Two of MMA’s greatest fighters of all time are stepping back into the octagon on Saturday night.
UFC 285 in Las Vegas looks to be an action-packed event, starting with the prelim bouts at 8:00 p.m. ET before the main card at 10 p.m. ET.
Jon Jones is back. The light heavyweight division’s consensus No. 1 ends a three-year absence after one final title defense over Dominick Reyes in February 2020. “Bones” is now taking his talents to the land of giants as a heavyweight for the first time.
France’s Ciryl Gane will welcome the legend in a vacant title affair. Directly before the massive matchup, reigning flyweight queen Valentina Shevchenko aims to successfully defend her title for a record-extending eighth time against challenger Alexa Grasso.
In this betting preview, we’ll take a look at the full five-fight main card plus one of the more notable preliminary bouts:
- Main Event: Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane
- Co-Main Event: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso
- Geoff Neal vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov
- Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner
- Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett
- Prelim highlight: Viviane Araujo vs. Amanda Ribas
Assuming you are in a legal sports betting state, UFC 285 offers some playable wagers to add to the entertainment of watching high-stakes mixed martial arts.
Let’s see what UFC 285 has on tap for sports bettors.
Note: Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are subject to change.
Heavyweight: Jones vs. Gane
- Moneyline: Jones -166, Gane +130
- Prediction: Gane by KO/TKO
- Best Bet: Gane by KO/TKO (+500)
It’s time to get all of our Jones questions answered.
Jones isn’t going to be the first all-time great to make a return after a long layoff in a different division. Georges St-Pierre notably did the same thing in 2017 after four years out of the game to capture middleweight gold after previously crafting his legacy at welterweight. In other cases, Dominick Cruz came back after four catastrophic lower-body injuries in four years to reclaim his bantamweight title.
St-Pierre was a bit on the older side against an also older opponent champion, Michael Bisping, while Cruz was still relatively young at 30. For Jones, however, he’s now 35 and facing a top contender with significantly less wear and tear, plus a much larger divisional gap.
On top of these factors, Jones arguably could have lost two of his last three bouts, which went to decisions at light heavyweight. No matter how you felt about his performances, they undeniably weren’t the best versions of Jones that led him to his legendary status.
Everything essentially hinges on Jones in this matchup. If he can channel the iconic fighter that fans grew accustomed to seeing during the 2010s, it’s his fight to lose. It won’t be as easy as he made it look in some of his best wins, but he has the clear advantage as one of the most well-rounded and smartest fighters there’s ever been.
Gane is a true heavyweight and a uniquely talented striker who attacks in heavy combinations with the mobility of a middleweight. He may not be as versatile as Jones in terms of striking weapons, but he won’t need to be, thanks to his sharp fundamentals and equally smart approaches to striking exchanges. Despite some of his comments in the buildup to the fight, Gane has indeed been continually improving his wrestling defense, which is pivotal against Jones.
The wrestling difference has been a big talking point and a fair factor to highlight. At the same time, part of the reason Jones’ legend became so historic was that he’d fight and beat his opponents at their own game. So, even though he’s talked about wrestling Gane, it’s hard to believe that is the primary focus.
Ultimately, all fights start standing, and Jones will strike with Gane and be forced to do so early on. “Bones” has never felt the power from natural heavyweights, and one as evasive as Gane should be able to touch him up in most moments, eventually tiring out and finishing the newly heavier and older legend.
Flyweight: Shevchenko vs. Grasso
- Moneyline: Shevchenko -720, Grasso +450
- Prediction: Shevchenko by Decision
- Best Bet: Shevchenko by Points (+200)
On her best day, Mexico’s Grasso is championship-caliber.
Grasso has already had a long and memorable career despite still being just 29 years old. A former strawweight, the Guadalajara, Mexico native has come into her own as a flyweight. Her consistently sharp and buttery smooth boxing abilities are only improving with each fight, and her grappling is tightening up offensively and defensively.
Similar to Jones, Shevchenko does absolutely everything great. She’s one of MMA’s true perfectionists when it comes to technique and approach. A counter-striker of the highest order, Shevchenko will make Grasso pay if the Mexican attacks with her typical voluminous boxing. After seeing the recent grappling success that Jennifer Maia and Taila Santos had against Shevchenko, Grasso will be best off mixing in takedown threats or at least feints along with her boxing to pin Shevchenko to the cage or get her down.
Assuming Grasso comes in on point and not trying to mindlessly outwork the champion, she can make things ultra-competitive. In the end, she just doesn’t pack enough power to likely overwhelm or bother Shevchenko, and submission threats will be hard to find. The champion will keep on keeping on in this one, so it’s just a matter of how one-sided it looks (if at all).
