After an insane night of action in New York City, the UFC heads back to the UFC Apex for UFC Vegas 65. Saturday’s fights begin with the prelims starting at 1 p.m. EST and the main card at 4 p.m. EST.
Heavyweights steal the spotlight as fan-favorite Derrick Lewis (26-10) looks to get back in the win column by stopping the momentum of Moldova’s “Polar Bear,” Sergey Spivak (15-3). “The Black Beast” is no stranger to the main event spot, but he’s unfamiliar with the reality of three straight losses, a possibility he faces with a setback against Spivak.
In this betting preview, we’ll take a look at the full five-fight main card plus one notable preliminary bouts:
- Main Event: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivak
- Co-Main Event: Ion Cutelaba vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu
- Chase Sherman vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Andre Fialho vs. Muslim Salikhov
- Jack Della Maddalena vs. Danny Roberts
- Prelim highlight: Jennifer Maia vs. Maryna Moroz
Assuming you are in a legal sports betting state, UFC Vegas 65 offers some playable wagers to add to the entertainment of watching high-stakes mixed martial arts.
Let’s see what UFC Vegas 65 has on tap for sports bettors.
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are current at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Heavyweight: Lewis vs. Spivak
- Moneyline: Lewis (+168), Spivak (-220)
- Prediction: Spivak by KO/TKO
- Best Bet: Spivak by KO/TKO +160
Lewis, 37, appears to be reaching gatekeeper status at heavyweight with his recent cold streak.
In spite of his losing streak, the proud Texan can still shut off anyone’s lights with a single punch. Chris Daukaus found that out in Lewis’s last win, sandwiched between three losses in Lewis’ last four appearances. Power has historically always been the last attribute to go in combat sports, however, and Lewis’ average chin has begun to crumble.
On top of his recent accumulation of damage, Lewis will be facing a rangey and smart striker in Spivak. Expect Spivak to continue utilizing his wrestling experience, which led to five wins in his previous six fights. He’ll get the defenseless Lewis down and batter him from there, ultimately leading to another ground-and-pound stoppage in one of the opening two rounds.
Spivak, like any Lewis opponent, will just have to worry about not getting caught. Otherwise, he should add the biggest name yet to his expanding resume.
Light heavyweight: Cutelaba vs. Nzechukwu
- Moneyline: Cutelaba (-192), Nzechukwu (+148)
- Prediction: Nzechukwu by KO/TKO
- Best Bet: Nzechukwu by KO/TKO +115
Cutelaba may not be in a do-or-die situation just yet, but a third consecutive loss won’t help his job security. The all-action “Hulk” was caught off guard by Johnny Walker’s improvements in the grappling department this past September, and it’s looking likely that the same could happen again on Saturday.
Nzechukwu has deadly power at 205 pounds and will be more than willing to trade with the aggressive Cutelaba. Nzechukwu has made huge strides in his wrestling technique. He put those new skills on display in a dominant win over Karl Roberson in July, and they will come in handy against Cutelaba.
Cutelaba will attempt to overwhelm as per usual, leading to his demise, either getting blasted by punches or takedowns from Nzechukwu. The Nigerian is coming into his own and should show that off with a complete — and possibly quick — performance versus Cutelaba.
Heavyweight: Sherman vs. Acosta-Cortez
- Moneyline: Sherman (+168), Acosta-Cortez (-220)
- Prediction: Acosta-Cortez by KO/TKO
- Best Bet: Acosta-Cortez by KO/TKO -110
Remember the co-main event appetizer highlighted a few weeks back? There’s truth to it.
Sherman and Acosta-Cortez are back after an incredibly quick turnaround. Sherman was supposed to fight at UFC Vegas 64 but saw his scrap with Josh Parisian canceled last minute. Acosta-Cortez, on the other hand, successfully debuted in the promotion, defeating Jared Vanderaa via unanimous decision in a lackluster outing.
