Saints vs. Chiefs Week 5 MNF: Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

The Chiefs have long been one of the NFL’s most dominant teams at home, which is why they’re seeking their third straight Super Bowl win and fifth appearance in the past six years.

But Kansas City was just 5-4 at Arrowhead last year and has squeaked by in its two home wins this year by a combined eight points. However, the Chiefs are still finding ways to win games despite averaging 23 points per game (14th in NFL), largely thanks to their excellent defense (seventh-fewest points allowed).

Still, when the chips are down, it’s nearly impossible to go against Mahomes. This game should be close, but we’re not betting against Kansas City on the moneyline until someone beats them, especially given New Orleans’ penchant for narrow losses.

Now, the spread is a different story. The Chiefs are 2-2 against a 5.5-point spread this season, but have failed to cover a touchdown in 10 of their past 18 games and are 3-4 against that spread in their past seven games at home.

Meanwhile, the Saints have covered +5.5 in every game this year. Derek Carr also has a history of playing well at Arrowhead, boasting a 26:17 TD/INT ratio there.

New Orleans has been unlucky the last two weeks but is still one of the more talented teams in football. The Saints should do enough to stay within six points here, and definitely seven points if the line balloons.

The Chiefs have scored points against solid defenses in the past, but their scoring has decreased every week this season. They’ll be shorthanded this week without Rice and Pacheco, so don’t be surprised if that trend continues.

The Saints have the most prolific offense in football, though most of their points came in Weeks 1 and 2. They’ve only scored 36 points since then but their defense has been tremendous, yielding just 17.5 points per game this season (sixth-fewest).

This total seems a bit too high, as this could be a relatively low-scoring defensive battle. If Kansas City wins, the Under is almost assured of hitting, as it will be relying on its defense and run game with so many offensive stars out of the lineup.

Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130)

We typically don’t like fading a two-time MVP and three-time Super Bowl MVP, but Mahomes has just six passing touchdowns in four games. Kansas City’s offense isn’t as potent as it’s been in years past, especially without Rice and Pacheco.

Mahomes is 2-2 against this number and 1-1 at home. Although there’s always the potential for him to make magic with Travis Kelce, the Saints have given up just one passing touchdown all season (Dak Prescott in Week 2.)

It’s also concerning that Mahomes has yet to find Kelce for a score, suggesting the latter is in decline. Accordingly, two passing TDs seem unlikely for Mahomes, especially against New Orleans’ defense.

• Check out our full Week 5 MNF prop bets.

Alvin Kamara Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

As tempting as it is to back Kamara to surpass the 55 yards required for his rushing prop, the Chiefs are giving up just 99 rushing yards per game.

But that doesn’t mean Carr won’t get him involved in the passing game, especially since the Saints love calling short passes and screens against aggressive defenses.

Kamara has topped this prop in three straight games and is coming off a season-high seven catches on nine targets last week. With his speed, he only needs a few catches to have a shot at this.

Look for Kamara to be heavily involved this week and notch at least 32 receiving yards.

• Moneyline: Chiefs (-245). As tempting as it is to back the underrated Saints, one of these teams is finding ways to win and the other is finding ways to lose. I’ll back Mahomes.
• Spread: Saints +5.5 (-112). I’d love to see this line move to +6, and you should move it to at least +7.5 as part of a same-game-parlay. Both teams have been playing tight games lately, so we like New Orleans’ chances to cover.
• Total: Under 43 (-108). Both of these teams have good, underrated defenses while both offenses are overrated and have struggled lately. We like the Under to hit on Monday night, especially as the Chiefs adjust to life without Rice.
• Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130). New Orleans’ defense has been very stingy by the goal line, and Kansas City may want to get Kareem Hunt involved in the red zone. Thus, it may not be a huge night for Mahomes.
• Alvin Kamara Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-120). Kamara has surpassed this receiving prop in three straight games and is always a threat to rack up yards on short passes, especially on Carr dump-offs if Kansas City brings the pressure on defense.

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