We asked this question ahead of UFC 299 on March 9 in Miami: Should Benoit Saint-Denis bettors be worried ahead of his co-main event matchup against Dustin Poirier?
Leading up to the lightweight fight, users on X noticed a gash on the right side of Saint-Denis’ forehead in a pre-fight photo, which many MMA fans and some fighters speculated could be from a staph infection.
Staph is a serious medical condition that can be fatal if untreated.
Based on the history of previous known cases of UFC fighter staph infections, we concluded that the photo shouldn’t be a major factor for betting on the fight. The betting public agreed, as the moneyline odds for the fight (Saint-Denis -200, Poirier +165) didn’t budge at BetMGM, to name one sportsbook.
Saint-Denis was as favored as -245 on the moneyline at DraftKings, with Poirier at +200.
Poirier scored the upset with a vicious second-round knockout of the Frenchman. Saint-Denis came out super aggressive in the first round before fading and falling victim to Poirier’s superior striking skills.
Benoit Saint-Denis may have a staph infection ahead of his #UFC299 fight vs Dustin Poirier 👀 pic.twitter.com/lrQ6VL6GsS
— MMA UNCENSORED (@MMAUNCENSORED1) March 8, 2024
Before the fight, neither Saint-Denis nor the UFC spoke publicly on the gash or the possibility of a staph infection. However, following the fight, Saint-Denis acknowledged that he had an infection and that it hurt his performance.
“Unfortunately, tonight I couldn’t fully express myself,” he wrote in an Instagram post. “My body didn’t keep up after a week of antibiotics to fight an infection. Throughout I was persent but my body was absent, it did not react as usual. I only had one round to give you.”
How Often Do UFC Fighters Have Staph Infections?
Perhaps the most notable example was Kevin Lee’s lightweight interim title fight against Tony Ferguson at UFC 216 in October 2017. The “Motown Phenom” had a strong first round against Ferguson, earning the nod on most pundits’ scorecards.
However, when the second round started, Lee appeared fatigued and eventually ran out of steam in the third round in a submission loss.
Post-fight, Lee admitted he was dealing with a staph infection on his chest, which commentators Joe Rogan and Daniel Cormier pointed out during the action. Cormier aptly noted that a staph infection “will drain you. You will get tired.”
A more recent example came last November when UFC lightweight Mike Breedon started sluggishly against Anshul Jubli at UFC 294. However, he picked up the pace in the second round and finished Jubli in the third round with a highlight reel knockout.
After the fight, Breedon admitted he fought with a staph infection, which caused him to miss weight by 3.5 pounds.
In October 2022, UFC light heavyweight Ilir Latifi received a suspension from the Nevada State Athletic Commission after he revealed he fought through a staph infection in his win over Aleksei Oleinik at UFC Vegas 61.
Betting Considerations
In our (non-medical) opinion, the impact of a staph infection depends on the fighter and the severity of the infection.
Saint-Denis made weight at 155 pounds, a pound lighter than Poirier. Saint-Denis, a former French Army Special Forces member, is about as tough as they come. The concern for Saint-Denis bettors was whether the fight would go into the later rounds.
It turns out that Saint-Denis shared that same worry.
Poirier versus Saint-Denis was a rare five-round co-main event, so that was an extra two rounds of work if a finish didn’t occur. As Cormier pointed out, a staph infection can impact how much a fighter has in the tank.
Saint-Denis is known for finishing his fights early and has only seen the third round once in his UFC tenure.
We didn’t believe you should have bet on Poirier solely based on Saint-Denis’ pre-fight photo. A Poirier moneyline wager should have been based on an analysis of his skills and the matchup, not a photo of his opponent before the bout.
Bottom line: Perhaps the best thing to do is to avoid wagering on a favorite if there is any speculation he might be dealing with staph. If you’re a UFC bettor, paying attention to the news leading up to a card is crucial.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
