Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals Week 5: Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

Can the Bengals’ slumping defense stop the Ravens’ red-hot offense?

Lamar Jackson has carved up Cincinnati in his career, going 8-2 with a 14/4 TD/INT ratio. The two-time NFL MVP is having another stellar season, completing 66.7% of his passes and averaging 77 rushing yards per game.

Baltimore leads the NFL in total yardage and ranks fifth in points per game (26.5). Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone, surrendering 26 points per game (sixth-most) and ranking 25th in rushing yards allowed.

If the Bengals can’t stop the run, they’ll have no chance against Jackson and Derrick Henry. Henry leads the NFL in both rushing yards (480) and rushing touchdowns (five), spearheading the NFL’s best rushing attack.

As good as Joe Burrow is, he doesn’t play defense. Zac Taylor is only 4-7 against the Ravens in his career (including playoffs), so we’re backing Baltimore to stay hot and notch its third win in a row.

Backing the Ravens to cover -2.5 makes a lot of sense, especially thanks to their historically great kicker Justin Tucker. While he’s struggled on longer kicks this year, his career 89.7% field goal success rate is still the highest in NFL history.

Baltimore defeated the Bengals by a field goal in Cincinnati last year and has covered -2.5 in each of its two wins. Across the league, winning teams have covered -2.5 in more than 90% of games this season.

This game might be close, but not that close. Of the Bengals’ last 35 games, only one was decided by less than a field goal.

If you’re backing the Ravens, take them to cover a -2.5 spread as well.

These are two of the best quarterbacks and two of the best offenses in the NFL. The Ravens are first in yardage and fifth in scoring, while the Bengals are ninth in scoring and 11th in yardage.

We’ve already covered Cincinnati’s defensive woes, but Baltimore has struggled on that side of the ball as well, especially through the air. The Ravens have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (257.5), which doesn’t bode well against a passing attack featuring Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Both teams have scored at least 28 points in each of the last two weeks, so this game could be a shootout. There should be plenty of points on both sides, making the Over a smart play.

Lamar Jackson Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Cincinnati will surely be trying to stop Henry, who has cleared 150 rushing yards in each of his last two games. But Jackson’s rushing yards prop is so enticing due to his propensity to rip off chunk plays while evading the pass rush (he’s only been sacked four times in four games.)

Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken will surely draw up run plays for Jackson, who’s averaging a career-best and league-high 7.5 yards per carry. He’s 2-2 against this prop so far this season but finished with 54 yards on just six carries against the Bills on Sunday night.

With the Bengals struggling to stop the run and Jackson being arguably the best rushing quarterback ever, this is a prop worth targeting.

Ja’Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+170)

Chase has scored in each of his last two games and looks like himself again after a quiet start to the season. Higgins returning from injury in Week 3 has taken some of the pressure off Chase, freeing him up for three touchdowns over the last two weeks combined.

Despite strong production from Zack Moss and Chase Brown on the ground, Cincinnati’s offense remains pass-heavy. Burrow has attempted 45 more passes than handoffs (134-89) and will likely need to air it out on Sunday.

Chase is Burrow’s top receiving threat, leading the team in targets (24), catches (19), receiving yards (300) and touchdown catches (three). All three of his touchdowns this year have come on plays of at least 30 yards.

The Ravens are allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt on the road and have allowed four touchdowns of at least 15 yards, including two of 20-plus yards. Look for Chase to break loose for another long score on Sunday.

• Moneyline: Ravens (-146). In a game between two great teams with little margin for error, Baltimore’s massive advantage on the ground should be enough to win.
• Spread: Ravens -2.5 (-115). If the Ravens win they will do so by at least a field goal, especially with Tucker’s dominance as a kicker.
• Total: Over 50.5 Points (-110). This is a very high bar to clear, but this game has all the trappings of a shootout with prolific offenses and reeling defenses on both sides.
• Lamar Jackson Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115). Jackson is one of the greatest rushing quarterbacks of all time, and the Bengals have been dreadful defending the run this year. With Cincinnati selling out to stop Derrick Henry and Jackson’s ability to evade pass rushers, this prop should hit easily.
• Ja’Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown (+170). The Ravens have given up big plays to pass-happy offenses, and Chase is a big-play master who should be on the receiving end of a long strike from Burrow.

Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images.