick loss that shouldn’t lead him to be entirely written off just yet, especially considering he’s facing a veteran Anders.
Experience and level of competition certainly favor Anders in this equation, but the former American football player has more time inside the octagon. Anders will need to bully Daukaus, but in doing so, he can open opportunities for Daukaus to latch on to his signature brabo choke.
Prelim: Strawweight: Hill vs. Ducote
- Moneyline: Hill (+100), Ducote (-128)
- Prediction: Ducote by points
- Best Bet: Ducote by points (+140)
UFC Orlando gives fans two glimpses at the future of the strawweight division with Yazmin Jauregui in the card’s opener before closing the prelims with Hill vs. Ducote.
Ducote went through early adversity as a Bellator flyweight before truly finding her footing at 115 pounds once joining Invicta FC. The former Invicta titleholder has developed a championship resolve and fight IQ that are rare amongst most contenders.
Her patient and methodical approach allow her to counter perfectly with her punches over the top after chipping away with low-leg kicks. Hill is often more mobile than most and provides plenty of volume, which will require Ducote to follow and keep up with the pace a bit, but it will only lead to her landing damage at a higher rate.