Despite Acosta-Cortez absorbing a healthy number of leg kicks in that win, he’s feeling well enough to jump back into the fire on short notice against the “Vanilla Gorilla.” If Sherman was wise, he’d continue to bang on that weak spot. Acosta-Cortez is aware of Sherman’s fondness of boxing and doesn’t foresee that mixed approach coming his way, or he’s just your typical wild fighter, minding little for his well-being.
Vanderaa was unable to unsettle Acosta-Cortez in their bout regardless of his leg kick success. Acosta-Cortez found a home for big right hands and short flurries throughout the 15 minutes, but against Sherman, the opportunity for him to flourish should arise more often with Sherman pushing the pace.
In the end, it will cost Sherman the match when Acosta-Cortez takes his best shots and delivers larger ones in return.
Welterweight: Fialho vs. Salikhov
- Moneyline: Fialho (-108), Salikhov (-118)
- Prediction: Salikhov by KO/TKO
- Best Bet: Salikhov by KO/TKO +300
Speaking of short notice, Fialho and his pursuit of high activity levels was one of the fun under-the-radar stories in 2022. Unfortunately for the thrilling Brazilian, Jake Matthews halted all those hopes in June as he’ll now look to rebound when tasked with an equally hungry Salikhov.
In this pairing, Russia’s “King of Kung Fu” provides a unique skill set with his Chinese-based striking background in wushu and, obviously, kung fu. On paper, Salikhov has fought and beaten the significantly better competition and found greater success than the rising Fialho. Though, the biggest discrepancy in favor of Fialho, 28, will be his 10 years of youth over Salikhov.
Fialho should have a speed advantage, but size, experience, and resiliency all lean toward the veteran who can take a fight anywhere it needs to go to get the job done. Unless Fialho has drastically changed his style after his last loss, he’ll run into another stoppage loss from strikes.
Welterweight: Della Maddalena vs. Roberts
- Moneyline: Della Maddalena (-650), Roberts (+420)
- Prediction: Della Maddalena by KO/TKO
- Best Bet: Della Maddalena by first-round KO/TKO +140
MMA math alone favors rising Australian star Della Maddalena with his beautiful liver punch knockout of Ramazan Emeev compared to Roberts’ split decision of Emeev.
There’s more to like about the surging 26-year-old than just silly equations, however. Della Maddalena has passed every test put in front of him with flying colors. Outside of his contract-earning Contender Series performance in Sept. 2021, Della Maddalena has finished all of his opponents before the judges could get involved.
Going back to resume talk, Roberts has the edge in opponents fought, but he’s never been able to get over those humps and establish himself as a threat at welterweight. Now 35, Roberts is running low on time as a pro. This fight will be nothing more than a stepping stone for Maddalena.
Prelim: Flyweight: Maia vs. Moroz
- Moneyline: Maia (+162), Moroz (-210)
- Prediction: Moroz by points
- Best Bet: Maia to win +162
Flyweight has seen a large influx of fresh talent over the past year and a half, and things are really getting interesting for reigning champion Valentina Shevchenko. At UFC Vegas 65, that trend can continue if Moroz gets past former title challenger and longtime divisional staple Maia.
Moroz has looked sensational in every area of MMA since departing strawweight and joining the 125-pound ranks in 2019. Her only problem has been her activity levels. With only three fights in that span and handfuls of cancellations, Moroz is looking to finally have a second fight in the same calendar year for the first time since 2016.
Maia is being written off at this stage in her career, and it feels fair considering each’s recent performance. Looking at who Maia has fought and lost two though, it could leave bettors in a trap matchup type of situation.
Manon Fiorot, Katlyn Chookagian, and Valentina Shevchenko are the last three fighters to defeat Maia, and all three are literally amongst the UFC’s official top 5 rankings at flyweight. Against Shevchenko, Maia laid some groundwork on how to beat the champion, taking her down and controlling her in critical early moments. Her Muay Thai and strong clinch game have always been her bread and better, but if Maia mixes things up how she’s shown in the past, she can fend off the hopeful future contender.
Moroz has just looked better and has the — albeit extended — momentum at present. It will be a close battle, but distance attacks and well-timed takedowns will put Moroz ahead.
