Betting NFL Field Goal Doinks In The Super Bowl

Several criteria must be met for a proper “doink.”

First, a field goal or extra-point attempt must hit one of the two uprights or the crossbar.

Second, the kick must miss, as balls that clank off the upright but bounce in are only “doinks” in spirit, not reality.

Doink bets are not available at NFL betting sites in the regular season but can be found during postseason games.

Hypothetically, let’s say one out of every two kicks hits the frame of the goalpost. That means the probability of a kick “doinking” would be 50%, which in an ideal (but unrealistic) world would result in +100 odds (1:1 ratio).

Around 85% of field goals and 94% of extra points are made during an NFL season, so misses are rare to begin with. Only a small fraction of those missed kicks come with a doink.

Staying in the hypothetical world, bettors would need enormously long odds to fairly take on such a risk. After all, kickers were over six times more likely to make a kick than miss one in the 2023 season, and the odds of a doink were much longer.

Betting the kick at +450 odds was a square bet, even if it cashed. It can thus be inferred that most sharp bettors were on the “No” side of a doink in the Super Bowl.

“Square” and “sharp” are betting terms that describe bets and bettors.

Square bettors are individuals who place money on outcomes that are unlikely to occur and do not have enough value to make it worth it, or favored outcomes that also do not have enough value to justify.

Sharp bettors are the opposite. They find consistently profitable bets from favorites and underdogs, usually against the grain.

The square side of bets does not always align with the public sentiment, but usually does, which is part of how sportsbooks almost always come out with a profit.

Was betting the doink in the Super Bowl a risk? Absolutely. Did it pay off for those with big chests and swollen confidence? Yes.

Super Bowl LVII was great for bettors with irregular tastes for prop bets. There was an octopus (a touchdown and two-point conversion by the same player), a defensive touchdown and a purple Gatorade shower, among many unexpected outcomes.

Many novelty prop bets, like the coin toss, can be placed in the spirit of good fun. However, bets like the doink lack the mathematical backing to have any semblance of value.

Something to consider when analyzing bets is the precedent. For example, Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce had scored 15 touchdowns in 19 games leading into the Super Bowl, which made it a safe bet that he would score an anytime touchdown (spoiler: he did).

The same rule applies to Jalen Hurts, who had rushed for 15 touchdowns in 17 games entering the championship bout. It was no surprise when he ran for a trio of scores in the game, tying a Super Bowl record.

It is nearly impossible to find up-to-date information on how many kicks have hit the upright or crossbar in an NFL season or across league history. The only reliable way to get that information is to manually review the scoring log from every game and figure it out.

The last Super Bowl doink before Super Bowl LVII was in Super Bowl LI in 2017, when New England Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski banged an extra point off the right post.

There is also no proper way to analyze matchups, precedent, field conditions or anything else that could indicate whether or not a kick will hit the goalpost. The doink is a square bet.

Sharper bets in the prop market would be yardage, touchdowns, team points and other bets with tangible evidence, history and expectations.

However, these typically come with much shorter odds, which is the trade-off. The exception would be if the lines are alternates, which can result in much more reasonable odds.

So, when the Super Bowl rolls around, and you find yourself pondering the doink, remember that it is a bet designed to capitalize on the unguarded emotions of sports fans.

There have been a few infamous instances of double doinks, which are even rarer than regular doinks.

The most recent instance of a postseason double doink came in January 2019. With his team trailing the Philadelphia Eagles 16-15 with 10 seconds remaining, then-Chicago Bears kicker Cody Parkey smashed a 43-yard field goal off the left upright, which then hit the crossbar below before falling harmlessly to the ground.

Former New Orleans Saints kicker Wil Lutz suffered the same fate as Parkey in a 2022 regular-season matchup with the Minnesota Vikings in London. His 61-yard field goal would have tied the score at 28 points, but it was not to be.

Unfortunately, bettors can’t wager on double doinks specifically, but they can still be fun to root for.