Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Week 5 SNF: Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

The Cowboys are 2-0 on the road this season – a function of their solid defense and facing two dismal teams in the Giants and Cleveland Browns. But the Steelers are bona fide, especially on defense, where they are fourth in yards against per game (261.3) and second in points against per game (13.3).

This game will depend on how Dallas protects franchise quarterback Dak Prescott, as the Cowboys almost never run the ball. They have a 152-85 pass-to-run ratio this season and their offensive line has allowed Prescott to be sacked 10 times in four games.

Pittsburgh only has 11 sacks this season, but still has a game-wrecking pass rusher in T.J. Watt (three sacks). The Steelers are tied for ninth in passing yards against per game (174.5) and are tied for fifth in the NFL with four interceptions.

While Prescott rarely throws interceptions (1.3% INT rate this year), the Dallas defense has forced only three takeaways in four games. Fields has been ultra-efficient, too, ranking seventh in completion rate (70.6%) and turning the ball over only once this season.

The Cowboys’ defense will struggle without Lawrence and Parsons, especially against the run. They are 27th in the NFL in rushing yards against, giving up almost 146 yards on the ground per game.

Look for Fields and Najee Harris to have a field day running the ball and for Pittsburgh to hold off Dallas in a fun, high-scoring game.

Only six of 65 NFL games this year (9.2%) have been decided by two points or fewer. This game also features two reliable kickers in Brandon Aubrey and Chris Boswell, who are a combined 23-for-25 on field goals this year.

Point is, the winning team is highly likely to win by at least a field goal and cover -2.5. All eight of both teams’ games have been decided by at least three points this year.

Since we’re backing Pittsburgh, we recommend Steelers -2.5.

The Cowboys average 24 points scored and 26 points allowed per game this season. There have been at least 50 total points in three of their four games – a function of their fast-paced, pass-heavy offense.

The Steelers are 0-1 in games with more than 35 points, but they may have found something with their offense in Indy after Fields’ massive game last week.

Pittsburgh doesn’t want to give up 20-plus points, but it can still win against shorthanded Dallas if it does. Thus, the Over’s in play in what could be a 27-20 type of game.

Justin Fields Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Dallas is giving up 145.8 rushing yards per game, and Fields and first-year offensive coordinator Arthur Smith seem likely to exploit that, especially since the Steelers are tied for the most rushing attempts in the league (138).

Fields is 2-2 against this prop this year, but the Cowboys have allowed 130 rushing yards to quarterbacks – including 87 to Lamar Jackson two weeks ago. Fields will run as often as Jackson if given the chance. Without Lawrence lurking in Dallas’ interior line and Parsons setting the edge, Fields could have a huge day running the ball and hit the Over on this prop bet.

• Check out our full Week 5 prop bets.

CeeDee Lamb Anytime Touchdown (-105)

The Cowboys will be down their No. 2 receiver Cooks and Lamb has scored twice in Dallas’ past three games, including his 55-yard score against the Giants last week.

Dallas throws all the time, and you can bet Lamb will be heavily targeted by Prescott. Tight end Jake Ferguson (+205) is also a compelling pick for his potential near the goal line.

When in doubt, go with the Cowboys’ No. 1 receiver to find pay dirt.

• Moneyline: Steelers (-135). The Steelers are unbeaten at home and should bounce back against the short-handed Cowboys. Pittsburgh may not be the better team, but it’s getting Dallas at its most vulnerable.
• Spread: Steelers -2.5 (-112). If you’re backing the Steelers, taking them to cover a field goal is well worth it. They have covered -2.5 in each of their past 20 wins dating back to October 2022, including each of their first three wins this season.
• Total: Over 44 (-112). The Cowboys tend to play shootout-style, high-scoring games. Even though Pittsburgh likes to win by running the ball and playing great defense, this total is low enough for the Over to clear.
• Justin Fields Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-115). Fields should be good for at least 50 since the Cowboys are allowing about 33 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, and Fields is one of the best scrambling QBs in the NFL.
• CeeDee Lamb Anytime Touchdown (-105). These odds aren’t great for an anytime-touchdown scorer, but without Brandin Cooks and given Dallas’ penchant for throwing it, taking Lamb to reach the end zone is a great option.

Photo by Amanda McCoy/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/Tribune News Service via Getty Images.