Wimbledon’s first of two individual finals will take to center court Saturday for the women’s singles final.
The match pits Ons Jabeur, the No. 6 seed and 2022 finalist, against a Cinderella story in Markéta Vondroušová. To reach this point, Jabeur captured three straight wins against top-10 players.
Meanwhile, Vondroušová’s headline win came over Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals.
Jabeur finds herself as a decent-sized favorite in the final. The Tunisian international is -210 on the moneyline at BetMGM Sportsbook, while Vondroušová is +175 on the moneyline.
The spread is 3.5 games in favor of Jabeur while the over/under is 21.5 games.
Wimbledon Women’s Singles Final Best Bet
Ons Jabeur -3.5 Games (-115)
Vondroušová’s run is impressive, but Jabeur feels destined to claim the year’s third major.
Despite facing one fewer seeded player, Jabeur appears to have endured a more difficult run to this point. Remember, this is a player who defeated former Wimbledon winners Petra Kvitová and Elena Rybakina to reach the final.
Additionally, Jabeur took down No. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka in the semifinals as an underdog. Entering that match, Sabalenka had suffered only seven losses on all surfaces this year.
While it feels dangerous to back a player coming off a massive win, Vondroušová appears to lack big-match experience. For her entire career, the Czech native owns only one singles title while Jabeur possesses four, including one this season.
From an underlying metrics standpoint, Jabeur owns the more impressive record. In her last two matches, she placed her first serve at a 58.5% rate, per wimbledon.com. That represents a marked improvement from the third and fourth round, where she combined to make only 44.5% of first serves.
If there’s one area where Jabeur excels, however, it’s her ability to defend first serve points. Across her last four matches, she’s winning those points at a 78.3% clip.
On the flip side, Vondroušová has struggled to defend her first serve. Across her last three matches, she’s winning her first serve points at only a 54% rate.
Given Jabeur’s return prowess—she’s won 58.3% of break points over her last three matches—that should give her a clear edge in all aspects of play.
There’s one more element bettors should note for this match. This final shapes up as a good revenge spot for Jabeur, who fell to Vondroušová at the Indian Wells Masters back in March.
Given Jabeur’s penchant for grass court play, however, the season series between these women should even out here.
Accordingly, lay the games with Jabeur as she seeks her first major title.
