Former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman seeks to regain his title in a trilogy bout with Leon Edwards on Saturday, March 18 in London. Usman suffered a shocking late knockout via head kick in August to lose his belt. He had held it since early 2019.
Edwards (20-3) looks to prove that his win against Usman (20-2) was no fluke. He’ll have the backing of the hometown crowd in his first title defense.
Despite knocking out Usman in their last meeting, the Brit is a +200 moneyline underdog, and Usman is a -250 favorite. Usman was winning on the scorecards until Edwards’ late heroics.
The fight appears priced fairly, so it’s unclear whether betting on either fighter would be a smart decision. It’s hard to argue against Usman being a favorite, but paying -250 is questionable.
If you like Edwards, the better play could be to take him to win by decision at +450. Assuming Usman is extra careful to avoid a head kick this time, Edwards’ most likely path to victory appears to be outpointing the “Nigerian Nightmare.”
Usman could be content grinding out a convincing and safe decision win to regain his belt. However, his +100 odds to win by decision is a questionable price to pay for such an outcome. Usman has more paths to victory than Edwards.
We can’t recommend any bet on this fight, but if you forced us to make one, it would be Edwards by decision (+450). The logic is as follows:
- His confidence is higher than ever
- He’s fighting on home soil
- He’s 31 compared to Usman’s 35
- Usman could be gun shy
Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev
The co-headliner of the card should be a slugfest.
Colorado’s Justin Gaethje is a +175 underdog against rising star Rafael Fiziev of Kazakhstan (-225). The conventional thinking is that Gaethje (23-4) is on the decline after so many brutal fights inside the Octagon. Fiziev (12-1) is four years younger and on the upswing.
Fiziev appears to have the style to go toe-to-toe with Gaethje. The betting odds could be even more in Fiziev’s favor, so if we had to recommend a bet, it would be on him.
Oddsmakers think the fight will likely end via KO/TKO (-175). If you like Fiziev, his KO/TKO odds of +150 could be a reasonable bet. There is a chance the two men are relatively evenly matched and the fight goes to a decision, so the Fiziev moneyline might be a better option than his method-of-victory prop bet.
UFC 286 Start Times
The early prelims kick off at 12:30 p.m. ET, followed by the regular prelims at 3:00 p.m. ET.
The five-fight pay-per-view main card begins at 5:00 p.m. ET, with the Edwards-Usman main event likely starting after 7:00 p.m. ET for U.S. audiences.
The start times are earlier than the typical UFC card due to the event’s location.
Who is Fighting in UFC 286?
Note: Bold indicates the betting favorite.
PPV Main Card
- Welterweight: Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman
- Lightweight: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev
- Welterweight: Gunnar Nelson vs. Bryan Barberena
- Women’s Flyweight: Jennifer Maia vs. Casey O’Neill
- Middleweight: Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze
Preliminary Card
- Featherweight: Jack Shore vs. Makwan Amirkhani
- Lightweight: Chris Duncan vs. Omar Morales
- Lightweight: Sam Patterson vs. Yanal Ashmoz
- Flyweight: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Jafel Filho
Early Preliminary Card
- Featherweight: Lerone Murphy vs. Gabriel Santos
- Middleweight: Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Duško Todorović
- Catchweight: Malcolm Gordon vs. Jake Hadley
- Women’s Flyweight: Joanne Wood vs. Luana Carolina
- Lightweight: Jai Herbert vs. Ľudovít Klein
- Women’s Flyweight: Juliana Miller vs. Veronica Macedo
