Fireworks are sure to fly between two of Brazil’s best fighters headlining UFC Vegas 64 this Saturday night. The preliminary action starts at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card kicking off at 7 p.m.
Top strawweight contenders meet in the octagon when Marina Rodriguez faces Amanda Lemos. Rodriguez is arguably already deserving of a title shot but will look to solidify that claim with her third main event win. Meanwhile, Lemos looks to play spoiler and launch herself into that same conversation.
In this betting preview, we’ll take a look at the full five-fight main card plus one of the more notable preliminary bouts:
- Main Event: Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos
- Co-Main Event: Neil Magny vs. Daniel Rodriguez
- Chase Sherman vs. Josh Parisian
- Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Nate Maness
- Grant Dawson vs. Mark Madsen
- Prelim highlight: Mario Bautista vs. Benito Lopez
Assuming you are in a legal sports betting state, UFC Vegas 64 offers some playable wagers to add to the entertainment of watching high-stakes mixed martial arts.
Let’s see what UFC Vegas 64 has on tap for gamblers.
Note: Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are current at the time of writing and subject to change.
Strawweight: Rodriguez vs. Lemos
- Moneyline: Rodriguez (-235), Lemos (+180)
- Prediction: Rodriguez by Points
- Best Bet: Rodriguez by Points (+160)
This fight being moved off of the big UFC 280 pay-per-view event in Abu Dhabi is a big plus for both fighters regarding exposure. In the matchup itself, however, Lemos is likely more affected than her surging counterpart.
Lemos fought in her first UFC main event this past April, falling short via a stunning standing arm-triangle choke against Jessica Andrade. The loss came in the first round, so Lemos wasn’t tested in the ever-crucial main event rounds.
Danger can come from everywhere when dealing with Lemos, who has many striking and submission finishes on her record. Assuming she paces herself and doesn’t run out of gas, she should find some solid success getting off big shots when countering Rodriguez. In her last fight with Michelle Waterson-Gomez, a patient Lemos showed up in round one before turning things up to get the guillotine win in round two.
Rodriguez has gotten comfortable in matchups like these. Tasked with her stiffest striking test yet in Yan Xiaonan during her last fight, Rodriguez just scraped by in the three-round affair. Lemos doesn’t offer the same striking diversity as Yan but presents a more significant submission and knockout threat. Rodriguez’s ability to survive on the ground with Mackenzie Dern should leave her incredibly confident in her vastly improving grappling defense should Lemos get ahold of her.
On the feet, Rodriguez often pushes the pace and attacks in ferocious flurries when allotted space. Her front kicks to the legs and body are great range finders and can back off a lethal Lemos if utilized appropriately. In tight, Rodriguez has excellent Muay Thai and delivers nasty knees in the clinch.
Rodriguez has eaten very few big shots in her career but survived them when they landed. Lemos won’t be able to match the volume, and with both being great damage dealers, that will be the critical factor. Rodriguez survives for five and wins.
Welterweight: Magny vs. Rodriguez
- Moneyline: Magny (-128), Rodriguez (+100)
- Prediction: Magny by Points
- Best Bet: Magny by Points (+130)
Magny isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but he sure is effective at what he does.
The lanky veteran has some of the better wrestling seen in recent memory – if not ever – from a man of his length. A serviceable boxer, he will strike at range against Rodriguez before shooting in for takedowns or clinch opportunities against the cage.
Whether or not Magny gets multiple takedowns won’t matter. He’ll find a way to stick to Rodriguez, nullifying his opponent’s generally on-point boxing to get a typical Magny decision.
Heavyweight: Sherman vs. Parisian
- Moneyline: Sherman (-136), Parisian (+106)
- Prediction: Parisian by KO/TKO
- Best Bet: Parisian by KO/TKO (+260)
Talk about deja vu, as we get unranked heavyweights before a fight night main card once again.
Statistically, Sherman has had a historically bad UFC career for a heavyweight. “The Vanilla Gorilla” scored his first performance bonus with a late TKO of Jared Vanderaa in his July return. That was mostly due to Vanderaa–who found success of his own–being so willing to trade.
Parisian also needs a lot of work, but he’s far less war-torn than Sherman and mixes up his game more often. Expect Parisian to lean on his wrestling here after each land good shots early. Finding success with his takedowns, Parisian can pound out Sherman for a stoppage on the ground.
Flyweight: Ulanbekov vs. Maness
- Moneyline: Ulanbekov (-245), Maness (+186)
- Prediction: Ulanbekov by Points
- Best Bet: Ulanbekov by Points (-105)
Maness has had a pretty good stint in the UFC thus far. The higher he’s climbed, the more challenging the matchup, as evidenced by his last and this next bout.
Like with all Dagestan-based MMA fighters, everyone knows what to expect. They’re all phenomenal grapplers, thanks to a Sambo background. As of late, many of these competitors have honed their striking to see it catch up with their ground chops, making them even more dangerous.
Ulanbekov should be able to dictate the action wherever it goes, pressuring and punching his way in before shooting and smothering Maness to the best of his abilities. Maness, a relatively capable finisher, will likely need to find an opening for a finish during their 15 minutes.
Lightweight: Dawson vs. Madsen
- Moneyline: Dawson (-245), Madsen (+186)
- Prediction: Dawson by KO/TKO
- Best Bet: Dawson by KO/TKO (+500)
Dawson versus Madsen is one of the better late replacement fights put together in 2022.
Accomplishment-wise, the 38-year-old Madsen is among the best wrestlers in the UFC. While he remains undefeated at 12-0, age appears to be catching up with him fight by fight. Madsen is a capable striker but has taken some punishment in his four previous fights. Without his strong wrestling base, the resume likely wouldn’t be as pristine.
Dawson has shown to be much more of a dominant force as a wrestler in his UFC run. While he’s primarily a featherweight, Dawson’s past three lightweight appearances have provided two brilliant finishes. Historically, if the man finds his opponent’s back, that’s a wrap.
It’s looking about time that Madsen’s chin gets cracked, as Dawson is the superior striker with a decade of youth on his side. Madsen has recently struggled to threaten with much damage, and Dawson is never out, even when down on the cards. Additionally, Dawson’s extremely hungry to make a statement after half a dozen fighters allegedly turned him down.
Prelim: Bantamweight: Bautista vs. Lopez
- Moneyline: Bautista (-330), Lopez (+240)
- Prediction: Bautista by Points
- Best Bet: Bautista to Win (-330)
“Golden Boy” is back.
Lopez is one of the original alum from Contender Series in 2017 and hasn’t been seen since July 2019 after a Vince Morales unanimous decision win. Lopez was always a talented and entertaining fighter, but all the time away feels like a lot to overcome against an active Bautista.
Bautista looks to be finding his stride in his last two wins over Jay Perrin and Brian Kelleher. His rear-naked choke of Kelleher in round one came as a surprise to many in the community, showing perhaps some improved versatility from the former LFA prospect.
Ultimately, Bautista has all the momentum here and has shown he has more ways to win. Even before Lopez’s absence, Bautista could still be argued as being the more well-rounded competitor. Depending on Lopez’s shape, a finish is certainly possible here for Bautista. Regardless, a Bautista win is the safe bet.
