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Two AFC East rivals will try to snap their three-game losing streaks when they square off in Foxborough in Week 5.
The Miami Dolphins (1-3) had Super Bowl aspirations before the season but are already in danger of falling into the AFC’s abyss. A year after averaging 29-plus points per game, they are dead last in points per game (11.3) and remain without star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who hasn’t played since suffering a concussion in Week 2.
The New England Patriots have also been dreadful offensively, ranking 31st in scoring at 13 points per game and last in total yardage. They upset the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 but have been outscored 77-36 in their three losses since, leading many fans to call for rookie Drake Maye to replace Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
The Dolphins were among the preseason favorites to win the AFC East (+190 at DraftKings Sportsbook). Yet, with Tagovailoa out and third-string QB Tyler Huntley slated to start for the second straight week, they are a +1400 longshot to rally and win the division (the Patriots are +4000).
Both teams are desperate for a win, but which one will prevail? Here’s what to look for in this division rivalry game at our favorite NFL betting sites.
Game Details
- Matchup: Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024 (Week 5)
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Massachusetts)
- Watch: CBS
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Dolphins -108, Patriots -112
- Spread: Dolphins +1 (-115), Patriots -1 (-105)
- Total: Over/Under 36.5 (-108/-112)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Moneyline
While the Dolphins have been dismal offensively, their defense has been solid all year. Despite sitting 26th in points allowed per game (25.8), Miami is allowing the sixth-fewest yards per game (282), including the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (162.5).
The Patriots have played a brutal schedule so far, facing the Bengals, Seattle Seahawks, New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers. Not surprisingly, New England is 24th in yards against per game (353.3) despite sitting a respectable 17th in points against per game (21.8).
This game will likely be ugly, with field position and turnovers likely to decide it. But the Dolphins have been better defensively and have superior weapons (Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle) on offense, so we’ll back Miami to win in what is essentially a pick’em game.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Spread
If you’re betting on the Patriots to win, then betting them to cover a -1 spread is a given.
However, taking the Dolphins to cover +1 at -115 makes very little sense. The only way that wager will cash if Miami doesn’t win is if the game ends in a tie, and there are only usually one or two ties in an entire season.
We’ll back the Dolphins at +1 because we think they’ll win, and thus cover the spread. But if you’re betting on them to cover the spread you should bet on them winning outright at better odds.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Total
This is the lowest total of the season so far, and it’s still way too high. New England has just 16 points over its last two games combined, while Miami has only 15 during the same span.
The Dolphins have excellent receivers and could explode if Huntley figures out how to operate coach Mike McDaniel’s offense, especially against the Patriots’ 28th-ranked pass defense. Huntley had just 96 passing yards Monday night, however, and Miami’s offense is 23rd in passing yards.
Meanwhile, New England’s plodding offense is even worse, ranking dead last in passing yards per game (112.3).
Points will be at a premium here, so take the Under.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Props
De’Von Achane Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+155)
I’m loathe to recommend an anytime scorer prop bet in a game with such a low total, especially one against a Patriots run defense that ranks ninth in rushing yards against per game (99.3). But Huntley will run an RPO-style offense and New England has allowed four rushing touchdowns this season – the same number it’s surrendered through the air.
The Dolphins may put up more yards this week since Huntley had an additional week of practice. If they get the ball near the goal line, it’s worth betting on either Achane or Huntley (+260) to score.
I’ll take Achane, who has the potential to break a long one as well.
Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115)
The Patriots have just four touchdowns this season, and their No. 1 running back has half of them. The Dolphins have allowed seven rushing touchdowns in four games, including one apiece to Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears on Monday night.
Again, it’s hard to wager on a player to score a touchdown in a game that could be low-scoring. But someone is going to score points Sunday, and Stevenson is New England’s best bet, especially at plus odds.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Best Bets Summary
- Moneyline: Dolphins (-108). This game may be dull to people who aren’t fans of these teams, and the punters will likely play a huge role. But look for Miami, which has better players, to claim a narrow road win.
- Spread: Dolphins +1 (-115). This isn’t worth taking, since the only way it hits without the Dolphins winning is a tie. But if they win outright, they’ll cover +1 by default.
- Total: Under 36.5 (-112). No disrespect to the quarterbacks, but few people would pay to watch Tyler Huntley face off against Jacoby Brissett. This may end 14-10 or 17-14, which means the Under is the play.
- De’Von Achane Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+155). Huntley found pay dirt Monday night and may do so again. But Achane will get more touches than the quarterback and is a good bet to find the end zone.
- Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115). If the Patriots score a touchdown, it will likely come from Stevenson, who already has two under his belt this year.
Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images.