Welterweight: Neal vs. Rakhmonov
- Moneyline: Neal +390, Rakhmonov -590
- Prediction: Rakhmonov by Submission
- Best Bet: Rakhmonov by Submission (+170)
Rakhmonov is the truth, and he’ll continue to prove that this weekend.
One of Kazakhstan’s finest, the 16-0 Rakhmonov has finished everyone put in his way and can do so in any method needed. Neal has been resurgent since his Stephen Thompson loss and can take down any foe. In this matchup, however, he’ll simply be outgunned as Rakhmonov has more lethal tools to play with in his arsenal.
Rakhmonov will utilize his range to bother and frustrate Neal, either hurting him or deciding to switch things up and take him down. From there, Rakhmonov will continue to show his impressive top control, finding an eventual submission as he did against Neil Magny.
Lightweight: Gamrot vs. Turner
- Moneyline: Gamrot -225, Turner +172
- Prediction: Gamrot by Submission
- Best Bet: Gamrot by Submission (+250)
Turner went from one of the more favorable top-15 matchups he could get to one of the hardest.
The “Tarantula” was originally matched with Dan Hooker before a broken hand removed the Australian fan favorite from the bout, opening the door for the former KSW champion Gamrot.
Turner is physically one of the most impressive lightweights on the roster at present and has the killer instinct to concern many. Once hurt, he jumps on you, and if a choke is available, it’s more often than not a wrap.
Going back to Shevchenko and Jones, Gamrot is somewhat in a similar category when it comes to just how polished he is in every area. Obviously not to the same degree as the legends, every action Gamrot performs is supported by his seriously unassuming strength. The technique displayed in some of his scrambles against Beneil Dariush and Arman Tsarukyan was breathtaking. It doesn’t matter how large or skilled an opponent is; Gamrot can match him, if not outperform him.
“The Gamer” has more than serviceable kickboxing as well and will offer up too much for Turner to think about. He’ll get Turner to the mat on multiple occasions but might only need one as he can be sneakily quick on violent submissions, such as his 65-second kimura on Jeremy Stephens.
Middleweight: Nickal vs. Pickett
- Moneyline: Nickal -2200, Pickett +870
- Prediction: Nickal by Submission
- Best Bet: Nickal by First-Round Submission (-105)
Nickal is the next generation of middleweights.
There’s still plenty left to learn about the unbeaten 3-0 wrestling superstar, but what has already been shown is astoundingly impressive. Nickal chains together his punches and takedowns, plus he submission transitions far better than anyone at this stage in their career.
It’s nothing against Jamie Pickett in this matchup: Nickal is just looking to be that guy and grasps major MMA concepts at an impressive speed. Outside of a flash knockout, Pickett is getting rolled over in this one, and the moneyline justifiably indicates your lock of the night.
Prelim: Flyweight: Araujo vs. Ribas
- Moneyline: Araujo +100, Ribas -128
- Prediction: Araujo by Points
- Best Bet: Araujo by Points (+210)
There’s a lot of intrigue around UFC 285’s undercard, but in terms of the best and most compelling matchup from all angles, there’s a lot to unpack with Araujo vs. Ribas.
Ribas was on her way to becoming the next big star at strawweight until she ran into Marina Rodriguez in Abu Dhabi. The exuberant Brazilian is now trying her hand at flyweight, seemingly for the foreseeable future and needs her first big win after being thrown straight to the wolves against Katlyn Chookagian.
Ribas is a fearless striker, occasionally to her detriment, as seen against Chookagian. Her best and most lethal work comes when on top of her opponents. Ribas is nearly unshakeable when in advantageous positions over her opponents, often raining down sickening damage with ground and pound punches and elbows or finding a surefire submission. Against Araujo, she won’t want to play around on her feet.
Araujo has shown flashes of brilliance in her evolving game since arriving in the UFC. She’s one of the fastest and most fluid strikers in the division, and her initial glaring cardio issue has been fixed in recent bouts. Araujo’s combinations and head movement spell trouble for Ribas, who lacks both of those attributes. Should they get into a firefight, Araujo’s overall wrestling improvements should make it harder for Ribas to get her down when potentially desperate.
It’s safe to assume Ribas will start to tuck her chin a bit better after getting somewhat exposed against Chookagian. These habits take time to fully clean up, though. Araujo as a flyweight has just been better, fought higher-quality competition and stylistically is a problem for Ribas, assuming she can keep Ribas from getting on top of her at any point.
